Deal Sniper

Will Bush

C · Double-A · 22.0y · #975 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

58 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

12 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait for a better price

Closest of his is 2024 Bowman Baseball Chrome Will Bush Auto…. Priced above value.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Will Bush scores 58 out of 100 (#975 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 91% of the players there.

His core Bowman card has been selling at $2–4 off 2 confirmed sales.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: swing-and-miss — contact grades 39 on the 20–80 scale (34.4% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +2.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 91% of the players there.

  • Contact: well below

    34.4% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • OPS slipping

    .811 last season to .759 this one.

  • Power slipping

    .194 last season to .153 this one.

  • Plate discipline: plus

    16.3% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 90% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    High-A to Double-A.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 39 on the 20–80 scale (34.4% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-WB — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 5 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

$2.08–3.58midpoint $2.31

Evidence limited· 2 salesmost recent 2026-08-21 · 5 listed now

7 days
not enough sales
30 days
not enough sales
90 days
not enough sales

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-WB

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 5 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st #CPA-WB Will Bush Auto Purple Refractors /250 at $16.18, 1534% over the $0.99–3.40 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

/250 at or under $0.99 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Priced above value
  • Player not there yet
  • On his best-priced card: waiting on sales.

What is for sale right now

12 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 12 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 6 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2024 Bowman Chrome Will Bush 1st Auto Yellow Refractor 41/75 Astros CPA-WB

    /75 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 14d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    sold $0.99

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Will Bush 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st AUTO Mini Diamond Refractor /100 Houston Astros

    /100 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 37d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $15.39

    modeled $1.87–7.51

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Will Bush 2024 Bowman Chrome CPA-WB 1st Auto Refractor RC 45/499

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 691d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $45.18

    modeled $1.43–5.76

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor Autograph Will Bush /499 Astros 1st Auto

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 2d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    —

    modeled $1.43–5.76

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 1st Bowman Chrome - . WILL BUSH - PSA 10 GEM MINT Purple /250 Prospect Auto

    /250 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 15d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor 132/299 Will Bush #CPA-WB Auto v8j

    /299 · raw · condition not stated · listed 4d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $28.24

    modeled $1.56–6.26

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $8.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $8.98 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $45.18, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $45.18 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +403%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $28.24, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $28.24 live
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -38%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $16.18, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $16.18 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -43%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Mini Diamond Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $15.39, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $15.39 live
    Scarcity
    100 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -5%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

1 listing sits in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 51 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    39

    well below · better than 13% at his level

    34.4% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    52

    average · better than 56% at his level

    .153 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    63

    plus · better than 90% at his level

    16.3% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    51

    average · better than 55% at his level

    21 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    54

    above average · better than 66% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .759 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    63

    plus · better than 91% at his level · context, not a skill

    +2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 54th percentile of the cohort, production at the 66th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 54 and his production sits at 66, a gap of -12. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 29th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.0 / 10

  • already at Double-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

349

AVG

.236

OBP

.370

SLG

.389

OPS

.759

better than 66%

HR

11

SB

12

BB%

16.3

K%

34.4

Is this player getting better?

Down from .811 to .759 OPS, but he moved up to Double-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.

Moved up from High-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.811▼.759

Power

.194▼.153

Walks

14.8%▲16.3%

Strikeouts

28.3%▲34.4%

Last season, 297 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market12 listed · 12 eBay-verified · 6 not shown above
Listings
12

12 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$8.98
Median ask
$15.39
Cheapest 1st auto
$8.98
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$15.39

Latest eBay verification: 1 day ago.

The other 6 cards

  • $8.982024 Bowman Chrome Will Bush 1st Bowman Auto CPA-WB Astros Nice Bold Center AutoPASS
  • $10.00Topps 2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs Auto RC 1st Bowman Will Bush CPA-WBPASS
  • $14.002024 Bowman Chrome 1st Will Bush Auto Houston Astros #CPA-WBPASS
  • $16.182024 Bowman Chrome 1st #CPA-WB Will Bush Auto Purple Refractors /250PASS
  • —2024 Bowman Baseball Chrome Will Bush Auto #CPA-WB 1st Prospect Houston AstrosPASS
  • —2024 Bowman Baseball Chrome Will Bush Auto #CPA-WB 1st Prospect Houston AstrosPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now