Deal Sniper

Luis Almanzar

CF · Rookie · 17.0y · #3148 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

43 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

19 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2017 Bowman Chrome Luis Almanzar 1st… at $3.50. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Luis Almanzar scores 43 out of 100 (#3148 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Rookie — younger than 100% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 4 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +2.0y vs his level at Rookie — younger than 100% of the players there.

  • Power: bottom of the scale

    .000 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Plate discipline: plus-plus

    25.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 94% at his level.

  • Premium position

    CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    Little power for his level (6th percentile); CF is a position the hobby pays up for.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    4 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2017 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-LAL — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2017 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-LAL

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $3.50 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

19 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 19 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 13 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2017 Bowman Chrome Luis Almanzar 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-LAL Padres

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 895d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $3.50

    modeled ~$20.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Luis Almanzar 2017 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Padres

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 170d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $4.99

    modeled ~$20.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor 2/250 Luis Almanzar Auto 4n0

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $7.30

    modeled ~$41.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor 19/250 Luis Almanzar Auto c5r

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 2d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $7.53

    modeled ~$41.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 15/499 Luis Almanzar #CPA-LAL Auto c5r

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $7.53

    modeled ~$46.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Luis Almanzar #CPA-LAL Auto 0w7

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 17d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $7.66

    modeled ~$46.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $3.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $3.50 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $7.53, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $7.53 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +115%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $7.30, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $7.30 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -3%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $18.47, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $18.47 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +153%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

11 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 46 on the 20–80 scale, against 1087 hitters at Rookie

What he is good at

skills overall 46 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 1087 hitters at Rookie — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    46

    below average · better than 36% at his level

    25.0% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    34

    bottom of the scale · better than 6% at his level

    .000 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    66

    plus-plus · better than 94% at his level

    25.0% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    39

    well below · better than 14% at his level

    0 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    27

    bottom of the scale · better than 1% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .250 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    80

    elite · better than 100% at his level · context, not a skill

    +2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 38th percentile of the cohort, production at the 1th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 96% of the players he is measured against.

The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.

How this is read: his skills average 38 and his production sits at 1, a gap of +37. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 1,087 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 96th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.0 / 10

  • young for Rookie

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 68% of what it wants to know — missing readiness, production.

How he is playingThe Rookie line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 1087 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

4

AVG

.000

OBP

.250

SLG

.000

OPS

.250

better than 1%

HR

0

SB

0

BB%

25.0

K%

25.0

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market19 listed · 19 eBay-verified · 13 not shown above
Listings
19

19 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$3.50
Median ask
$16.23
Cheapest 1st auto
$3.50
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$13.99

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 13 cards

  • $8.232017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 Luis Almanzar Auto 1k0sLOTTERY
  • $13.992017 LUIS ALMANZAR 1st Bowman Chrome GREEN REFRACTOR Auto RC - BGS 9.5/10 - #/99LOTTERY
  • $18.472017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor /150 Luis Almanzar #CPA-LAL Auto 0c6LOTTERY
  • $19.992017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Luis Almanzar Purple Parallel /250 BGS 9.5/10LOTTERY
  • $23.992017 LUIS ALMANZAR Bowman Chrome PURPLE REFR Auto RC - BGS 9.5/10 - x/250LOTTERY
  • $24.792017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Luis Almanzar #CPA-LAL BGS 9.5 GEM MINT Auto 0nr3LOTTERY
  • $29.492017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Refractor Luis Almanzar Bgs 10 Pristine *A-7*NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $30.532017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Luis Almanzar #CPA-LAL BGS 9.5 GEM MINT Auto 0l2NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $32.502017 LUIS ALMANZAR Bowman Chrome Auto RC - BGS 9.5/10 - Gem MintNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $35.142017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Luis Almanzar #CPA-LAL PSA 9 MINT Auto 0a2NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Luis Almanzar CPA-LAL Purple /250 BGS 9.5NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2017 BOWMAN CHROME LUIS ALMANZAR RC GOLD REFRACTOR AUTO #28/50 BGS 9.5 AUTO 10 NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2017 1st Bowman Chrome Luis Almanzar Refractor Auto SP /499 PSA 10 Gem MintNEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now