Deal Sniper

Alex Binelas

1B · Double-A · 26.0y · #1909 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

50 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

18 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Alex Binelas scores 50 out of 100 (#1909 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: power: plus — .242 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 90% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: age for the level — -2.0y vs his level at Double-A puts him younger than only 24% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.

The signal

  • Old for the level

    -2.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than only 24% of the players there.

  • Speed: below average

    6 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 39/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Power: plus

    .242 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 90% at his level.

  • Bat-first profile

    1B — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.

  • Plate discipline: plus

    15.1% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 85% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Age for the level

    -2.0y vs his level at Double-A puts him younger than only 24% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.

  • Corner-only profile

    1B carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /499 at $10.48 costs 1.05× base, and print run alone suggests 1.15×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

18 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 18 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 12 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2021 Bowman Draft Brewers ALEX BINELAS 1ST BOWMAN CHROME AUTO Red Sox Prospect

    Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1489d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $9.99

    modeled ~$12.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Draft Alex Binelas 1st Bowman Chrome On-Card Auto Refractor #/499

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 104d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $10.48

    modeled ~$19.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Alex Binelas #CDA-AB Auto 12in

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 0d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $11.85

    modeled ~$12.62

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • ALEX BINELAS 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Refractor Auto Prospect RC /499

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 1142d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $14.55

    modeled ~$19.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • ALEX BINELAS 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Prospect RC - PACK FRESH!

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 1302d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $14.75

    modeled ~$12.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 478/499 Alex Binelas #CDA-AB Auto gb4

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 6d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $16.17

    modeled ~$19.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $11.85, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $11.85 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • RedTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $9.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $9.99 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -16%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $10.48, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $10.48 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +5%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $20.19, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $20.19 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +93%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

8 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 53 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 53 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    46

    below average · better than 34% at his level

    28.7% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    63

    plus · better than 90% at his level

    .242 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    60

    plus · better than 85% at his level

    15.1% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    44

    below average · better than 29% at his level

    6 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    62

    plus · better than 89% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .903 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    43

    below average · better than 24% at his level · context, not a skill

    -2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 60th percentile of the cohort, production at the 89th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 90% of the players he is measured against.

The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.

How this is read: his skills average 60 and his production sits at 89, a gap of -29. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 10th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.8 / 10

  • already at Double-A
  • old for Double-A
  • hitting well — 0.903 OPS in 464 PA (not ranked against his level)

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

464

AVG

.273

OBP

.388

SLG

.515

OPS

.903

better than 89%

HR

25

SB

5

BB%

15.1

K%

28.7

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season — .797 up to .903 OPS.

Still at Double-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.797▲.903

Power

.160▲.242

Walks

14.5%→15.1%

Strikeouts

27.1%▲28.7%

Last season, 269 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market18 listed · 18 eBay-verified · 12 not shown above
Listings
18

18 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$9.99
Median ask
$19.30
Cheapest 1st auto
$9.99
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$10.48

Latest eBay verification: 7 hours ago.

The other 12 cards

  • $16.602021 Alex Binelas Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto RC #CDA-AB (J737) $7 MAX SHIPLOTTERY
  • $16.982021 Bowman Draft Chrome ALEX BINELAS 1st Rookie AUTO #CDA-AB Red Sox RC SPLOTTERY
  • $18.412021 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 193/499 Alex Binelas #CDA-AB Auto 0m4rLOTTERY
  • $20.192021 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Purple Refractor 54/250 Alex Binelas Auto 1d59LOTTERY
  • $29.392021 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Purple Refractor Alex Binelas SGC 9.5 Auto 10h2NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $29.99Alex Binelas 2021 Bowman Draft 1st Bowman Chrome Auto PSA 10 CDA-AB Brewers MintNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $30.492021 BOWMAN DRAFT ALEX BINELAS *CHROME AUTO PSA 9 MINT* BREWERSNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $34.982021 Bowman Draft Alex Binelas 1st Bowman Chrome Auto PSA 10 CDA-AB Brewers MintNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $39.742021 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor /499 Alex Binelas PSA 9 MINT Auto 10h2NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $40.892021 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Blue Wave Refractor Alex Binelas PSA 9 Auto 1t5NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $46.752021 Bowman Chrome Draft Alex Binelas 1st Milwaukee Brewers Auto #CDA-AB BGS 9.5NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $68.492021 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor Alex Binelas PSA 10 GEM MT Auto 10h2NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now