Deal Sniper

Alek Thomas

CF · Oklahoma City Comets · Triple-A · 26.0y · #1558 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

54 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

15 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Alek Thomas scores 54 out of 100 (#1558 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: contact: plus — 14.5% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 87% at his level.

His core Bowman card has been selling at $7–22 off 2 confirmed sales.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Plate discipline: below average

    9.2% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Contact: plus

    14.5% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 87% at his level.

  • Premium position

    CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Power: above average

    .197 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 72% at his level.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    CF is a position the hobby pays up for; 26.0 is old for a prospect card.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman draft chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2018 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CDA-AT — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

$7.19–21.99midpoint $7.99

Evidence limited· 2 salesmost recent 2026-08-22 · 2 listed now

7 days
not enough sales
30 days
not enough sales
90 days
not enough sales

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2018 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CDA-AT

Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto

The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Alek Thomas #CDA-AT Auto qf8 at $57.28, 617% over the $7.99–19.99 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

That card at or under $7.99 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: not a core card.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

15 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 15 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 9 are under "The whole live market".

  • Alek Thomas 1st Bowman Auto 2018 Bowman Draft - Chrome Draft Picks #CDAAT PSA 10

    base · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 6d

    Past the window · 3 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    sold $50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Alek Thomas 1st Bowman Auto 2018 Bowman Draft - Chrome Draft Picks #CDAAT PSA 10

    base · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 6d

    Past the window · 3 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    sold $50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2018 1st Bowman Chrome Alek Thomas Sparkle Refractor Auto /71 LOP

    /71 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1235d

    Past the window · 3 other things in the way

    —

    modeled $8.63–61.57

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2018 ALEK THOMAS 1st BOWMAN CHROME True Green REF AUTO #/99 RC

    /99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1044d

    Past the window · 3 other things in the way

    —

    modeled $7.77–55.41

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2018 Bowman Chrome Draft Refractor Alek Thomas Auto BGS Authenticated

    Refractor · raw · condition not stated · listed 979d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $23.50

    no sold price

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Alek Thomas 2018 Bowman Chrome Draft Orange Refractor Auto /25 BGS 9.5 TRUE GEM+

    /25 · BGS 9.5 · takes offers · listed 6d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $505.99

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Alek Thomas, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $8.07–$16.95, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $16.14, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $16.14 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $34.90, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $34.90 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +116%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $50.67, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $50.67 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +45%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

6 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 53 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 53 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    61

    plus · better than 87% at his level

    14.5% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    56

    above average · better than 72% at his level

    .197 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    46

    below average · better than 35% at his level

    9.2% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    49

    average · better than 45% at his level

    10 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    57

    above average · better than 75% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .855 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    52

    average · better than 59% at his level · context, not a skill

    0.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 60th percentile of the cohort, production at the 75th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 60 and his production sits at 75, a gap of -15. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 25th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.2 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A
  • hitting well — 0.855 OPS in 249 PA (not ranked against his level)

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

249

AVG

.296

OBP

.362

SLG

.493

OPS

.855

better than 75%

HR

7

SB

4

BB%

9.2

K%

14.5

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market15 listed · 15 eBay-verified · 9 not shown above
Listings
15

15 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$16.14
Median ask
$33.01
Cheapest 1st auto
$16.14
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$34.90

Latest eBay verification: 6 hours ago.

The other 9 cards

  • —2018 Bowman Chrome Draft Alek Thomas Orange Refractor Auto /25 BGS 9.5 #CDA-AT NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $34.902018 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT ALEK THOMAS REFRACTPOR /499 AUTO ROOKIE RC 1stPASS
  • $50.672018 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 475/499 Alek Thomas #CDA-AT Auto v9tPASS
  • —2018 Bowman Chome 1st Alek Thomas Purple Refractor Auto /250 PSA 9 RC 🔥🔥PASS
  • $16.142018 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT ALEK THOMAS AUTO ROOKIE RC 1st DIAMONDBACKS AlexPASS
  • $23.072018 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Alek Thomas #CDA-AT Auto 3b3PASS
  • $31.122018 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Alek Thomas #CDA-AT Auto READ v9tPASS
  • $57.282018 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Alek Thomas #CDA-AT Auto qf8PASS
  • —ALEK THOMAS 2018 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT #CDA-AT 1ST PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH AUTOPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now