Deal Sniper

Jace Avina

LF · Double-A · 23.0y · #487 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

65 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

12 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Sapphire Jace Avina Chrome Auto…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Jace Avina scores 65 out of 100 (#487 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 80% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: corner-only profile — lF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +1.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 80% of the players there.

  • OPS slipping

    .918 last season to .824 this one.

  • Power: plus

    .229 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 87% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    High-A to Double-A.

  • Bat-first profile

    LF — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.

  • Plate discipline: above average

    12.7% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 73% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Corner-only profile

    LF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

12 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 12 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 6 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome - Jace Avina 1st Auto Refractor /499

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 9d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $35.49

    modeled ~$34.33

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • JACE AVINA 2023 Bowman Chrome 1ST BOWMAN SPARKLES AUTO /299 Yankees

    /299 · raw · condition not stated · listed 13d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $36.50

    modeled ~$29.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Jace Avina 1st Auto Purple Refractor /250 Brewers CPA-JAA

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 10d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $40.98

    modeled ~$26.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome JACE AVINA 1st 🔥Auto Blue Lunar Crater Refractor/150 Yankees

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 12d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $53.75

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Jace Avina SGC 9.5 2023 Bowman 1st Chrome Purple Refractor Auto 22/250 Yankees

    /250 · SGC 9.5 · listed 12d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $87.90

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Jace Avina 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Green Shimmer Refractor Auto 81/99 PSA 10

    /99 · PSA 10 · listed 143d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $306.48

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Jace Avina, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $17.75–$37.26, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $35.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $35.49 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Sparkle /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $36.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $36.50 live
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +3%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $40.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $40.98 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +12%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue Lunar Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $53.75, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $53.75 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +31%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

4 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 55 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 55 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    52

    average · better than 56% at his level

    24.3% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    61

    plus · better than 87% at his level

    .229 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    56

    above average · better than 73% at his level

    12.7% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    51

    average · better than 52% at his level

    19 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    58

    plus · better than 80% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .824 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    58

    plus · better than 80% at his level · context, not a skill

    +1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 67th percentile of the cohort, production at the 80th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 67 and his production sits at 80, a gap of -13. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 28th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.2 / 10

  • already at Double-A
  • hitting well — 0.824 OPS in 449 PA (not ranked against his level)

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

449

AVG

.245

OBP

.350

SLG

.474

OPS

.824

better than 80%

HR

19

SB

14

BB%

12.7

K%

24.3

Is this player getting better?

Down from .918 to .824 OPS, but he moved up to Double-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.

Moved up from High-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.918▼.824

Power

.211▲.229

Walks

13.6%→12.7%

Strikeouts

24.4%→24.3%

Last season, 221 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market12 listed · 12 eBay-verified · 6 not shown above
Listings
12

12 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$35.49
Median ask
$47.36
Cheapest 1st auto
$35.49
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$35.49

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 6 cards

  • —2023 Bowman Sapphire Jace Avina Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #BSPA-JA YankeesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Jace Avina AUTO 2023 Bowman Chrome /499 Refractor 1st YankeesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Jace Avina Chrome Auto Blue Lunar Crater Refractor 1st #/150 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Jace Avina 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto RC Refractor /499 #CPA-JAA - NY YankeesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome JACE AVINA orange shimmer refractor auto 15/25 - RC - 1stNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Jace Avina 1st prospect auto orange shimmer /25 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now