Conrad Cason
Rookie · 20.0y · #1363 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
56 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
9 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2025 BOWMAN CHROME CONRAD CASON AUTO /99… at $67.98. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Solid prospect, untested market.
Conrad Cason scores 56 out of 100 (#1363 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: power: elite — .466 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 100% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 16 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Plate discipline: bottom of the scale
6.2% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Power: elite
.466 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 100% at his level.
Contact: above average
18.8% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 62% at his level.
What the hobby pays up for
Big power for his level (100th percentile).
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
16 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
9 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 9 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 3 are under "The whole live market".
2025 BOWMAN CHROME CONRAD CASON AUTO /99 GREEN LAVA REFRACTOR 1ST PSA 9 #CPA-CCN
/99 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 12d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$67.98
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2025 Bowman Red Sox Conrad Cason 1st Bowman Chrome Black Refractor Auto 10/10
/10 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 3d
Player not there yet · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 81h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $18
PASS
2025 Bowman Conrad Cason 1st Auto True Blue /150 Red Sox PSA 10
/150 · PSA 10 · listed 62d
Not a core card · 2 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether the signature is factory-certified or added later
$315.00
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Conrad Cason 2025 Bowman Chrome Mini-Diamond Refractor 1st RC Auto /100 Red Sox
/100 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 452d
Player not there yet · 2 other things in the way
$305.99
modeled $9
PASS
2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Conrad Cason True Blue Refractor Auto #/150 Red Sox
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 99d
Player not there yet · 2 other things in the way
$316.98
modeled $9
PASS
2025 Bowman Conrad Cason Chrome Auto Blue Refractor 1st Prospect #/150 Red Sox
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 9d
Player not there yet · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $9
PASS
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Conrad Cason, just what the money can do today.
- Walker Jenkinsbase$67.98Watch
- Rainiel Rodriguezbase$69.99Watch44% under fair value
- Luke AdamsRefractor · /499$49.99Watch
Compared within $33.99–$71.38, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder2 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- Red Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $305.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $305.99 live
- Scarcity
- 100 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- True Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $316.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $316.98 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +4%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
2 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 1087 hitters at Rookie
What he is good at
skills overall 51 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 1087 hitters at Rookie — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
53
above average · better than 62% at his level
18.8% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
80
elite · better than 100% at his level
.466 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
31
bottom of the scale · better than 3% at his level
6.2% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
39
well below · better than 14% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
69
plus-plus · better than 97% at his level · the result, not a skill
1.046 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
46
below average · better than 34% at his level · context, not a skill
-1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 45th percentile of the cohort, production at the 97th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 99% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 45 and his production sits at 97, a gap of -52. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 1,087 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 1th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 3.6 / 10
- nothing stands out either way
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 68% of what it wants to know — missing readiness, production.
How he is playingThe Rookie line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 1087 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
16
AVG
.267
OBP
.313
SLG
.733
OPS
1.046
better than 97%
HR
2
SB
0
BB%
6.2
K%
18.8
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market9 listed · 9 eBay-verified · 3 not shown above
- Listings
- 9
- Lowest seen
- $67.98
- Median ask
- $310.50
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $67.98
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $67.98
9 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 3 cards
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run