Pablo Guerrero
CF · Low-A · 20.0y · #158 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- STRONG PROSPECT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
76 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
8 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2024 Bowman Chrome Pablo Guerrero 1st Mini… at $408. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Strong prospect, untested market.
Pablo Guerrero scores 76 out of 100 (#158 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 83% of the players there.
We have 1 confirmed sale of his cards in the last 90 days, but no standardized benchmark card yet, so the price side rests on whatever is listed rather than on one comparable series.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: thin comp evidence — 1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.
The signal
Young for the level
+1.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 83% of the players there.
Speed: below average
8 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 39/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Power: plus
.236 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 92% at his level.
Premium position
CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Plate discipline: plus
16.7% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 84% at his level.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Thin comp evidence
1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $20.99 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
8 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 8 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 2 are under "The whole live market".
2024 Bowman Chrome Pablo Guerrero 1st Auto Texas Rangers
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 90d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 55h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$20.99
modeled ~$30.00
LOTTERY
2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor 293/299 Pablo Guerrero Auto 3q5
/299 · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$103.57
modeled ~$35.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2024 Bowman Chrome Pablo Guerrero 1st Auto True Green Refractor /99 PSA 10
/99 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 6d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 89h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$254.11
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2024 Bowman Chrome Pablo Guerrero 1st Mini Diamond Refractor Auto RC /100 PSA 10
/100 · PSA 10 · listed 4d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$407.98
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2024 Bowman Chrome Pablo Guerrero #/299 Speckle Refractor Auto PSA 10 Rangers🔥
/299 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 4d
Not a core card · 2 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$505.95
modeled ~$787.77
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2024 Bowman Chrome Pablo Guerrero #/150 Reptilian Blue Refractor Auto PSA 10🔥
/150 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 4d
Not a core card · 2 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$505.95
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Pablo Guerrero, just what the money can do today.
- Cole CarriggRefractor$14.98Watch42% under fair value
Compared within $10.49–$22.04, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder1 version of his cards in 9, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing 9.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- Blue /150THIN EVIDENCE
1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- nothing listed
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
7 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 56 on the 20–80 scale, against 530 hitters at Low-A
What he is good at
skills overall 56 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 530 hitters at Low-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
54
above average · better than 65% at his level
22.4% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
64
plus · better than 92% at his level
.236 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
60
plus · better than 84% at his level
16.7% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
45
below average · better than 32% at his level
8 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
66
plus-plus · better than 95% at his level · the result, not a skill
1.022 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
60
plus · better than 83% at his level · context, not a skill
+1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 68th percentile of the cohort, production at the 95th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 88% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 68 and his production sits at 95, a gap of -27. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 529 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 12th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.5 / 10
- hitting well — 1.022 OPS in 156 PA (not ranked against his level)
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Low-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 530 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
156
AVG
.331
OBP
.455
SLG
.567
OPS
1.022
better than 95%
HR
7
SB
2
BB%
16.7
K%
22.4
Is this player getting better?
Hitting better than last season — .621 up to 1.022 OPS.
Still at Low-A, the same level as last season.
OPS
.621▲1.022
Power
.110▲.236
Walks
11.4%▲16.7%
Strikeouts
25.0%▼22.4%
Last season, 396 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold for1 logged sale
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
Only 1 sale logged so far. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
- 2026-08-25 — $59.99 · /150 · graded 9 · tracked disappearance — not a confirmed sale proof
The whole live market8 listed · 8 eBay-verified · 2 not shown above
- Listings
- 8
- Lowest seen
- $20.99
- Median ask
- $407.98
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $20.99
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $254.11
8 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 12 hours ago.
The other 2 cards
Worth reading for this player
- Grading break-even calculator — his cards have sold graded, so the raw-versus-graded gap is a real decision here
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Raw vs graded Bowman cards — his sales include graded copies alongside raw ones