Deal Sniper

Francisco Vilorio

CF · Rookie · 19.0y · #4398 of 7,922 we rate

The player
LONG SHOT

35 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

16 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2024 Bowman 1st Chrome Prospect Auto…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Long-shot prospect, untested market.

Francisco Vilorio scores 35 out of 100 (#4398 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: speed: above average — 36 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 63% at his level.

His core Bowman card has been selling at $5–8 off 1 confirmed sale.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: swing-and-miss — contact grades 37 on the 20–80 scale (34.2% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

The signal

  • Plate discipline: well below

    7.7% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Speed: above average

    36 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 63% at his level.

  • Premium position

    CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    CF is a position the hobby pays up for; only 19.0 — years of runway.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 37 on the 20–80 scale (34.2% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-FV — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 7 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

$4.51–7.52midpoint $6.02

Evidence limited· 1 salemost recent 2026-08-26 · 7 listed now

7 days
not enough sales
30 days
not enough sales
90 days
not enough sales

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-FV

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 7 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect HTA Choice Refractor Francisco Vilorio Auto 1k9t at $86.32, 1334% over the $6.02 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

That card at or under $6.02 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

16 cards of his are listed, 2 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 14 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 8 are under "The whole live market".

  • Topps Bowman Chrome 2024 Francisco Vilorio Yankees 1st Bowman RC Auto #CPA-FV

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 0d

    Player not there yet · 2 other things in the way

    —

    sold $6.02

    PASS · 17% under

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Francisco Vilorio PSA 9 MINT Auto b4d

    /499 · PSA 9 · listed 3d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $62.73

    modeled ~$43.64

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman 1st Chrome Prospect Auto Francisco Vilorio #CPAFV PSA 9 Mint Yankees

    base · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 548d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    —

    modeled ~$44.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Chrome Francisco Vilorio Bowman 1st Orange Shimmer Auto /25

    /25 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 16d

    Player not there yet · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $8.13–31.60

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Topps 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Francisco Vilorio Yankees #CPA-FV

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 2d

    Player not there yet · 2 other things in the way

    $10.99

    sold $6.02

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Chrome Francisco Vilorio 1st Auto (RC) #CPA-FV Yankees

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 12d

    Player not there yet · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $11.31

    sold $6.02

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $10.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $10.99 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • HTA Choice RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $86.32, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $86.32 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +685%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $26.52, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $26.52 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -69%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $52.39, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $52.39 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +98%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

2 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 44 on the 20–80 scale, against 1087 hitters at Rookie

What he is good at

skills overall 44 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 1087 hitters at Rookie — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    37

    well below · better than 9% at his level

    34.2% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    49

    average · better than 45% at his level

    .098 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    35

    well below · better than 7% at his level

    7.7% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    53

    above average · better than 63% at his level

    36 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    44

    below average · better than 28% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .649 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    51

    average · better than 54% at his level · context, not a skill

    0.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 31th percentile of the cohort, production at the 28th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 31 and his production sits at 28, a gap of +3. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 1,087 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 55th percentile.

Will he get there?

Long shot 3.9 / 10

  • nothing stands out either way

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 82% of what it wants to know — missing readiness.

How he is playingThe Rookie line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 1087 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

117

AVG

.235

OBP

.316

SLG

.333

OPS

.649

better than 28%

HR

1

SB

7

BB%

7.7

K%

34.2

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market16 listed · 16 eBay-verified · 8 not shown above
Listings
16

16 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$10.99
Median ask
$16.64
Cheapest 1st auto
$10.99
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
—

Latest eBay verification: 7 hours ago.

The other 8 cards

  • $11.422024 Bowman Chrome Francisco Vilorio 1st Auto (RC) #CPA-FV YankeesPASS
  • $15.952024 Bowman Chrome Francisco Vilorio Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-FV YankeesPASS
  • $16.642024 Bowman Chrome CPA-FV Francisco Vilorio 1st Bowman AutoPASS
  • —2024 Bowman Chrome Francisco Vilorio 1st Auto Yankees ProspectPASS
  • —2024 Bowman Chrome - Prospect 1st Auto Francisco Vilorio #CPA-FV (AU, RC)PASS
  • $52.392024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor 129/250 Francisco Vilorio Auto 0w3PASS
  • $26.522024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Francisco Vilorio #CPA-FV Auto 14mdPASS
  • $86.322024 Bowman Chrome Prospect HTA Choice Refractor Francisco Vilorio Auto 1k9tPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now