Deal Sniper

Elian Soto

CF · Low-A · 20.0y · #876 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

59 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

20 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is Elian Soto 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Elian Soto scores 59 out of 100 (#876 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 83% of the players there.

His core Bowman card has been selling at $8–13 off 1 confirmed sale.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: thin comp evidence — 1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +1.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 83% of the players there.

  • Contact: below average

    29.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Plate discipline: plus

    16.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 80% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    Rookie to Low-A.

  • Premium position

    CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    CF is a position the hobby pays up for.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Thin comp evidence

    1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-ES — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 8 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

$7.88–13.13midpoint $10.50

Model estimate· 1 salemost recent 2026-08-25 · 8 listed now

7 days
not enough sales
30 days
not enough sales
90 days
not enough sales

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-ES

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 8 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 261/499 Elian Soto #CPA-ES Auto 1k9t at $33.42, 414% over the $6.50 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

/499 at or under $6.50 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

20 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 20 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 14 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Elian Soto 1st On-Card Auto #CPA-ES Nationals Autograph

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 6d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $9.24

    modeled ~$17.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Elian Soto Nationals

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 223d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $12.97

    modeled ~$17.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Elian Soto Nationals

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 26d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $12.99

    modeled ~$17.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Elian Soto 1st Bowman Auto SGC 9.5 Auto 10 #CPA-ES Nationals

    base · SGC 9.5 · takes offers · listed 89d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $19.98

    no sold price

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Elian Soto Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto RC #CPA-ES (H1095) $6 MAX SHIP

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 2d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 51h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $21.60

    modeled ~$17.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Elian Soto RC Rookie AUTO PSA 9 MINT Signed⚾️🏆

    base · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 151d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $32.50

    modeled ~$80.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder2 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $9.24 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $33.42, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $33.42 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +262%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

11 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 530 hitters at Low-A

What he is good at

skills overall 51 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 530 hitters at Low-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    45

    below average · better than 31% at his level

    29.3% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    52

    average · better than 57% at his level

    .128 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    58

    plus · better than 80% at his level

    16.0% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    50

    average · better than 50% at his level

    16 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    55

    above average · better than 68% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .764 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    60

    plus · better than 83% at his level · context, not a skill

    +1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 55th percentile of the cohort, production at the 68th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 55 and his production sits at 68, a gap of -13. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 529 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 27th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.0 / 10

  • nothing stands out either way

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Low-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 530 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

150

AVG

.256

OBP

.380

SLG

.384

OPS

.764

better than 68%

HR

2

SB

4

BB%

16.0

K%

29.3

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .571 to .764 after moving up to Low-A. That is the shape of a breakout.

Moved up from Rookie to Low-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.571▲.764

Power

.125→.128

Walks

16.8%→16.0%

Strikeouts

33.0%▼29.3%

Last season, 179 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold for1 logged sale

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

Only 1 sale logged so far. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
  • 2026-08-25 — $10.50 · tracked disappearance — not a confirmed sale proof
The whole live market20 listed · 20 eBay-verified · 14 not shown above
Listings
20

20 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$9.24
Median ask
$32.96
Cheapest 1st auto
$9.24
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$41.49

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 14 cards

  • $35.992023 Bowman Draft Elian Soto RC Auto Chrome Prospect #CPAES PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $37.442023 BOWMAN DRAFT CHROME ELIAN SOTO WASHINGTON NATIONALS AUTO RC - SGC 10/9.5NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $41.492023 Bowman Draft Elian Soto Chrome Auto Refractor 1st Prospect #/499 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $205.942023 Bowman Draft Elian Soto 1st Chrome Green Lava Refractor Auto /99 - PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $299.992023 Bowman Draft Elian Soto Orange Wave #1/25 PSA 9 Auto 10 RC Bowman 1stNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Elian Soto 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-ES - Washington Nationals !NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Draft 1st Chrome Prospect Auto - Elian Soto Nationals GEM PSA 10 AbNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome ELIAN SOTO 1st Bowman AUTO #CPA-ESNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Elian Soto Nationals 1st AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2023 Bowman Chrome Elian Soto 1st Bowman RC Auto CPA-ES NationalsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Elian Soto 1st Bowman Auto SGC 10 Auto 10 #CPA-ES NationalsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Draft 1st Chrome Elian Soto Auto PSA 9 Washington NationalsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —ELIAN SOTO PSA 10 2023 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT 1ST HTA CHOICE REFRACTOR AUTO 90/150NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $33.422023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 261/499 Elian Soto #CPA-ES Auto 1k9tPASS

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now