Deal Sniper

Jhon Diaz

CF · Montgomery Biscuits · Double-A · 23.0y · #2096 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

49 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

30 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is Jhon Diaz 2020 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto… at $6.99. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Jhon Diaz scores 49 out of 100 (#2096 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 80% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +1.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 80% of the players there.

  • Contact: below average

    31.2% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • OPS slipping

    .588 last season to .567 this one.

  • Moved up and held it

    High-A to Double-A.

  • Premium position

    CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    CF is a position the hobby pays up for.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2020 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 4 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 4 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2020 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 4 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

30 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 30 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 24 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2020 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor Jhon Diaz 1ST ROOKIE AUTO 188/299

    /299 · raw · condition not stated · listed 153d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data staleLast confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $5.50

    modeled ~$7.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

  • 2020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Sparkle 1st Jhon Diaz Rookie Auto /299 #BCP-30

    /299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 896d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data staleLast confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.05

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

  • Jhon Diaz 2020 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Speckle Refractor /299 Rays CPA-JDI

    /299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 8d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data staleLast confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.99

    modeled ~$7.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

  • 2020 Bowman Jhon Diaz Chrome Auto 1st #CPA-JDI Rays Refractor 383/499

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 384d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data staleLast confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $13.39

    modeled ~$11.69

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

  • 2020 1st Bowman Chrome Jhon Diaz Purple Refractor Auto SP #/250 Rays RC 🔥

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 274d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data staleLast confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $15.99

    modeled ~$10.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

  • Jhon Diaz 2020 Bowman Chrome 1st GOLD Auto Autograph 15/50 Tampa Bay Rays

    /50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 74d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data staleLast confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $16.50

    modeled ~$95.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder6 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $5.64, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $9.84, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +75%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Sparkle /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $6.05, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -39%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $5.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -9%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $15.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +191%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Gold /50THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $16.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    50 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +3%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

18 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 47 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 47 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    42

    below average · better than 22% at his level

    31.2% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    51

    average · better than 52% at his level

    .147 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    49

    average · better than 45% at his level

    9.4% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    45

    below average · better than 32% at his level

    8 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    41

    well below · better than 18% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .567 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    58

    plus · better than 80% at his level · context, not a skill

    +1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 38th percentile of the cohort, production at the 18th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 80% of the players he is measured against.

The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.

How this is read: his skills average 38 and his production sits at 18, a gap of +20. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 80th percentile.

Will he get there?

Long shot 4.9 / 10

  • already at Double-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

160

AVG

.168

OBP

.252

SLG

.315

OPS

.567

better than 18%

HR

4

SB

2

BB%

9.4

K%

31.2

Is this player getting better?

Down from .588 to .567 OPS, but he moved up to Double-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.

Moved up from High-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.588.567

Power

.141.147

Walks

8.4%9.4%

Strikeouts

24.1%31.2%

Last season, 369 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market30 listed · 30 eBay-verified · 24 not shown above
Listings
30

30 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$3.36
Median ask
$17.89
Cheapest 1st auto
$5.50
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$5.50

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 24 cards

  • $21.482020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Green Refractor #d 56/99 Jhon Diaz BGS 9.0 Auto C3NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $24.982020 Bowman Chrome Jhon Diaz Pros. Auto - Gold Shimmer 49/50 #CPAJDI PSA MINT 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $26.452020 Bowman Chrome Jhon Diaz 1st Bowman REFRACTOR AUTO /499 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $30.50JHON DIAZ ROOKIE #/d 15/100 AUTO BGS 9 2020 BOWMAN CHROME CARD TAMPA BAY RAYSNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $36.982020 Bowman Chrome Gold Refractor Jhon Diaz RC Rookie AUTO #04/50 PSA 10 GEM SPNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • 2020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Jhon Diaz Auto 1st Bowman Card GMA GEM MINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • 2020 Bowman Chrome Jhon Diaz Green Refractor Auto /99 SGC 9🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • 2020 Bowman Chrome PSA 10 GEM MT Jhon Diaz Tampa Bay Rays Base Auto ProspectNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • 2020 Jhon Diaz 1st Bowman Chrome Rookie RC Red Auto 4/5 #CPA-JDI TB Rays BGS 9.5NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $5.642020 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect #CPA-JDI Jhon Diaz AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $9.392020 Bowman Jhon Diaz Chrome Auto 1st #CPA-JDI RaysNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $9.992020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Jhon Diaz Auto Tampa Bay Rays #BCP-30 1st CardNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $17.892020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Jhon Diaz #CPA-JDI BGS 9.5 GEM MINT Auto 13c1NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $18.702020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Jhon Diaz #CPA-JDI BGS 9.5 GEM MINT Auto 0nr3NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $23.632020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Jhon Diaz #CPA-JDI BGS 9.5 GEM MINT Auto 00l8NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $30.542020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Jhon Diaz #CPA-JDI BGS 9.5 GEM MINT Auto ya6NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $23.642020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Refractor 248/499 Jhon Diaz PSA 9 MINT Auto br7NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $20.192020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Speckle Refractor /299 Jhon Diaz #CPA-JDI Auto 0lj0NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $9.842020 Bowman Chrome Prospects Refractor 395/499 Jhon Diaz #CPA-JDI Auto v9tNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • 2020 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-JDI Jhon Diaz RC PSA 10 TB Rays /499 SGC 10PASS
  • $3.362020 Bowman Chrome Jhon Diaz Atomic Refractor 1st Rookie RC #30 Non Auto TZ 2M NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • 2020 Bowman Chrome Jhon Diaz Atomic Refractor 1st Rookie RC #30 Non Auto TZ 2M NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • 2020 Bowman Chrome Jhon Diaz Atomic Refractor 1st Rookie RC #BCP-30 Non AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $34.492020 Bowman Chrome JHON DIAZ Prospect Auto Green Refractor /99 #CPA-JDI PSA 9PASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player