Deal Sniper

Dakota Jordan

CF · Richmond Flying Squirrels · Double-A · 23.0y · #1706 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

52 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Expensive

His best /150 asks $310, over the $224 that card has sold in.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2024 1st Bowman Chrome Dakota Jordan Auto…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, expensive market.

Dakota Jordan scores 52 out of 100 (#1706 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 80% of the players there.

We have 1 confirmed sale of his cards in the last 90 days, but no standardized benchmark card yet, so the price side rests on whatever is listed rather than on one comparable series.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 38 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +1.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 80% of the players there.

  • Plate discipline: below average

    7.9% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • OPS slipping

    .874 last season to .742 this one.

  • Power slipping

    .186 last season to .114 this one.

  • Speed: plus-plus

    79 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 97% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    Low-A to Double-A.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    38 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Thin comp evidence

    1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

  • Asks above the sold band

    Every live card of his we can price is asking more than these have actually sold for, so today's entry is at a premium.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2024 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-DJ — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 3 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 3 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2024 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-DJ

Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto

The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 3 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2024 Topps 1st Bowman Chrome HTA Auto /150 Dakota Jordan PSA 10 Gem MT Auto at $310, 39% over the $224 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

/150 at or under $224 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet
  • On his best-priced card: evidence still thin.

What is for sale right now

14 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 14 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 8 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2024 Topps 1st Bowman Chrome HTA Auto /150 Dakota Jordan PSA 10 Gem MT Auto

    /150 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 46d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    $309.99

    sold $224

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Draft DAKOTA JORDAN 1st Chrome Auto CPA-DJ - SF Giants Prospect RC

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 12d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $49.89

    modeled ~$9.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Draft Dakota Jordan 1st Chrome Gold Wave Auto /50 CPA-DJ

    /50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 279d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $306.08

    modeled ~$400.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Draft Dakota Jordan 1st Chrome Auto Gold Shimmer /50 PSA 10

    /50 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 4d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $899.99

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 1st Bowman Chrome Dakota Jordan Auto CPA-DJ Giants

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 4d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled ~$9.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 1st Bowman Chrome Dakota Jordan Auto Giants

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 13d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Identity uncertain — the year

    —

    modeled ~$9.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Dakota Jordan, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $19.01–$39.92, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder2 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $38.02 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Gold Wave /50THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $306.08, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $306.08 live
    Scarcity
    50 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +705%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

4 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 55 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 55 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    59

    plus · better than 82% at his level

    18.4% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    46

    below average · better than 33% at his level

    .114 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    45

    below average · better than 30% at his level

    7.9% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    69

    plus-plus · better than 97% at his level

    79 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    53

    above average · better than 61% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .742 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    58

    plus · better than 80% at his level · context, not a skill

    +1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 61th percentile of the cohort, production at the 61th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 61 and his production sits at 61, a gap of 0. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 48th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.5 / 10

  • already at Double-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

38

AVG

.286

OBP

.342

SLG

.400

OPS

.742

better than 61%

HR

0

SB

5

BB%

7.9

K%

18.4

Is this player getting better?

Down from .874 to .742 OPS, but he moved up to Double-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.

Moved up from Low-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.874▼.742

Power

.186▼.114

Walks

8.9%▼7.9%

Strikeouts

22.8%▼18.4%

Last season, 416 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold for1 logged sale

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

Only 1 sale logged so far. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
  • 2026-08-26 — $39.99 plus $0.00 shipping · tracked disappearance — not a confirmed sale proof
The whole live market14 listed · 14 eBay-verified · 8 not shown above
Listings
14

14 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$38.02
Median ask
$184.70
Cheapest 1st auto
$49.89
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$306.08

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 8 cards

  • —2024 Bowman Draft Chrome DAKOTA JORDAN Auto Purple Refractor /250 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Bowman 1st Auto Dakota Jordan #CPA-DJ NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Dakota Jordan 2024 1st Bowman Auto True Yellow /75 Au Rc Giants (CPA-DJ)NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman Draft DAKOTA JORDAN 1st Chrome Auto CPA-DJ - SF Giants Prospect RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $38.022024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Dakota Jordan #CPA-DJ Auto 12b0NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $63.322024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Dakota Jordan #CPA-DJ Auto 0j0oNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman Chrome Dakota Jordan 1st Bowman Purple Refractor Auto /250 PSA 9PASS
  • —2024 Bowman Chrome Dakota Jordan 1st Bowman Purple Refractor Auto /250PASS

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now