Dax Kilby
SS · Low-A · 19.0y · #456 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Priced fairly
- What to do
- Wait for a better price
66 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
His best /499 asks $270, inside the $263–270 that card has sold in.
Closest of his is 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Dax Kilby Auto…. Priced above value.
Our take
Solid prospect, priced about right.
Dax Kilby scores 66 out of 100 (#456 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
His core Bowman card has been selling at $72–95 off 2 confirmed sales.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Young for the level
+2.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Plate discipline: plus-plus
22.7% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 96% at his level.
Premium position
SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Speed: plus
38 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 78% at his level.
What the hobby pays up for
SS is a position the hobby pays up for; only 19.0 — years of runway.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-DK — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
$72–94.60midpoint $86.00
Evidence limited· 2 salesmost recent 2026-08-24 · 2 listed now
- 7 days
- not enough sales
- 30 days
- not enough sales
- 90 days
- not enough sales
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-DK
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Dax Kilby #CPA-DK Auto 8g8 at $110, 39% over the $78.89–86 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
That card at or under $78.89 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- Priced above value
- Player not there yet
- On his best-priced card: not a core card.
What is for sale right now
35 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 35 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 29 are under "The whole live market".
Dax Kilby 2025 Bowman Chrome Draft Sapphire #CPA-DK 1st RC Auto 64/199 PSA 10
/199 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 11d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $850
PASS
Dax Kilby Auto 2025 Bowman Mega Draft #BMA-DK Chrome Prospect Mojo Refractor
Mojo Refractor · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 2d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
—
sold $78.89–86
PASS · 11% under
2025 PSA 10 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Dax Kilby Aqua Lava Refractor Auto 115/199
/199 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 3d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $389
PASS
2025 Bowman Chrome Dax Kilby 1st Purple Refractor Auto /250 Yankees #CPA-DK
/250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
sold $225
PASS
Dax Kilby 1st Bowman Auto Gold Shimmer /50 Yankees 2025 Chrome Draft CPA-DK
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 11d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 89h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $104–318
PASS
Dax Kilby 1st Bowman Chrome Auto /250 Purple Refractor
/250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 3d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
sold $225
PASS
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Dax Kilby, just what the money can do today.
- Walker Jenkinsbase$67.98Watch
- Luke AdamsHTA Choice Refractor · /150$74.96Watch
- Rainiel Rodriguezbase$69.99Watch44% under fair value
Compared within $54.94–$115.37, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder7 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $109.88, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $109.88 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $269.85, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $269.85 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +146%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Sapphire /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $380.25, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $380.25 live
- Scarcity
- 199 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +41%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Sapphire Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $349.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $349.99 live
- Scarcity
- 199 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -8%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Wave /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $455.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $455.00 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +30%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - HTA Choice Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $305.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $305.98 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -33%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Yellow Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $695.54, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $695.54 live
- Scarcity
- 75 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +127%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
7 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 60 on the 20–80 scale, against 530 hitters at Low-A
What he is good at
skills overall 60 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 530 hitters at Low-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
57
above average · better than 76% at his level
20.0% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
55
above average · better than 69% at his level
.153 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
68
plus-plus · better than 96% at his level
22.7% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
58
plus · better than 78% at his level
38 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
62
plus · better than 88% at his level · the result, not a skill
.880 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
69
plus-plus · better than 97% at his level · context, not a skill
+2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 80th percentile of the cohort, production at the 88th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 80 and his production sits at 88, a gap of -8. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 529 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 36th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.8 / 10
- hitting well — 0.880 OPS in 110 PA (not ranked against his level)
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Low-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 530 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
110
AVG
.282
OBP
.445
SLG
.435
OPS
.880
better than 88%
HR
2
SB
7
BB%
22.7
K%
20.0
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market35 listed · 35 eBay-verified · 29 not shown above
- Listings
- 35
- Lowest seen
- $109.88
- Median ask
- $365.12
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $305.98
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $305.98
35 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 7 hours ago.
The other 29 cards
- —2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Dax Kilby Auto Refractor /499 Card YankeesPASS
- $269.852025 Bowman Chrome Dax Kilby #CPA-DK Refractor Auto /499PASS
- $305.982025 Bowman Draft Dax Kilby Chrome Auto HTA Choice Refractor 1st #/150 YankeesPASS
- $455.002025 Bowman Chrome Dax Kilby Blue Wave #/150 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-DKPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Dax Kilby Auto Blue Wave Refractor 102/150 Card YankeesPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Blue Wave /150 Dax Kilby New York YankeesPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Dax Kilby Auto Blue Wave Refractor 102/150 Card YankeesPASS
- —Dax Kilby 2025 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Aqua Lava Refractor Auto /199 YankeesPASS
- —2025 Bowman #CPA-DK Dax Kilby Chrome 1st Prospect Auto Purple Refractor /250PASS
- $349.992025 Bowman Chrome 1st Dax Kilby Auto Sapphire Refractor /199 Card YankeesPASS
- $380.25Dax Kilby 2025 Bowman Draft Sapphire AUTO 1st Bowman #151/199 #CPA-DK YankeesPASS
- —Dax Kilby 2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Auto 1st RC #CPA-DK PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Dax Kilby Prospect Auto Refractor /499 PSA 9 Mint (RC)NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Topps 2025 Bowman 1st Dax Kilby Auto /250 BGS 9.5NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 PSA 9 Bowman Chrome 1st Dax Kilby TRUE Blue Refractor Auto 33/150 cardNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $5005.162025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Auto Dax Kilby Orange Wave /25 Yankees PSA 10 PASS
- $695.542025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Yellow Refractor 52/75 Dax Kilby Auto 4k8PASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Dax Kilby Yankees Chrome Prospect Auto Green 94 /99PASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Dax Kilby 1st Auto - Gold 37/50 - #CPA-DK YANKEES ProspectPASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft 1st Dax Kilby Refractor Auto /499PASS
- $109.882025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Dax Kilby #CPA-DK Auto 8g8PASS
- —Dax Kilby Topps 2025 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Auto #CPA-DK YankeesPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Dax Kilby #CPA-DK 1st Bowman AutoPASS
- —Dax Kilby Topps 2025 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Auto #CPA-DK YankeesPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Dax Kilby Chrome Prospects YankeesPASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Autographs Dax Kilby #CPA-DK Auto YankeesPASS
- —Dax Kilby Topps 2025 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Auto #CPA-DK YankeesPASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Dax Kilby #CPA-DK 1st Bowman Auto 172/499 New York Yankees SPPASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Dax Kilby Chrome Auto 1st #CPA-DK YankeesPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run