Deal Sniper

Cade Marlowe

CF · Triple-A · 29.0y · #3061 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

44 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

20 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Cade Marlowe scores 44 out of 100 (#3061 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: speed: plus — 38 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 89% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: age for the level — -3.0y vs his level at Triple-A puts him younger than only 17% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.

The signal

  • Old for the level

    -3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than only 17% of the players there.

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Speed: plus

    38 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 89% at his level.

  • Premium position

    CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Power: above average

    .198 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 72% at his level.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    CF is a position the hobby pays up for; 29.0 is old for a prospect card.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Age for the level

    -3.0y vs his level at Triple-A puts him younger than only 17% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-CM — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 7 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 8 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-CM

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 7 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $5.17 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

20 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 20 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 14 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Cade Marlowe AUTO #CPA-CM + 2024 Topps RC #286

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 176d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $5.17

    modeled ~$9.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospects Cade Marlowe 1st on Card Auto CPA-CM

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 777d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $10.08

    modeled ~$9.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue RayWave Refractor /150 Cade Marlowe Auto 0p10

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 1d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $13.26

    modeled ~$20.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 1st Bowman Chrome Auto CPA-CM Cade Marlowe

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 232d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 55h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $13.30

    modeled ~$9.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • CADE MARLOWE 2022 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-CM

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 385d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 55h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $13.99

    modeled ~$9.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor 11/299 Cade Marlowe Auto 0p10

    /299 · raw · condition not stated · listed 1d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $16.73

    modeled ~$13.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $5.17, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $5.17 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $16.73, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $16.73 live
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +224%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $21.92, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $21.92 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +31%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue RayWave Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $13.26, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $13.26 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -40%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

7 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 55 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 55 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    52

    average · better than 58% at his level

    21.2% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    56

    above average · better than 72% at his level

    .198 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    49

    average · better than 48% at his level

    10.6% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    62

    plus · better than 89% at his level

    38 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    59

    plus · better than 81% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .898 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    40

    well below · better than 17% at his level · context, not a skill

    -3.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 67th percentile of the cohort, production at the 81th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 67 and his production sits at 81, a gap of -14. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 28th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.2 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A
  • hitting well — 0.898 OPS in 444 PA (not ranked against his level)

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

444

AVG

.312

OBP

.388

SLG

.510

OPS

.898

better than 81%

HR

11

SB

28

BB%

10.6

K%

21.2

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season — .875 up to .898 OPS.

Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.875▲.898

Power

.158▲.198

Walks

12.6%▼10.6%

Strikeouts

23.6%▼21.2%

Last season, 182 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market20 listed · 20 eBay-verified · 14 not shown above
Listings
20

20 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$5.17
Median ask
$19.33
Cheapest 1st auto
$5.17
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$305.00

Latest eBay verification: 12 hours ago.

The other 14 cards

  • $21.922022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 Cade Marlowe #CPA-CM Auto 1j91LOTTERY
  • $30.98Cade Marlowe 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autograph 1st Bowman PSA 9 Mint AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $31.002022 Bowman Chrome Cade Marlowe Purple Refractor Auto /250 #CPA-CM BGS 9.5/10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $34.952022 Bowman Chrome Cade Marlowe Purple Refractor Auto /250 PSA 9 Mint - CPA-CMNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $305.00CADE MARLOWE 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto ORANGE SHIMMER /25 * PSA 9 Mint * btNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $515.692022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Orange Refractor 2/25 Cade Marlowe SGC 9.5 Auto 1f5hNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Cade Marlowe Auto /5 Mariners #CPA-CMNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Cade Marlowe 1st Auto #CPA-CM MarinersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Cade Marlowe 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospects Auto #CPA-CM 1st BowmanNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Cade Marlowe 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospects Auto #CPA-CM 1st BowmanNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Cade Marlowe 2022 Bowman 1st Chrome Purple Refractor Auto /250 CPA-CM MarinersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome - CADE MARLOWE - 1ST Prospects AUTO - MARINERS BaseballNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CADE MARLOWE Speckle Refractor /299 Mariners PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Cade Marlowe Yellow Refractor 1st Bowman Auto RC /75 PSA 10 NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now