Naibel Mariano
SS · Rookie · 19.0y · #3267 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
41 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
25 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2025 Bowman 1st Blue Chrome Auto Naibel… at $306. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Naibel Mariano scores 41 out of 100 (#3267 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: premium position — SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Plate discipline: well below
8.4% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
OPS slipping
.788 last season to .707 this one.
Power slipping
.170 last season to .107 this one.
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Premium position
SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
What the hobby pays up for
SS is a position the hobby pays up for; only 19.0 — years of runway.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-NM — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-NM
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
25 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 25 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 19 are under "The whole live market".
2025 Bowman Chrome Naibel Mariano #CPA-NM Prospect 1st Auto Cincinnati Reds
Red · raw · takes offers · listed 235d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$10.99
modeled ~$8.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2025 Bowman Chrome Naibel Mariano 1st Bowman Auto CPA-NM Reds
Red · raw · takes offers · listed 12d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$11.09
modeled ~$8.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2025 Bowman Naibel Mariano 1st Refractor Auto /499 CPA-NM - Reds
/499 · raw · takes offers · listed 14d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 90h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$11.45
modeled ~$17.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor 193/299 Naibel Mariano Auto 10z2
/299 · raw · condition not stated · listed 4d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$28.24
modeled ~$6.99
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor 234/250 Naibel Mariano Auto 14ns
/250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$28.47
modeled ~$10.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2025 Bowman Chrome Naibel Mariano PSA 9 True Purple Refractor Auto /250 Reds
/250 · PSA 9 · listed 21d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$40.17
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder8 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- RedTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $10.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $10.99 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- SuperfractorTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $12014.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $12014.99 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +109227%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Red Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $11.45, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $11.45 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -100%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $51.82, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $51.82 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +353%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $28.24, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $28.24 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -46%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $28.47, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $28.47 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +1%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $305.60, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $305.60 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +973%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Red /25 and underTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $354.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $354.98 live
- Scarcity
- 10 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +16%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
3 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 46 on the 20–80 scale, against 1087 hitters at Rookie
What he is good at
skills overall 46 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 1087 hitters at Rookie — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
47
average · better than 40% at his level
23.3% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
50
average · better than 50% at his level
.107 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
37
well below · better than 9% at his level
8.4% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
48
average · better than 42% at his level
22 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
48
average · better than 42% at his level · the result, not a skill
.707 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
51
average · better than 54% at his level · context, not a skill
0.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 35th percentile of the cohort, production at the 42th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 35 and his production sits at 42, a gap of -7. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 1,087 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 39th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.2 / 10
- nothing stands out either way
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 82% of what it wants to know — missing readiness.
How he is playingThe Rookie line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 1087 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
249
AVG
.265
OBP
.335
SLG
.372
OPS
.707
better than 42%
HR
3
SB
9
BB%
8.4
K%
23.3
Is this player getting better?
Down from .788 to .707 OPS this season.
Still at Rookie, the same level as last season.
OPS
.788▼.707
Power
.170▼.107
Walks
4.2%▲8.4%
Strikeouts
21.0%▲23.3%
Last season, 143 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market25 listed · 25 eBay-verified · 19 not shown above
- Listings
- 25
- Lowest seen
- $10.99
- Median ask
- $40.17
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $10.99
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $11.45
25 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 7 hours ago.
The other 19 cards
- $51.822025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 328/499 Naibel Mariano #CPA-NM Auto 4k8NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $305.602025 Bowman 1st Blue Chrome Auto Naibel Mariano Cincinnati Reds /150NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $354.982025 Bowman Chrome Black #CPA-NM Naibel Mariano 1st Auto /10 RedsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $354.99Naibel Mariano 1st Yellow Auto /75 PSA 9 2025 Bowman Chrome MINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Naibel Mariano 2025 Bowman #CPA-NM Chrome 1st Blue X-Fractor AUTO #/150NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Naibel Mariano Chrome Prospect Auto 1st Bowman CPA-NM RedsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Topps Bowman 2025 Naibel Mariano Reds 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CPA-NMNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Naibel Mariano 1st Bowman Prospect Auto CPA-NM Reds RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman - Naibel Mariano (RC) - Chrome Prospect Auto - 1st Bowman - #CPA-NMNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Naibel Mariano Chrome Prospect Auto 1st Bowman RC CPA-NMNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Reds Naibel Mariano 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto #CPA-NMNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman #CPA-NM Naibel Mariano 1st Chrome Prospect Auto Refractor /499NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Naibel Mariano First Bowman RC Auto Purple #CPA-NM /250 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Naibel Mariano 1st Bowman Chrome Auto 2025 Orange Refractor /25 RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome NAIBEL MARIANO #CPA-NM 1st Bowman AUTO Peanuts #’d 5/5 REDSNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Naibel Mariano 2025 Bowman #CPA-NM Chrome 1st Blue X-Fractor AUTO /150NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —NAIBEL MARIANO 2025 BOWMAN #CPA-NM CHROME AUTO REFRACTOR /499 1ST PROSPECT REDSNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Naibel Mariano CPA-NMNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $12014.992025 Bowman Chrome Auto Naibel Mariano SuperfractorNEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run