Deal Sniper

Starlin Aguilar

2B · Low-A · 22.0y · #2123 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

48 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

31 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2021 Bowman Chrome Starlin Aguilar 1st… at $6.49. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Starlin Aguilar scores 48 out of 100 (#2123 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: power: plus — .180 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 78% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Plate discipline: below average

    7.9% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Power: plus

    .180 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 78% at his level.

  • Premium position

    2B — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • OPS improving

    .473 last season to .776 this one.

  • Power improving

    .074 last season to .180 this one.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-SA — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 16 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 16 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-SA

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 16 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /250 at $4.98 costs 1.67× base, and print run alone suggests 1.30×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

31 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 31 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 25 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Starlin Aguilar 1st Bowman Auto CPA-SA Mariners

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 650d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $2.98

    modeled ~$9.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Starlin Aguilar 1st Bowman Auto CPA-SA Mariners

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 39d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $3.98

    modeled ~$9.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Starlin Aguilar Auto 1st Prospect Mariners Base #CPA-SA

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 917d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $4.99

    modeled ~$9.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs #CPA-SA Starlin Aguilar 1st Rookie Auto

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 561d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $5.49

    modeled ~$9.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Starlin Aguilar 1st Bowman Autograph Auto /499 SEA

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 14d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.49

    modeled ~$12.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 1st Bowman Chrome ~ Starlin Aguilar ~ Sparkle Refractor /299 ~ Auto

    /299 · raw · condition not stated · listed 15d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $7.77

    no sold price

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder6 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $2.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $2.98 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $6.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $6.49 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +118%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $12.72, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $12.72 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +96%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Sparkle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $7.77, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $7.77 live
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -39%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $4.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $4.98 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -36%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $11.48, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $11.48 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +131%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

9 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 48 on the 20–80 scale, against 530 hitters at Low-A

What he is good at

skills overall 48 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 530 hitters at Low-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    49

    average · better than 47% at his level

    26.4% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    58

    plus · better than 78% at his level

    .180 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    42

    below average · better than 22% at his level

    7.9% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    43

    below average · better than 23% at his level

    0 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    56

    above average · better than 72% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .776 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    49

    average · better than 45% at his level · context, not a skill

    -1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 43th percentile of the cohort, production at the 72th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 90% of the players he is measured against.

The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.

How this is read: his skills average 43 and his production sits at 72, a gap of -29. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 529 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 10th percentile.

Will he get there?

Long shot 4.2 / 10

  • old for Low-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Low-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 530 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

254

AVG

.269

OBP

.327

SLG

.449

OPS

.776

better than 72%

HR

9

SB

0

BB%

7.9

K%

26.4

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season — .473 up to .776 OPS.

Still at Low-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.473▲.776

Power

.074▲.180

Walks

6.1%▲7.9%

Strikeouts

37.2%▼26.4%

Last season, 148 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market31 listed · 31 eBay-verified · 25 not shown above
Listings
31

31 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$2.98
Median ask
$11.98
Cheapest 1st auto
$2.98
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$6.49

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 25 cards

  • $9.002021 1st Bowman Chrome Starlin Aguilar Auto Seattle MarinersLOTTERY
  • $11.482021 Bowman Chrome Starlin Aguilar Auto 1st Blue #'d /150 - Mariners RCLOTTERY
  • $11.982021 1st Bowman Chrome Starlin Aguilar RC SP Auto Mariners 🔥🔥🔥LOTTERY
  • $13.99STARLIN AGUILAR 2021 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-SALOTTERY
  • $14.99STARLIN AGUILAR AUTO 1st 2021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Autograph Rookie Card RCLOTTERY
  • $18.492021 Bowman Chrome #CPA-SA Starlin Aguilar 1st Bowman Rookie RC Auto MarinersLOTTERY
  • $19.682021 Bowman Chrome STARLIN AGUILAR Refractor 1st Auto SP /499 Gem Mint PSA 10LOTTERY
  • $25.932021 Bowman Chrome Starlin Aguilar 1st Prospect Auto Autograph #CPA-SA MarinersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $39.742021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor Starlin Aguilar PSA 10 GEM MT Auto 0q4sNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $40.642021 Bowman Chrome STARLIN AGUILAR Mariners Refractor Auto SP #/299 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Starlin Aguilar #CPA-SA 1st Bowman Auto Seattle MarinersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome #CPA-SA Starlin Aguilar 1st RC Auto Refractor /499 MarinersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Starlin Aguilar 1st Bowman prospect auto #CPA-SA MarinersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Starlin Aguilar 2021 Topps Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Seattle Mariners CPA-SANEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Starlin Aguilar 1st Bowman Auto SGC 10 Seattle MarinersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Starlin Aguilar Purple Refactor /250 PSA Mint 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2021 Bowman Chrome Starlin Aguilar Prospect Auto RC CPA-SA PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $24.792021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Starlin Aguilar #CPA-SA SGC 10 GEM Auto 0j15LOTTERY
  • $4.502021 Bowman Chrome 1st STARLIN AGUILAR Seattle Mariners Prospect On Card AutoLOTTERY
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Starlin Aguilar Auto 1st #CPA-SA MarinersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $4.982021 Bowman Chrome Starlin Aguilar Prospect Auto Purple Refractor Mariners #/250LOTTERY
  • —Starlin Aguilar 2021 Bowman Chrome AUTO GREEN REFRACTOR /99 PSA AUTHENTIC #249NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $42.592021 Bowman Chrome - Prospect Auto - Starlin Aguilar #CPASA RC/Auto - PSA 9 NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $12.722021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 128/499 Starlin Aguilar #CPA-SA Auto 1lj1LOTTERY
  • —Topps 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto RC Starlin Aguilar CPA-SA MarinersPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now