Deal Sniper

Teilon Serrano

CF · Rookie · 18.0y · #706 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

61 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

21 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait for a better price

Closest of his is 2025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Teilon Serrano…. Priced above value.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Teilon Serrano scores 61 out of 100 (#706 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Rookie — younger than 80% of the players there.

His core Bowman card has been selling at $1–4 off 2 confirmed sales.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: swing-and-miss — contact grades 41 on the 20–80 scale (30.4% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +1.0y vs his level at Rookie — younger than 80% of the players there.

  • Contact: well below

    30.4% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Plate discipline: plus-plus

    27.3% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 96% at his level.

  • Premium position

    CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Power: plus

    .187 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 85% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 41 on the 20–80 scale (30.4% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Thin comp evidence

    1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-TS — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 12 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

$1.33–3.85midpoint $1.48

Evidence limited· 2 salesmost recent 2026-08-24 · 13 listed now

7 days
not enough sales
30 days
not enough sales
90 days
not enough sales

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-TS

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 12 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is Teilon Serrano 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-TS Twins (BT) at $18.49, 1149% over the $1.48–3.50 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

That card at or under $1.48 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Priced above value
  • Player not there yet
  • On his best-priced card: waiting on sales.

What is for sale right now

21 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 21 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 15 are under "The whole live market".

  • TEILON SERRANO 2025 BOWMAN CHROME #CPA-TS GREEN LAVA REFRACTOR /99 1ST AUTO

    /99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 2d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $1.44–9.70

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Teilon Serrano 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto MOJO HTA Choice /150 Twins

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $20.99

    modeled $1.20–8.09

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Chrome Teilon Serrano HTA Choice Refractor Auto #/150 #CPA-TS 1st RC

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 6d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 89h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $1.20–8.09

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Chrome Teilon Serrano HTA Choice Refractor Auto #/150 #CPA-TS 1st RC

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 3d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $1.20–8.09

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Topps 2025 1st Bowman Chrome Teilon Serrano RC Auto Purple Refractor /250 Twins

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 4d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $1.04–7.01

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Chrome Prospects Teilon Serrano CPA-TS Purple 1st Auto /250

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 9d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $1.04–7.01

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $8.78, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $8.78 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $22.48, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $22.48 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +156%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue RayWave /150THIN EVIDENCE

    1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    nothing listed
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • HTA Choice /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $20.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $20.99 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

1 listing sits in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 56 on the 20–80 scale, against 1087 hitters at Rookie

What he is good at

skills overall 56 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 1087 hitters at Rookie — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    41

    well below · better than 18% at his level

    30.4% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    60

    plus · better than 85% at his level

    .187 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    68

    plus-plus · better than 96% at his level

    27.3% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    56

    above average · better than 71% at his level

    43 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    57

    above average · better than 75% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .844 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    58

    plus · better than 80% at his level · context, not a skill

    +1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 68th percentile of the cohort, production at the 75th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 68 and his production sits at 75, a gap of -7. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 1,087 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 39th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.2 / 10

  • hitting well — 0.844 OPS in 194 PA (not ranked against his level)

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 82% of what it wants to know — missing readiness.

How he is playingThe Rookie line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 1087 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

194

AVG

.211

OBP

.446

SLG

.398

OPS

.844

better than 75%

HR

3

SB

14

BB%

27.3

K%

30.4

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season — .812 up to .844 OPS.

Still at Rookie, the same level as last season.

OPS

.812▲.844

Power

.168▲.187

Walks

14.8%▲27.3%

Strikeouts

25.4%▲30.4%

Last season, 189 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold for1 logged sale

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

Only 1 sale logged so far. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
  • 2026-08-26 — $20.00 · /150 · tracked disappearance — not a confirmed sale proof
The whole live market21 listed · 21 eBay-verified · 15 not shown above
Listings
21

21 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$8.78
Median ask
$15.49
Cheapest 1st auto
$8.78
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$20.99

Latest eBay verification: 2 days ago.

The other 15 cards

  • $22.482025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 Teilon Serrano Auto 1kn1LOTTERY
  • $504.25TEILON SERRANO PSA 10 2025 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTO BLACK WHITE SHIMMER SSP TWINSNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $8.782025 1st Bowman Chrome #CPA-TS Teilon Serrano Prospect AutoPASS
  • $10.97💥2025 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Teilon Serrano #CPA-TSPASS
  • $11.192025 Bowman Chrome 1st TEILON SERRANO AUTO #CPA-TS Minnesota TwinsPASS
  • $13.992025 BOWMAN CHROME TEILON SERRANO #CPA-TS 1ST PROSPECT AUTO AUTOGRAPH TWINSPASS
  • $14.98🔥2025 Bowman Chrome - Teilon Serrano 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-TS TwinsPASS
  • $15.49Topps Bowman Chrome 2026 Teilon Serrano 1st Bowman Auto Twins #CPA-TSPASS
  • $16.48Teilon Serrano 2025 Bowman Chrome Prospect 1st Auto #CPA-TS Minnesota TwinsPASS
  • $18.49Teilon Serrano 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-TS Twins (BT)PASS
  • —Topps 2025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs Teilon Serrano 1st RC Auto CPA-TSPASS
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Teilon Serrano 1st Autographs CPA-TS 1st Bowman AutoPASS
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Teilon Serrano #CPA-TS 1st Bowman Auto PASS
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Teilon Serrano 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CPA-TSPASS
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Prospects Teilon Serrano 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-TSPASS

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now