Deal Sniper

Nick Schnell

RF · El Paso Chihuahuas · Triple-A · 26.0y · #2072 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

49 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

25 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Nick Schnell scores 49 out of 100 (#2072 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: power: plus — .240 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 84% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: swing-and-miss — contact grades 40 on the 20–80 scale (31.1% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

The signal

  • Contact: well below

    31.1% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Power: plus

    .240 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 84% at his level.

  • Bat-first profile

    RF — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    26.0 is old for a prospect card.

  • Call-up is close

    Readiness 75/100 — the promotion is the single biggest price event in a prospect card.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 40 on the 20–80 scale (31.1% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Corner-only profile

    RF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2018 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CDA-NS — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2018 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CDA-NS

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $5.49 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

25 cards of his are listed, 2 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 23 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 17 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2018 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Nick Schnell Auto

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 155d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $5.49

    modeled ~$8.98

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2018 Bowman Chrome Draft Nick Schnell 1st Auto #CDA-NS

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 1310d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $7.00

    modeled ~$8.98

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Nick Schnell 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CDA-NS

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 187d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — the year

    $8.98

    modeled ~$8.89

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Nick Schnell #CDA-NS Auto jc3

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $11.22

    modeled ~$8.89

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Nick Schnell 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Refractor Auto #209/499 #CDA-NS

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $11.34

    modeled ~$12.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Nick Schnell 2018 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto Autograph (6)

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 176d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $11.48

    modeled ~$8.89

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $5.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $5.49 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $11.34, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $11.34 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +107%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $12.13, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $12.13 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +7%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

4 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 50 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 50 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    40

    well below · better than 15% at his level

    31.1% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    60

    plus · better than 84% at his level

    .240 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    49

    average · better than 45% at his level

    10.2% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    50

    average · better than 51% at his level

    12 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    53

    above average · better than 62% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .799 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    52

    average · better than 59% at his level · context, not a skill

    0.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 49th percentile of the cohort, production at the 62th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 49 and his production sits at 62, a gap of -13. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 29th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.9 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

244

AVG

.239

OBP

.320

SLG

.479

OPS

.799

better than 62%

HR

12

SB

5

BB%

10.2

K%

31.1

Is this player getting better?

About the same as last season — .812 to .799 OPS.

Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.812→.799

Power

.246→.240

Walks

9.2%▲10.2%

Strikeouts

33.8%▼31.1%

Last season, 402 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market25 listed · 25 eBay-verified · 17 not shown above
Listings
25

25 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$5.49
Median ask
$12.13
Cheapest 1st auto
$5.49
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$11.34

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 17 cards

  • $11.48Nick Schnell 2018 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto Autograph (5)LOTTERY
  • $11.48Nick Schnell 2018 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto Autograph (4)LOTTERY
  • $11.48Nick Schnell 2018 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto Autograph (3)LOTTERY
  • $12.132018 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Purple Refractor 141/250 Nick Schnell Auto r9dLOTTERY
  • $13.24Nick Schnell 2018 Bowman Chrome Auto Purple 1st RC Refractor #ed /250 PadresLOTTERY
  • $15.592018 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 448/499 Nick Schnell #CDA-NS Auto sc2LOTTERY
  • $16.732018 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Nick Schnell #CDA-NS Auto w3hLOTTERY
  • $17.312018 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 422/499 Nick Schnell #CDA-NS Auto x4fLOTTERY
  • $22.722018 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 415/499 Nick Schnell #CDA-NS Auto 1v7LOTTERY
  • $25.452018 Bowman Draft Chrome Class 2018 Autograph BGS 9.5/10 AUTO Nick Schnell #/250NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $26.94Nick Schnell 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome Purple Refractor Auto #/250 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $27.092018 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Nick Schnell #CDA-NS BGS 9.5 GEM MINT Auto 10h2NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $29.392018 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Blue Wave Refractor Nick Schnell PSA 9 Auto 10h2NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2018 Bowman Draft Chrome Nick Schnell Base Auto Tampa Bay Rays 1st #2NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2018 Bowman Draft Chrome Nick Schnell Base Auto Tampa Bay Rays 1st #1NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2018 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto NICK SCHNELL 1st Bowman RC, NATIONALS #CDA-NSNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2018 Bowman Chrome Nick Schnell 1st Rookie Autograph AUTO Tampa Bay Rays #CDA-NSNEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now