Billy Carlson
SS · Kannapolis Cannon Ballers · Low-A · 20.0y · #2296 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait for a better price
47 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
36 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is Billy Carlson 2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Auto… at $50.98. Needs a $26 drop.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Billy Carlson scores 47 out of 100 (#2296 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 83% of the players there.
His core Bowman card has been selling at $29–39 off 3 confirmed sales.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Young for the level
+1.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 83% of the players there.
Power: below average
.082 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Plate discipline: plus
16.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 80% at his level.
Premium position
SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Speed: above average
30 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 69% at his level.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman draft chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-BC — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 3 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
$28.80–38.50midpoint $35.00
Confirmed· 3 salesmost recent 2026-08-24 · 3 listed now
- 7 days
- not enough sales
- 30 days
- not enough sales
- 90 days
- not enough sales
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2025 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-BC
Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto
The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 3 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is Billy Carlson 2025 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CPA-BC White Sox at $71, 122% over the $11.50–35 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
That card at or under $11.50 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- Needs a $26 drop
- Player not there yet
- Billy Carlson 2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Auto… at or under $25.60 delivered.
- On his best-priced card: not a core card.
What is for sale right now
36 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 36 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 30 are under "The whole live market".
2025-26 Bowman Chrome Billy Carlson Auto Mojo Refractor #BMA-BC White Sox
Mojo Refractor · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 2d
Not a core card · 2 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
—
sold $11.50–35
PASS · 74% under
2026 Bowman #CPA-BC Billy Carlson 1st Prospect Auto Green Shimmer 52/99 BJCO
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 8d
Not a core card · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $31.10–97.02
PASS
2026 Bowman #CPA-BC Billy Carlson 1st Prospect Auto Green Shimmer 75/99 BJCO
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 8d
Not a core card · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $31.10–97.02
PASS
BILLY CARLSON 2025 BOWMAN DRAFT #CPA-BC CHROME AUTO 1ST PROSPECT WHITE SOX
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 2d
Priced above value · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $11.50–35
PASS · 6% under
BILLY CARLSON 2026 BOWMAN CHROME GREEN LAVA REFRACTOR AUTO /99 # CPA-BC
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
—
modeled $31.10–97.02
PASS
2026 Bowman #CPA-BC Billy Carlson Chrome Speckle Refractor Auto #/299
/299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$35.90
modeled $21.60–67.38
PASS
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Billy Carlson, just what the money can do today.
- Pedro Ramírezbase$35.94Watch14% under fair value
Compared within $17.95–$37.70, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder7 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $50.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $50.98 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Reptilian RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $47.94, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $47.94 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -6%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $35.90, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $35.90 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -25%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Lava /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $385.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $385.00 live
- Scarcity
- 199 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +972%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $300.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $300.00 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -22%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Sapphire /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $231.25, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $231.25 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -23%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Sapphire /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $586.09, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $586.09 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +153%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
10 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 53 on the 20–80 scale, against 530 hitters at Low-A
What he is good at
skills overall 53 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 530 hitters at Low-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
53
above average · better than 63% at his level
22.6% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
45
below average · better than 32% at his level
.082 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
58
plus · better than 80% at his level
16.0% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
55
above average · better than 69% at his level
30 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
52
average · better than 58% at his level · the result, not a skill
.726 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
60
plus · better than 83% at his level · context, not a skill
+1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 61th percentile of the cohort, production at the 58th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 61 and his production sits at 58, a gap of +3. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 529 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 52th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.0 / 10
- nothing stands out either way
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Low-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 530 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
257
AVG
.256
OBP
.388
SLG
.338
OPS
.726
better than 58%
HR
0
SB
13
BB%
16.0
K%
22.6
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market36 listed · 36 eBay-verified · 30 not shown above
- Listings
- 36
- Lowest live
- $35.90
- Median ask
- $231.25
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $50.98
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $231.25
36 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 7 hours ago.
The other 30 cards
- $256.49PSA 10 GM Bowman Draft 2025 Billy Carlson White Sox #CPA-BC 1st Chrome Auto CWSNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $1050.002025 Bowman Chrome Draft Billy Carlson PSA 10 Autographs Sparkle Refractors AUTONEEDS EVIDENCE
- $1506.142025 Bowman Chrome Billy Carlson 1st Auto Orange Wave Refractor /25 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $1999.992025 Bowman Draft Billy Carlson 1st Chrome Black Refractor Auto /10 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $6006.992025 Bowman Chrome Draft Billy Carlson #CPA-BC 1st Black Auto 7/10 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Billy Carlson 1st Sparkle Auto /71 PSA 10 White Sox NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Billy Carlson 2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Auto Aqua Lava PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Draft Sapphire Billy Carlson 1st Auto Green Refractor/99🔥PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Billy Carlson 1st Black Auto /10 White SoxPASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Billy Carlson 1st Bowman Auto /199 PSA10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Billy Carlson Refractor Auto /499 2025 Bowman 1st Chicago White Sox PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $231.252025 Bowman Draft Sapphire Billy Carlson 1st Bowman Green Auto /99 - Chicago SoxPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto Billy Carlson Green Lava #/99 🔥 White SoxPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Billy Carlson Green /99 White SoxPASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Billy Carlson True Green Refractor Auto/99 CPA-BCPASS
- $300.002025 Bowman Draft Chrome Billy Carlson Auto SP Image Variation /99 1st White SoxPASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft #CPA-BC (1st) Billy Carlson Chrome Prospect Auto- Green /99 SPPASS
- $46.632026 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor 55/299 Billy Carlson Auto 9suPASS
- —2025 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Refractor Billy Carlson Auto 450/499 RC White SoxPASS
- $586.092025 Bowman Chrome Draft Sapphire Prospect Gold 17/50 Billy Carlson Auto 1u3bPASS
- $385.002025 1st Bowman Auto Billy Carlson Green Lava /199 1st Bowman Auto #2/199PASS
- $47.94Billy Carlson Auto Signed 2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Fuchsia Reptilian RefractorPASS
- $50.98Billy Carlson 2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Auto - 1st Bowman - White SoxPASS
- $52.972025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Billy Carlson #CPA-BC Auto 0j0oPASS
- $59.282025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Billy Carlson #CPA-BC Auto 0c3wPASS
- $66.00Billy Carlson 2025 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CPA-BC White SoxPASS
- $71.00Billy Carlson 2025 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CPA-BC White SoxPASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Autographs Billy Carlson 1st Auto #CPA-BCPASS
- —2025 Bowman - Billy Carlson 1st Bowman Base Refractor AutoPASS
- —2026 Bowman #CPA-BC Billy Carlson Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor Auto /250PASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run