Deal Sniper

Matt Shaw

RF · Triple-A · 24.0y · #2103 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

49 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

26 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Draft - Chrome Prospect Auto… at $230. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Matt Shaw scores 49 out of 100 (#2103 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 27 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.

  • Power: below average

    .084 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Speed: above average

    22 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 72% at his level.

  • Bat-first profile

    RF — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    Little power for his level (20th percentile); 24.0 is old for a prospect card.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    27 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Corner-only profile

    RF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

26 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 26 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 20 are under "The whole live market".

  • Matt Shaw Signed 1st Bowman Chrome Refractor Auto Chicago Cubs Rookie Card RC

    Refractor · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $55.98

    modeled ~$8.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Matt Shaw 2023 Bowman Draft 1st Chrome Auto #CDA-MA PSA 10 GM CHI SP GEM MINT RC

    base · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 12d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $105.99

    modeled ~$127.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Matt Shaw #CDA-MS PSA 9 MINT Auto 01ic

    base · PSA 9 · listed 4d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $117.94

    modeled ~$35.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Matt Shaw 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO BLACK REFRACTOR /75 Cubs SGC 9.5 RC z4

    /75 · SGC 9.5 · listed 9d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 90h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $129.98

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Matt Shaw #CDA-MS PSA 10 GEM MT Auto qx6

    base · PSA 10 · listed 3d

    Not a core card · 2 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $197.59

    modeled ~$124.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft - Chrome Prospect Auto Matt Shaw 1st - Blue Refractor PSA 10

    Blue Refractor · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 5d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $230.17

    modeled ~$124.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Matt Shaw, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $27.99–$58.78, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in psa 10 autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing PSA 10 autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $105.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $105.99 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Aqua WaveTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $279.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $279.99 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +164%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $230.17, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $230.17 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -18%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Aqua Lava /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $305.17, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $305.17 live
    Scarcity
    199 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +33%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Gold Refractor 1/1THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $3406.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $3406.99 live
    Scarcity
    1 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +1016%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

19 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 50 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 50 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    51

    average · better than 53% at his level

    22.2% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    42

    below average · better than 20% at his level

    .084 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    51

    average · better than 54% at his level

    11.1% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    56

    above average · better than 72% at his level

    22 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    55

    above average · better than 68% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .824 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    61

    plus · better than 87% at his level · context, not a skill

    +2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 50th percentile of the cohort, production at the 68th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 50 and his production sits at 68, a gap of -18. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 21th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.3 / 10

  • already at Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

27

AVG

.333

OBP

.407

SLG

.417

OPS

.824

better than 68%

HR

0

SB

1

BB%

11.1

K%

22.2

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market26 listed · 26 eBay-verified · 20 not shown above
Listings
26

26 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$55.98
Median ask
$300.99
Cheapest 1st auto
$55.98
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$129.98

Latest eBay verification: 7 hours ago.

The other 20 cards

  • $279.99Matt Shaw Signed 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Aqua Wave PSA 10 Auto Chicago Cubs POP 1NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $280.98MATT SHAW - 2023 Bowman Draft 1st Chrome Image Variation Refractor #/99, AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $304.93#61/99 Matt Shaw Auto 1st Bowman Chrome Draft Green Refractor Autograph PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $304.94#82/99 Matt Shaw Auto 1st Bowman Chrome Draft Green Refractor Autograph PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $304.94SGC 9.5 #/199 Matt Shaw Auto 1st Bowman Chrome Sapphire Blue Refractor AutographNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $305.172023 Bowman Draft Matt Shaw 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Aqua Lava /199 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $330.452023 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Matt Shaw 1st Green Refractor Auto /99 Chicago CubsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $336.75Matt Shaw 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Gold Sapphire /50 Signed Auto Autograph #33 PSANEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $357.982023 BOWMAN DRAFT CHROME SAPPHIRE MATT SHAW 1ST GOLD AUTO /50 PSA 9 PROSPECTNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $476.092025 Bowman Chrome Relics Orange Refractor 1/25 Matt Shaw Rookie Auto RC 0y2qNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $3406.992025 Bowman Chrome Mega Box Matt Shaw Rookie Auto Rose Gold Refractor 1/1 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Draft Matt Shaw Chrome Auto Refractor 1st #/499 Cubs SGC 10/10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Matt Shaw Bowman Draft Sapphire Auto Green Refractor /99 1st PSA 9 Cubs NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —MATT SHAW - 2023 Bowman Draft 1st Chrome Image Variation Refractor #/99, AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —PSA 10 Matt Shaw 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto RC #CDA-MS - Gem MintNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2023 Bowman Draft Matt Shaw #CDA-MS Chrome Prospect Auto RC PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Draft Matt Shaw 1st Bowman Aqua Lava 064/199 Auto PSA 9⚡️NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman Chrome Matt Shaw Glad Auto Gold Mini Dmnd. Refractor SGC Auto 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $255.992023 Bowman Chrome Matt Shaw 1st Auto Blue Wave /150PASS
  • $300.992023 Bowman Chrome Matt Shaw 1st Auto Green Lava /99PASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now