Michael Carico
C · South Bend Cubs · High-A · 23.0y · #4382 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
35 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
49 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Michael Carico Auto…. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Michael Carico scores 35 out of 100 (#4382 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: plate discipline: plus-plus — 25.3% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 98% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 99 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Contact: below average
32.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
OPS slipping
.842 last season to .644 this one.
Power slipping
.182 last season to .096 this one.
Plate discipline: plus-plus
25.3% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 98% at his level.
Moved up and held it
Low-A to High-A, though the prior season is a thin sample.
Premium position
C — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
99 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CDA-MCA — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 8 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 8 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CDA-MCA
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 8 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $3.40 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
49 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 49 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 43 are under "The whole live market".
2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Michael Carico Auto True Green Refractor 78/99 Cubs
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 355d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled ~$180.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
MICHAEL CARICO 2023 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT 1ST PURPLE AUTO /250
/250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 34d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$14.44
modeled ~$30.99
LOTTERY
MICHAEL CARICO 2023 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT 1ST PURPLE AUTO /250
/250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$15.44
modeled ~$30.99
LOTTERY
2023 Bowman Draft Michael Carico Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CDA-MCA Cubs PSA 9 MT
base · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 210d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$14.78
modeled ~$44.00
LOTTERY
2023 Bowman Draft Michael Carico 1st Chrome Prospect Auto #CDA-MCA
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 122d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$4.99
modeled ~$8.00
LOTTERY
Michael Carico 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Autographs Cubs 1st Auto
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 414d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$5.95
modeled ~$8.00
LOTTERY
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $3.40, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $3.40 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Purple /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $14.44, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $14.44 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +325%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $28.47, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $28.47 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +97%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Red Wave /5 and underTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $306.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $306.98 live
- Scarcity
- 5 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +978%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
1 listing sits in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 52 on the 20–80 scale, against 492 hitters at High-A
What he is good at
skills overall 52 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 492 hitters at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
42
below average · better than 21% at his level
32.3% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
45
below average · better than 31% at his level
.096 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
71
plus-plus · better than 98% at his level
25.3% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
49
average · better than 45% at his level
12 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
46
below average · better than 34% at his level · the result, not a skill
.644 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
51
average · better than 53% at his level · context, not a skill
0.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 49th percentile of the cohort, production at the 34th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 49 and his production sits at 34, a gap of +15. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 492 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 71th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.0 / 10
- old for High-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 492 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
99
AVG
.164
OBP
.384
SLG
.260
OPS
.644
better than 34%
HR
1
SB
2
BB%
25.3
K%
32.3
Is this player getting better?
Down from .842 to .644 OPS, but he moved up to High-A — a step back at a harder level is normal — but last season was a small sample, so go easy on it.
Moved up from Low-A to High-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.842▼.644
Power
.182▼.096
Walks
20.0%▲25.3%
Strikeouts
23.3%▲32.3%
Last season, 30 times at bat — a small enough sample that these gaps might just be luck. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market49 listed · 49 eBay-verified · 43 not shown above
- Listings
- 49
- Lowest live
- $3.40
- Median ask
- $7.84
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $4.99
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $14.44
49 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 43 cards
- $5.992023 Bowman Draft Michael Carico Chrome Auto 1st #COA-MCA Chicago CubsLOTTERY
- $6.502023 Bowman Draft Michael Carico 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CDAMCA Chicago Cubs 3LOTTERY
- $6.502023 Bowman Draft Michael Carico 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CDAMCA Chicago Cubs 2LOTTERY
- $6.502023 Bowman Draft Michael Carico 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CDAMCA Chicago Cubs 1LOTTERY
- $7.25Michael Carico 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Autograph Auto Card #CDA-MCALOTTERY
- $7.25Michael Carico 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Autograph Auto A Card #CDA-MCALOTTERY
- $8.982023 Bowman Draft Michael Carico 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CDA-MCA Chicago CubsLOTTERY
- $9.002023 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st Michael Carico Auto Chicago Cubs #CDA-MCALOTTERY
- $9.27Michael Carico - 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Bowman Autograph - ON-CARD AUTOLOTTERY
- $9.382023 Bowman Draft Michael Carico 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO #CDA-MCA CubsLOTTERY
- $10.952023 Bowman Draft Michael Carico CHROME AUTO signed Cubs 1stLOTTERY
- $11.602023 Michael Carico Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto RC #CDA-MCA (H1175)LOTTERY
- $13.982023 Bowman Draft Michael Carico 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CDA-MCA Chicago CubsLOTTERY
- $13.99MICHAEL CARICO 2023 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CDA-MCALOTTERY
- $16.88MICHAEL CARICO 2023 Bowman Draft #CDA-MCA 1st Chrome AutoLOTTERY
- —2023 Bowman Draft MICHAEL CARICO 1st Chrome Auto CDA-MCA - CubsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Michael Carico Auto #CDA-MCA Cubs ProspectNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Draft Michael Carico Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CDA-MCA CubsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Michael Carico 1st Prospect AUTONEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Topps 1st Bowman Chrome Michael Carico Auto NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —MICHAEL CARICO, 2023 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTO, CHICAGO CUBS🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Autograph CDA-MCA MICHAEL CARICO 1st Auto - CubsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Michael Carico 1st Prospect Autograph Auto Cubs Prospect RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $28.472023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 Michael Carico Auto 0c6NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Draft Michael Carico 1st Chrome Prospect Auto #CDA-MCANEEDS EVIDENCE
- $3.40Michael Carico 2023 Bowman Draft #CDA-MCA Chrome Prospect Autographs AutoLOTTERY
- $3.40Michael Carico 2023 Bowman Draft #CDA-MCA Chrome Prospect Autographs AutoLOTTERY
- $7.192023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Michael Carico #CDA-MCA Auto z7dLOTTERY
- $7.262023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Michael Carico #CDA-MCA Auto 7s2LOTTERY
- $7.262023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Michael Carico #CDA-MCA Auto 13g0LOTTERY
- $7.522023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Michael Carico #CDA-MCA Auto 1u5yLOTTERY
- $7.532023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Michael Carico #CDA-MCA Auto 1q9uLOTTERY
- $7.542023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Michael Carico #CDA-MCA Auto 5c2LOTTERY
- $7.772023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Michael Carico #CDA-MCA Auto 19ygLOTTERY
- $7.802023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Michael Carico #CDA-MCA Auto g1kLOTTERY
- $7.822023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Michael Carico #CDA-MCA Auto 4f5LOTTERY
- $7.862023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Michael Carico #CDA-MCA Auto 0zu6LOTTERY
- $8.102023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Michael Carico #CDA-MCA Auto 0m8rLOTTERY
- $8.122023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Michael Carico #CDA-MCA Auto v9tLOTTERY
- $8.122023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Michael Carico #CDA-MCA Auto 0vw3LOTTERY
- $8.122023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Michael Carico #CDA-MCA Auto a8rLOTTERY
- $306.982023 Bowman Draft Michael Carico 1st Red Wave Auto 3/5 Chicago CubsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Topps 1st Bowman Chrome Michael Carico Auto PASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run