Deal Sniper

Sabin Ceballos

3B · Double-A · 24.0y · #1606 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

54 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

17 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Draft Sabin Ceballos 1st Bowman… at $8.50. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Sabin Ceballos scores 54 out of 100 (#1606 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: contact: plus — 18.7% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 82% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 39/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Contact: plus

    18.7% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 82% at his level.

  • Premium position

    3B — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Plate discipline: plus

    14.2% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 82% at his level.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    3B is a position the hobby pays up for; 24.0 is old for a prospect card.

  • OPS improving

    .670 last season to .732 this one.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CDA-SC — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 5 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 6 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2023 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CDA-SC

Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto

The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 5 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $6.98 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

17 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 17 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 11 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Sabin Ceballos Chrome Auto 1st Prospect

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 3d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $6.98

    modeled ~$9.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Sabin Ceballos 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CDASC Atlanta Braves 2

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 15d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $8.50

    modeled ~$9.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Sabin Ceballos 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CDASC Atlanta Braves 1

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 15d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $8.50

    modeled ~$9.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Sabin Ceballos #CDA-SC Auto 0l44

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 2d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $10.98

    modeled ~$9.49

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome SABIN CEBALLOS Atlanta Braves Rookie Prospect 1st Auto

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 11d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $11.78

    modeled ~$9.49

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Sabin Ceballos #CDA-SC Auto 03j5

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 2d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $12.72

    modeled ~$9.49

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder1 version of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $6.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $6.98 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —

4 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 55 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 55 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    59

    plus · better than 82% at his level

    18.7% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    53

    above average · better than 63% at his level

    .162 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    59

    plus · better than 82% at his level

    14.2% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    47

    average · better than 40% at his level

    12 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    52

    average · better than 56% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .732 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    53

    above average · better than 60% at his level · context, not a skill

    0.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 67th percentile of the cohort, production at the 56th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 67 and his production sits at 56, a gap of +11. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 67th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.2 / 10

  • already at Double-A
  • old for Double-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

443

AVG

.219

OBP

.351

SLG

.381

OPS

.732

better than 56%

HR

15

SB

9

BB%

14.2

K%

18.7

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season — .670 up to .732 OPS.

Still at Double-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.670▲.732

Power

.106▲.162

Walks

11.2%▲14.2%

Strikeouts

17.4%▲18.7%

Last season, 420 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market17 listed · 17 eBay-verified · 11 not shown above
Listings
17

17 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$6.98
Median ask
$14.64
Cheapest 1st auto
$6.98
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
—

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 11 cards

  • $16.562023 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto Sabin Ceballos! SP!LOTTERY
  • $17.312023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Sabin Ceballos #CDA-SC Auto 1u5yLOTTERY
  • $29.952023 Bowman Chrome Rookie Autograph Sabin Ceballos RC Auto SGC 9.5NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $29.992023 Bowman Draft Chrome Sabin Ceballos Auto PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $44.342023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Sabin Ceballos #CDA-SC PSA 9 MINT Auto 0o3xNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Auto 1st Bowman Sabin Ceballos CDA-SCNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Draft Sabin Ceballos Chrome 1st Refractor Prospect Auto /499 BravesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Sabin Ceballos 1st Prospect Refractor Auto #/499 BravesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Draft Sabin Ceballos Chrome 1st Refractor Prospect Auto /499 BravesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —SABIN CEBALLOS 2023 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT 1ST ORANGE WAVE AUTO /25 SGC 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $17.982023 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Sabin Ceballos Auto Atlanta Braves Prospect SSPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now