Jay Allen II
CF · Triple-A · 23.0y · #2253 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
47 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
9 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2021 Bowman Draft Jay Allen Chrome Auto…. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Jay Allen II scores 47 out of 100 (#2253 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 95% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 33 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Young for the level
+3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 95% of the players there.
Contact: well below
33.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
OPS slipping
.651 last season to .438 this one.
Power slipping
.116 last season to .065 this one.
Speed: above average
18 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 65% at his level.
Moved up and held it
Double-A to Triple-A.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
33 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Swing-and-miss
Contact grades 38 on the 20–80 scale (33.3% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /499 at $19.61 costs 0.99× base, and print run alone suggests 1.15×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
9 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 9 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 3 are under "The whole live market".
2022 BOWMAN CHROME JAY ALLEN LAVA REFRACTOR RC /399 NON AUTO REDS 1ST BCP-114
/399 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1484d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.99
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2022 BOWMAN CHROME JAY ALLEN LAVA REFRACTOR RC /399 NON AUTO REDS 1ST BCP-114🔥
/399 · raw · condition not stated · listed 1121d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$11.24
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Refractor /499 Jay Allen #CDA-JA Auto 8d4
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 6d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$19.61
modeled ~$34.33
LOTTERY
2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Jay Allen #CDA-JA Auto v9t
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 4d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$19.85
modeled ~$17.50
LOTTERY
2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Jay Allen #CDA-JA PSA 9 MINT Auto 6zy
base · PSA 9 · listed 24d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$21.34
modeled ~$80.00
LOTTERY
2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Jay Allen #CDA-JA SGC 10 GEM Auto 01lu
base · SGC 10 · listed 6d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$24.79
modeled ~$60.00
LOTTERY
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder1 version of his cards in psa 9 autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing PSA 9 autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $21.34, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $21.34 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
6 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 43 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 43 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
38
well below · better than 12% at his level
33.3% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
39
well below · better than 14% at his level
.065 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
40
well below · better than 16% at his level
6.1% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
54
above average · better than 65% at his level
18 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
36
well below · better than 8% at his level · the result, not a skill
.438 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
66
plus-plus · better than 95% at his level · context, not a skill
+3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 27th percentile of the cohort, production at the 8th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 27 and his production sits at 8, a gap of +19. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 78th percentile.
Will he get there?
Strong chance 7.2 / 10
- already at Triple-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
33
AVG
.161
OBP
.212
SLG
.226
OPS
.438
better than 8%
HR
0
SB
1
BB%
6.1
K%
33.3
Is this player getting better?
Down from .651 to .438 OPS, but he moved up to Triple-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.
Moved up from Double-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.651▼.438
Power
.116▼.065
Walks
8.9%▼6.1%
Strikeouts
24.5%▲33.3%
Last season, 482 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market9 listed · 9 eBay-verified · 3 not shown above
- Listings
- 9
- Lowest seen
- $9.99
- Median ask
- $19.85
- Cheapest 1st auto
- —
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- —
9 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 3 cards
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run