Douglas Hodo III
CF · Chesapeake Baysox · Double-A · 25.0y · #2934 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
45 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
24 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Douglas Hodo III scores 45 out of 100 (#2934 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: speed: plus — 41 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 84% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Plate discipline: below average
7.3% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 39/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Speed: plus
41 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 84% at his level.
Premium position
CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Power: plus
.210 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 82% at his level.
What the hobby pays up for
CF is a position the hobby pays up for; 25.0 is old for a prospect card.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CDA-DH — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CDA-DH
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $1.99 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
24 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 24 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 18 are under "The whole live market".
2022 Bowman Draft Chrome #CDA-DH Douglas Hodo III 1st Auto Baltimore Orioles
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 734d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$6.39
modeled ~$9.49
LOTTERY
2022 Bowman Chrome Douglas Hodo III 1st Bowman Auto
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 962d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
$7.98
modeled ~$9.49
LOTTERY
2022 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Refractor AUTO /499 Douglas Hodo #CDA-DH Orioles
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 242d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.03
modeled ~$12.50
LOTTERY
2022 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT DOUGLAS HODO III 1ST BOWMAN AUTO #CPA-DH ORIOLES B2
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1291d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.50
modeled ~$9.26
LOTTERY
DOUGLAS HODO III 2022 BOWMAN DRAFT CHROME AUTO AUTOGRAPH RC 1st First
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 1155d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.95
modeled ~$9.26
LOTTERY
2022 Bowman Chrome Douglas Hodo III 1st First Autograph RC Auto #CDA-DH Rookie
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1048d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$11.90
modeled ~$9.26
LOTTERY
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $1.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $1.99 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Aqua Lava RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $21.92, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $21.92 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +1002%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $9.03, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $9.03 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -59%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Aqua Lava Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $22.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $22.49 live
- Scarcity
- 199 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +149%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $92.07, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $92.07 live
- Scarcity
- 75 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +309%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
6 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 51 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
43
below average · better than 24% at his level
30.7% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
59
plus · better than 82% at his level
.210 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
43
below average · better than 23% at his level
7.3% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
60
plus · better than 84% at his level
41 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
49
average · better than 47% at his level · the result, not a skill
.703 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
48
average · better than 42% at his level · context, not a skill
-1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 53th percentile of the cohort, production at the 47th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 53 and his production sits at 47, a gap of +6. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 57th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.7 / 10
- already at Double-A
- old for Double-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
192
AVG
.216
OBP
.277
SLG
.426
OPS
.703
better than 47%
HR
8
SB
13
BB%
7.3
K%
30.7
Is this player getting better?
Hitting better than last season — .650 up to .703 OPS.
Still at Double-A, the same level as last season.
OPS
.650▲.703
Power
.133▲.210
Walks
12.6%▼7.3%
Strikeouts
29.2%▲30.7%
Last season, 435 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market24 listed · 24 eBay-verified · 18 not shown above
- Listings
- 24
- Lowest live
- $1.99
- Median ask
- $15.02
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $6.39
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $9.03
24 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 18 cards
- $12.44Douglas Hodo III 2022 Bowman Chrome Draft Refractor 1st RC Auto /499 Orioles.LOTTERY
- $13.88DOUGLAS HODO III 2022 Bowman Draft #CDA-DH 1st Chrome AutoLOTTERY
- $17.292022 Bowman Chrome Draft Douglas Hodo III 1st Prospect Auto #CDA-DH OriolesLOTTERY
- $19.952022 Bowman Chrome Draft Douglas Hodo III Auto 1st Baltimore Orioles SGC 10/9.5LOTTERY
- $21.49DOUGLAS HODO III 2022 BOWMAN DRAFT CHROME 1ST PROSPECT ON CARD AUTOLOTTERY
- $22.492022 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Aqua Lava Refractor /199 Douglas Hodo III Auto y5mLOTTERY
- $30.98Douglas Hodo III 2022 Bowman Chrome Draft Sparkle Refractor Auto /71 BGS 9.5 RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $34.952022 Bowman Chrome Draft Douglas Hodo III Auto 1st Baltimore Orioles SGC 10-10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $38.982022 Bowman Draft Chrome Purple Refractor Douglas Hodo III Auto PSA 10 #233/250NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $92.072022 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Black Refractor 35/75 Douglas Hodo III Auto 7xrNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Douglas Hodo III 2022 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto RC #CDADH - Baltimore OriolesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Douglas Hodo III 2022 Bowman Chrome Draft Refractor 1st RC Auto /499 Orioles.NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2022 Bowman Draft - Chrome Draft Pick Auto Douglas Hodo #CDA-DH Refractor PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $40.892022 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Aqua Lava Refractor Douglas Hodo PSA 9 Auto br7NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $15.022022 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor /499 Douglas Hodo III #CDA-DH Auto 10h2LOTTERY
- $1.992022 Bowman Draft - Chrome Draft Pick Auto Douglas Hodo #CDA-DH (AU, RC)LOTTERY
- $11.432022 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Douglas Hodo III #CDA-DH Auto 0u2jLOTTERY
- $21.922022 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Aqua Lava Refractor Douglas Hodo III Auto 10h2LOTTERY
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run