Marvin Alcantara
SS · Portland Sea Dogs · Double-A · 21.0y · #813 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
60 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
10 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2024 Bowman Chrome - Marvin Alcantara…. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Solid prospect, untested market.
Marvin Alcantara scores 60 out of 100 (#813 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Young for the level
+3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
Plate discipline: well below
6.5% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 39/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Contact: plus
18.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 83% at his level.
Premium position
SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Speed: above average
29 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 69% at his level.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, No base auto listed — cheapest numbered option shown; premium ratio unavailable. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
10 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 10 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 4 are under "The whole live market".
2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor MARVIN ALCANTARA AUTO #310/499 Red Sox
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$5.04
modeled ~$15.27
LOTTERY
2024 Bowman Chrome Marvin Alcantara Speckle Refractor Auto /299 PSA 9
/299 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 156d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$36.90
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2024 Bowman Chrome Marvin Alcantara /250 Refractor 1st Prospects Auto Red Sox 🔥
/250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 11d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$70.98
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Marvin Alcantara 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Green Refractor Auto /99 #CPA-MA PSA 10
/99 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 9d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$106.74
modeled ~$129.99
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2024 Bowman 1st Marvin Alcantara CPA-MA Auto True Green 24/99 SGC 10/10 Red Sox
/99 · SGC 10 · takes offers · listed 4d
Not a core card · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2024 Bowman Chrome - Marvin Alcantara #CPA-MA 1st Bowman Auto Purple /250
/250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled ~$7.49
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder2 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- Red Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $5.04, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $5.04 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Red Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $70.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $70.98 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +1308%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
5 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 51 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
60
plus · better than 83% at his level
18.3% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
48
average · better than 43% at his level
.130 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
41
well below · better than 19% at his level
6.5% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
55
above average · better than 69% at his level
29 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
46
below average · better than 34% at his level · the result, not a skill
.656 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
69
plus-plus · better than 97% at his level · context, not a skill
+3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 54th percentile of the cohort, production at the 34th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 80% of the players he is measured against.
The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.
How this is read: his skills average 54 and his production sits at 34, a gap of +20. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 80th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 6.0 / 10
- already at Double-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
306
AVG
.238
OBP
.288
SLG
.368
OPS
.656
better than 34%
HR
6
SB
15
BB%
6.5
K%
18.3
Is this player getting better?
Hitting better than last season — .587 up to .656 OPS.
Still at Double-A, the same level as last season.
OPS
.587▲.656
Power
.072▲.130
Walks
8.7%▼6.5%
Strikeouts
16.2%▲18.3%
Last season, 357 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market10 listed · 10 eBay-verified · 4 not shown above
- Listings
- 10
- Lowest live
- $5.04
- Median ask
- $53.94
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $70.98
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $70.98
10 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 4 cards
- —Topps 2024 1st Bowman Chrome Marvin Alcantara Prospect Auto Black /10 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Marvin Alcantara 2024 Bowman Chrome #CPA-MA 1st AUTO Yellow Refractors #/75NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Marvin Alcantara 2024 1st Bowman Chrome #CPA-MA AUTO Gold Shimmer #/50NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome 1st #'d 4/5 PSA 10! Marvin Alcantara Red Refractor Auto SOXNEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run