Blake Mitchell
C · High-A · 22.0y · #706 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Expensive
- What to do
- Wait
61 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
His best base card asks $30.99, over the $29.99 that card has sold in.
Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Draft Blake Mitchell 1st Chrome…. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Solid prospect, expensive market.
Blake Mitchell scores 61 out of 100 (#706 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 74% of the players there.
His core Bowman card has been selling at $22–37 off 1 confirmed sale.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: swing-and-miss — contact grades 40 on the 20–80 scale (34.1% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
The signal
Young for the level
+1.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 74% of the players there.
Contact: well below
34.1% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 39/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Plate discipline: plus-plus
22.5% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 96% at his level.
Premium position
C — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Power: plus
.230 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 87% at his level.
Why now
3 new copies listed this week
Fresh supply on this exact card. More choice, and more downward pressure.
What could go wrong
Swing-and-miss
Contact grades 40 on the 20–80 scale (34.1% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman draft chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
Asks above the sold band
Every live card of his we can price is asking more than these have actually sold for, so today's entry is at a premium.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CDA-BMI — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
$22.49–37.49midpoint $29.99
Evidence limited· 1 salemost recent 2026-08-22 · 2 listed now
- 7 days
- not enough sales
- 30 days
- not enough sales
- 90 days
- not enough sales
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2023 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CDA-BMI
Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto
The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Blake Mitchell #CDA-BMI Auto 11o2 at $49.52, 65% over the $29.99 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
That card at or under $29.99 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
- On his best-priced card: not a core card.
What is for sale right now
11 cards of his are listed, 1 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 10 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 4 are under "The whole live market".
2023 Bowman Chrome Draft Blake Mitchell 1st Prospect Rookie Auto #CDA-BMI RC SP
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 6d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $29.99
PASS · 10% under
Blake Mitchell Auto 2023 Bowman Draft #CDA-BMI Chrome Prospect Autographs
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 2d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$30.99
sold $29.99
PASS
2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Mega Box Purple Refractor Blake Mitchell Auto v9t
Purple Refractor · raw · condition not stated · listed 1d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$31.12
sold $29.99
PASS
2023 Bowman Draft Blake Mitchell Royals 1st Bowman RC Auto Chrome #CDA-BMI
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 13d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $29.99
PASS
2023 Bowman Draft Blake Mitchell #CDA-BMI Chrome Auto Refractor /499 1st Bowman
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 12d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$51.50
modeled $15.52–60.35
PASS
2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Blake Mitchell Blue Refractor Auto /150 PSA 10 1st 💎💎
/150 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 92d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$374.99
modeled ~$464.99
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $30.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $30.99 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Purple RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $31.12, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $31.12 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +0%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $51.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $51.50 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +66%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
3 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 56 on the 20–80 scale, against 492 hitters at High-A
What he is good at
skills overall 56 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 492 hitters at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
40
well below · better than 16% at his level
34.1% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
61
plus · better than 87% at his level
.230 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
68
plus-plus · better than 96% at his level
22.5% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
56
above average · better than 73% at his level
32 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
61
plus · better than 86% at his level · the result, not a skill
.873 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
56
above average · better than 74% at his level · context, not a skill
+1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 68th percentile of the cohort, production at the 86th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 68 and his production sits at 86, a gap of -18. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 492 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 22th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.3 / 10
- old for High-A
- hitting well — 0.873 OPS in 466 PA (not ranked against his level)
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 492 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
466
AVG
.230
OBP
.413
SLG
.460
OPS
.873
better than 86%
HR
21
SB
25
BB%
22.5
K%
34.1
Is this player getting better?
Hitting better than last season — .668 up to .873 OPS.
Still at High-A, the same level as last season.
OPS
.668▲.873
Power
.089▲.230
Walks
20.8%▲22.5%
Strikeouts
32.9%▲34.1%
Last season, 216 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market11 listed · 11 eBay-verified · 4 not shown above
- Listings
- 11
- Lowest seen
- $30.99
- Median ask
- $49.52
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $51.50
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $51.50
11 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 4 cards
- —2023 Bowman Draft Blake Mitchell 1st Chrome AUTO True ORANGE /25 PSA 10 POP 6NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Baseball - Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-BM Royals - BLAKE MITCHELLPASS
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Prospects Blake Mitchell Auto #BMA-BMI Purple /199 PSA 9 MINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $49.522023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Blake Mitchell #CDA-BMI Auto 11o2PASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run