Jansel Luis
2B · Double-A · 21.0y · #558 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
63 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
17 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is PSA 10 2025 Bowman 1st Chrome Jansel Luis… at $337. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Solid prospect, untested market.
Jansel Luis scores 63 out of 100 (#558 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Young for the level
+3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
Plate discipline: well below
5.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed: above average
32 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 75% at his level.
Moved up and held it
High-A to Double-A.
Premium position
2B — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Power: above average
.175 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 70% at his level.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
17 cards of his are listed, 2 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 15 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 9 are under "The whole live market".
2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Orange Reptilian Refractor Auto #23/25 Jansel Luis
/25 · raw · condition not stated · listed 154d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$255.99
modeled $9.75
PASS
2025 Bowman Chrome Jansel Luis Black X-Fractor 1st Auto /10 CPA-JLU Diamondbacks
/10 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 26d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled $9.75
PASS
2025 Bowman Jansel Luis 1st Chrome Red Refractor Auto /5
/5 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 7d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$1499.99
modeled $9.75
PASS
Jansel Luis 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Green Grass Refractor /99 RC Prospect
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$51.98
modeled $5.85
PASS
2025 Bowman Jansel Luis #CPA-JLU Reptilian Green /99 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $5.85
PASS
Jansel Luis 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Green Grass Refractor /99
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 10d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $5.85
PASS
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder6 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $31.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $31.99 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $119.67, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $119.67 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +274%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - HTA Choice Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $45.48, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $45.48 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -62%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Grass Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $51.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $51.98 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +14%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Orange Reptilian Refractor /25 and underTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $255.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $255.99 live
- Scarcity
- 25 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +393%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Red Refractor /5 and underTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $1499.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $1499.99 live
- Scarcity
- 5 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +486%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
4 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 50 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 50 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
50
average · better than 51% at his level
25.1% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
55
above average · better than 70% at his level
.175 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
38
well below · better than 11% at his level
5.0% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
57
above average · better than 75% at his level
32 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
54
above average · better than 66% at his level · the result, not a skill
.760 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
69
plus-plus · better than 97% at his level · context, not a skill
+3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 52th percentile of the cohort, production at the 66th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 52 and his production sits at 66, a gap of -14. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 27th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 6.6 / 10
- already at Double-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
483
AVG
.270
OBP
.315
SLG
.445
OPS
.760
better than 66%
HR
16
SB
26
BB%
5.0
K%
25.1
Is this player getting better?
About the same as last season — .764 to .760 OPS.
Moved up from High-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.764→.760
Power
.118▲.175
Walks
6.0%▼5.0%
Strikeouts
16.3%▲25.1%
Last season, 447 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market17 listed · 17 eBay-verified · 9 not shown above
- Listings
- 17
- Lowest live
- $31.99
- Median ask
- $119.67
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $31.99
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $31.99
17 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 7 hours ago.
The other 9 cards
- $31.99Jansel Luis 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Refractor #151/499PASS
- $31.99Jansel Luis 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Refractor #151/499PASS
- —2025 Bowman Jansel Luis 1st Chrome Auto #CPA-JLUPASS
- $307.49PSA 10 2025 Bowman Chrome Jansel Luis Blue X-Factor 1st Auto # /150 SP DbacksNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $337.49PSA 10 2025 Bowman 1st Chrome Jansel Luis Green Rep Ref 1st Auto # /99 SP DbacksNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman 1st Chrome Prospect GOLD REFRACTOR AUTO/50 Jansel Luis Arizona PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Jansel Luis 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Orange Shimmer Auto /25 PSA 10 SSP! Rare! NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $45.482025 Bowman Chrome Prospect HTA Choice Refractor /150 Jansel Luis Auto 06l3PASS
- $119.672025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 Jansel Luis #CPA-JLU Auto 11s9PASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run