Deal Sniper

Victor Acosta

SS · Dayton Dragons · High-A · 22.0y · #1303 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

57 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

40 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is Victor Acosta Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto… at $5.07. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Victor Acosta scores 57 out of 100 (#1303 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 74% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +1.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 74% of the players there.

  • Plate discipline: well below

    6.6% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 39/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Contact: plus

    19.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 78% at his level.

  • Premium position

    SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Power: above average

    .186 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 75% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 14 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 14 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 14 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /499 at $3.00 costs 1.00× base, and print run alone suggests 1.15×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

40 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 40 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 34 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome 1ST AUTO Victor Acosta *BIN710

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 780d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $3.00

    modeled ~$9.77

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome 1ST Refractor AUTO Victor Acosta 372/499

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 933d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $3.00

    modeled ~$13.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Victor Acosta 2021 1st Bowman Chrome Prospects Auto #CPA-VA

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 588d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $3.99

    modeled ~$9.77

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Baseball - 1st Auto CPA-VM San Diego Padres - VICTOR ACOSTA

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 47d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $4.23

    modeled ~$9.77

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • VICTOR ACOSTA 2021 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTOGRAPH PADRES #CPA-VA AUTO

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 207d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $4.49

    modeled ~$9.77

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Victor Acosta 2021 Bowman Chrome Auto CPA-VA 1st Bowman Padres

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 390d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $4.99

    modeled ~$9.77

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $3.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $3.00 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • MojoTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $17.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $17.98 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +499%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • ShimmerTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $19.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $19.98 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +11%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $3.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $3.00 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -85%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

19 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 52 on the 20–80 scale, against 492 hitters at High-A

What he is good at

skills overall 52 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 492 hitters at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    58

    plus · better than 78% at his level

    19.3% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    57

    above average · better than 75% at his level

    .186 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    40

    well below · better than 16% at his level

    6.6% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    51

    average · better than 54% at his level

    18 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    56

    above average · better than 72% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .793 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    56

    above average · better than 74% at his level · context, not a skill

    +1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 56th percentile of the cohort, production at the 72th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 56 and his production sits at 72, a gap of -16. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 492 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 25th percentile.

Will he get there?

Long shot 4.9 / 10

  • old for High-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 492 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

166

AVG

.257

OBP

.350

SLG

.443

OPS

.793

better than 72%

HR

4

SB

5

BB%

6.6

K%

19.3

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season — .619 up to .793 OPS.

Still at High-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.619▲.793

Power

.055▲.186

Walks

9.7%▼6.6%

Strikeouts

18.7%→19.3%

Last season, 391 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market40 listed · 40 eBay-verified · 34 not shown above
Listings
40

40 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$3.00
Median ask
$17.98
Cheapest 1st auto
$3.00
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$3.00

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 34 cards

  • $5.07Victor Acosta Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto #CPA-VA 1st Padres On CardLOTTERY
  • $5.11Victor Acosta 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-VA San Diego PadresLOTTERY
  • $5.85VICTOR ACOSTA 2021 Bowman Chrome #CPA-VA 1st Prospect Auto San Diego PadresLOTTERY
  • $5.99Victor Acosta 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Padres CPA-VALOTTERY
  • $8.60Victor Acosta Auto Signed 2021 1st Bowman Chrome #BCP-151 San Diego PadresLOTTERY
  • $11.272021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Victor Acosta #CPA-VA Auto 0l44LOTTERY
  • $14.982021 Bowman Chrome Victor Acosta Auto 1st Prospect #BCP-151 PadresLOTTERY
  • $17.79VICTOR ACOSTA 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto HGA 9.5 SAN DIEGO PADRESLOTTERY
  • $17.982021 Bowman Chrome Victor Acosta Auto 1st Prospect #BCP-151 Padres MojoLOTTERY
  • $19.982021 Bowman Chrome Victor Acosta Auto 1st Prospect #BCP-151 Padres ShimmerLOTTERY
  • $24.792021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Victor Acosta PSA 10 GEM MT Auto 0ok8LOTTERY
  • $24.802021 Bowman Chrome Victor Acosta Prospect Auto #CPAVA Pirates - PSA 9LOTTERY
  • $24.802021 Bowman Chrome Victor Acosta Prospect Auto #CPAVA Padres - PSA 9LOTTERY
  • $26.002021 Bowman Chrome Victor Acosta Auto PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $27.092021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 210/499 Victor Acosta PSA 9 MINT Auto 0q4sNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $27.092021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor Victor Acosta PSA 9 MINT Auto 0q4sNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $30.532021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Victor Acosta #CPA-VA PSA 10 GEM MT Auto 12wcNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $34.002021 Bowman Chrome Victor Acosta Auto Speckle Refractor /299 CPA-VA PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $35.142021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 315/499 Victor Acosta BGS 9 MINT Auto 16i3NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $35.542021 Bowman Chrome Victor Acosta Prospect Auto BGS 9.5 Auto 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $36.292021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Victor Acosta #CPA-VA PSA 9 MINT Auto lh0NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $38.82VICTOR ACOSTA 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st REFRACTOR AUTO PSA 10 Gem Mint SP /499 RedsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $39.742021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Victor Acosta #CPA-VA PSA 9 MINT Auto 05nsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 1st Bowman Chrome Victor Acosta Auto Orange Shimmer Refractor /25 PadresNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Victor Acosta Red Shimmer Ref Auto #2/5 Padres RC PSA 10 1STNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Victor Acosta 2021 1st Bowman Chrome Auto CPA-VANEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —VICTOR ACOSTA AUTO 1st 2021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Autograph Rookie Card RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Topps Victor Acosta Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Mint ConditionNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Victor Acosta Auto Autograph 1st Rookie RC Reds PadresNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Victor Acosta 2021 1st Bowman Chrome Green Atomic Auto /99 SGC 9.5 Auto 10 NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Victor Acosta Blue Refractor Auto /150 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Victor Acosta Prospect Auto Refractor 388/499 #CPA-VA SGC 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome VICTOR ACOSTA Speckle Refractor Auto SP /299 Gem Mint PSA 9 NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Victor Acosta Prospect RC Auto Autograph #CPA-VA PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now