Deal Sniper

Josue De Paula

CF · Double-A · 21.0y · #1 of 7,922 we rate

The player
ELITE PROFILE

96 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

15 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Chrome Josue De Paula 1st…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Elite prospect, untested market.

Josue De Paula scores 96 out of 100 (#1 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.

  • Contact: plus-plus

    14.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 94% at his level.

  • The case is strengthening

    Baseball momentum 90/100 — ahead of the thesis. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Moved up and held it

    High-A to Double-A.

  • Premium position

    CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Power: plus

    .249 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 91% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-JDE — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 4 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 5 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-JDE

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 4 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales

What is for sale right now

15 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 15 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 9 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2023 BOWMAN CHROME JOSUE DE PAULA 1ST BOWMAN AUTO ATOMIC #D 060/100 PSA 9 MINT

    /100 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 16d

    Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $2505.95

    modeled $289

    WATCH

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Auto JOSUE DE PAULA 1st prospect Speckle /299 #CPA-JDE PSA 9

    /299 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 8d

    Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $241

    WATCH

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Mojo Refractor #BCP-111 Josue De Paula 1st Beckett Slab Auto Dodgers

    Mojo Refractor · raw · condition not stated · listed 8d

    Not a core card · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $121.50

    modeled ~$45.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Josue De Paula 2023 Bowman Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-JDE Dodgers

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 17d

    Waiting on sales

    $259.99

    modeled ~$49.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Josue De Paula #CPA-JDE Autograph Auto 1st Rookie RC - ⚾️📈🔥

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 11d

    Waiting on sales

    $267.94

    modeled ~$49.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Josue De Paula #CPA-JDE Autograph Auto 1st Rookie RC - ⚾️📈🔥

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1d

    Waiting on sales

    $267.94

    modeled ~$49.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Josue De Paula, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $60.75–$127.58, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $259.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $259.99 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Mojo RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $121.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $121.50 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -53%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $599.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $599.99 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +394%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

8 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 61 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 61 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    66

    plus-plus · better than 94% at his level

    14.3% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    63

    plus · better than 91% at his level

    .249 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    58

    plus · better than 80% at his level

    13.7% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    57

    above average · better than 75% at his level

    33 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    66

    plus-plus · better than 94% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .976 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    69

    plus-plus · better than 97% at his level · context, not a skill

    +3.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 85th percentile of the cohort, production at the 94th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 85 and his production sits at 94, a gap of -9. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 34th percentile.

Will he get there?

Strong chance 7.9 / 10

  • already at Double-A
  • hitting well — 0.976 OPS in 524 PA (not ranked against his level)
  • form is climbing

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

524

AVG

.315

OBP

.412

SLG

.564

OPS

.976

better than 94%

HR

25

SB

29

BB%

13.7

K%

14.3

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .827 to .976 after moving up to Double-A. That is the shape of a breakout.

Moved up from High-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.827▲.976

Power

.158▲.249

Walks

19.0%▼13.7%

Strikeouts

20.2%▼14.3%

Last season, 426 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market15 listed · 15 eBay-verified · 9 not shown above
Listings
15

15 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$121.50
Median ask
$304.49
Cheapest 1st auto
$121.50
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$304.49

Latest eBay verification: 12 hours ago.

The other 9 cards

  • $304.492023 Bowman Chrome Josue De Paula Lava Refractor Auto /399 PSA Signed 1st RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $599.992023 Bowman Chrome JOSUE DE PAULA 1st Prospect Refractor AUTO 009/499 DodgersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $634.992023 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto JOSUE DE PAULA #CPA-JDE PSA 10 AUTO -NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $1109.982023 Bowman Chrome Josue De Paula 1st Prospect Auto Speckle /299 PSA 10 DodgersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Josue De Paula 1st Bowman AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Josue De Paula 2023 Bowman Chrome Pearl Refractor 1st Auto 9/10 PSA 10 POP 1 NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman 1st Chrome Auto Josue De Paula Speckle Refractor /299 PSA 10 💎NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Josue De Paula 2023 Bowman 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Prospect #CPA-JDE DodgersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Josue De Paula 1st Bowman Chrome Sapphire Refractor Auto PSA Auto Grade 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now