Deal Sniper

Zander Darby

3B · High-A · 23.0y · #1814 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

52 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

25 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2025 Bowman Draft Zander Darby 1st Chrome… at $11.12. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Zander Darby scores 52 out of 100 (#1814 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: power: plus — .211 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 82% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Contact: below average

    31.4% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • OPS slipping

    .862 last season to .835 this one.

  • Power: plus

    .211 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 82% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    Low-A to High-A.

  • Premium position

    3B — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    3B is a position the hobby pays up for.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-ZD — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 16 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 16 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-ZD

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 16 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $5.85 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

25 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 25 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 19 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2025 Bowman Chrome - Prospect Autographs Zander Darby #CPA-ZD Auto 1st

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 8d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $5.85

    modeled ~$9.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Zander Darby 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-ZD Giants

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 3d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $5.98

    modeled ~$9.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Draft ZANDER DARBY 1st Chrome AUTO Prospect #CPA-ZD Giants 🔥

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 15d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.70

    modeled ~$9.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Chrome Auto #CPA-ZD ZANDER DARBY 1st Prospect RC Giants

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 11d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $7.94

    modeled ~$9.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Prospect Zander Darby Auto San Francisco Giants

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 158d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $10.25

    modeled ~$9.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Zander Darby Auto San Francisco Giants

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 60d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $11.00

    modeled ~$9.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $5.85, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $5.85 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $51.82, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $51.82 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +786%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Green Lava /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $27.90, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $27.90 live
    Scarcity
    99 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -46%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

1 listing sits in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 49 on the 20–80 scale, against 492 hitters at High-A

What he is good at

skills overall 49 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 492 hitters at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    43

    below average · better than 24% at his level

    31.4% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    59

    plus · better than 82% at his level

    .211 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    44

    below average · better than 27% at his level

    8.4% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    49

    average · better than 45% at his level

    13 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    58

    plus · better than 79% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .835 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    51

    average · better than 53% at his level · context, not a skill

    0.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 45th percentile of the cohort, production at the 79th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 94% of the players he is measured against.

The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.

How this is read: his skills average 45 and his production sits at 79, a gap of -34. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 492 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 6th percentile.

Will he get there?

Long shot 4.9 / 10

  • old for High-A
  • hitting well — 0.835 OPS in 427 PA (not ranked against his level)

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 492 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

427

AVG

.279

OBP

.345

SLG

.490

OPS

.835

better than 79%

HR

18

SB

9

BB%

8.4

K%

31.4

Is this player getting better?

Down from .862 to .835 OPS, but he moved up to High-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.

Moved up from Low-A to High-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.862▼.835

Power

.168▲.211

Walks

15.2%▼8.4%

Strikeouts

18.4%▲31.4%

Last season, 244 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market25 listed · 25 eBay-verified · 19 not shown above
Listings
25

25 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$5.85
Median ask
$11.22
Cheapest 1st auto
$5.85
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$27.90

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 19 cards

  • $11.122025 Bowman Draft Zander Darby 1st Chrome Prospect Auto San Francisco GiantsLOTTERY
  • $11.312025 Bowman Chrome Zander Darby On Card Auto Bowman 1stLOTTERY
  • $11.502025 Bowman Chrome Zander Darby Auto Bowman 1st hot prospect 🔥LOTTERY
  • $11.98Zander Darby 2025 Bowman Chrome # CPA-ZD 1st Prospect Auto GIANTS Autograph ZandLOTTERY
  • $11.982025 Bowman Chrome Baseball - 1st Prospect Auto CPA-ZD SF Giants - ZANDER DARBYLOTTERY
  • $12.702025 Bowman Chrome Zander Darby On Card Auto Bowman 1st Giants LOTTERY
  • $27.902025 Bowman Chrome Zander Darby #CPA-ZD Green Lava 1st Bowman Auto /99NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $51.822025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 336/499 Zander Darby #CPA-ZD Auto 4k8NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs Zander Darby #CPA-ZD Auto 1st BowmanNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Zander Darby 1st Yellow Refractor Auto /75 (PSA 10)NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Zander Darby Base AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome | Zander Darby 1st Bowman Speckle Auto */299 #CPA-BW GiantsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Zander Darby #CPA-ZD 1st Bowman Auto True Purple /250NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Zander Darby HTA Mojo Refractor Auto 1st Prospect #/150NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2025 Bowman chrome CPA-ZD Zander Darby 1st Bowman AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —ZANDER DARBY 2025 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTOGRAPH BASE GIANTS B AUTONEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Zander Darby 2025 Bowman Chrome Prospects 1st Auto San Francisco GiantsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —ZANDER DARBY 2025 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTOGRAPH BASE GIANTS AUTONEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Zander Darby #CPA-ZD 1st Bowman Auto NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now