Deal Sniper

Pavin Smith

1B · Triple-A · 30.0y · #4638 of 7,922 we rate

The player
LONG SHOT

33 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

21 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

We can't see what this costs all in, so there's nothing to judge yet.

Our take

Long-shot prospect, untested market.

Pavin Smith scores 33 out of 100 (#4638 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: plate discipline: plus-plus — 17.9% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 93% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: age for the level — -4.0y vs his level at Triple-A puts him younger than only 6% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.

The signal

  • Old for the level

    -4.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than only 6% of the players there.

  • Speed: below average

    5 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Plate discipline: plus-plus

    17.9% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 93% at his level.

  • Bat-first profile

    1B — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    1B sells at a discount at equal production; 30.0 is old for a prospect card.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Age for the level

    -4.0y vs his level at Triple-A puts him younger than only 6% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.

  • Corner-only profile

    1B carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /250 at $16.25 costs 0.97× base, and print run alone suggests 1.30×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

21 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 21 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 15 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2017 Bowman Chrome Pavin Smith Class of 2017 Refractor Auto /250 1st Year Qty

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 488d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $16.25

    no sold price

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2017 Bowman Draft - Chrome 1st Auto Pavin Smith #CDA-PS Refractor /499

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 256d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $16.35

    modeled ~$12.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Pavin Smith 2017 Bowman Draft Chrome Auto Diamondback BGS 9.5 GEM MINT Auto 10

    base · BGS 9.5 · takes offers · listed 152d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $19.99

    modeled ~$22.98

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2017 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 333/499 Pavin Smith #CDA-PS Auto 06z2

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 6d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $22.78

    modeled ~$12.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2017 Bowman Chrome Pavin Smith Auto Graded BGS 9.5 Gem Mint 10 Autograph #CDA-PS

    base · BGS 9.5 · takes offers · listed 122d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $22.98

    modeled ~$19.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2017 Bowman Draft Chrome Pavin Smith BLUE autograph BGS 9.5 auto grade 10 /150

    /150 · BGS 9.5 · listed 101d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $29.99

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Pavin Smith, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $8.13–$17.06, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $16.74, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $16.74 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $16.35, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $16.35 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -2%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $16.25, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $16.25 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -1%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Gold Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $218.77, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $218.77 live
    Scarcity
    50 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +1246%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

11 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 53 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 53 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    51

    average · better than 55% at his level

    22.0% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    48

    average · better than 41% at his level

    .131 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    65

    plus-plus · better than 93% at his level

    17.9% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    46

    below average · better than 35% at his level

    5 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    56

    above average · better than 71% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .839 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    34

    bottom of the scale · better than 6% at his level · context, not a skill

    -4.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 56th percentile of the cohort, production at the 71th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 56 and his production sits at 71, a gap of -15. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 25th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.7 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A
  • hitting well — 0.839 OPS in 123 PA (not ranked against his level)

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

123

AVG

.293

OBP

.415

SLG

.424

OPS

.839

better than 71%

HR

3

SB

1

BB%

17.9

K%

22.0

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market21 listed · 21 eBay-verified · 15 not shown above
Listings
21

21 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$16.25
Median ask
$22.98
Cheapest 1st auto
$16.25
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$16.25

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 15 cards

  • $34.902017 Bowman Draft Pavin Smith Auto Arizona Diamondbacks #BD-195 1st BowmanNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $42.032017 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 120/499 Pavin Smith BGS 9 MINT Auto n0cNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $54.682017 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Gold Refractor /50 Pavin Smith BGS 9.5 Auto m4hNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $62.732017 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Pavin Smith #CDA-PS BGS 9.5 GEM MINT Auto 1u0NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $218.772017 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Gold Refractor 13/50 Pavin Smith #CDA-PS Auto 4wfNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2017 Bowman Draft Pavin Smith Chrome Draft Pick 1st Auto Refractor /499NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2017 Bowman Chrome PAVIN SMITH 1st Prospect On Card Auto REFRACTOR /499 DbacksNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2017 Bowman Chrome Draft - PAVIN SMITH - Purple Auto RC #/250 - PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —PAVIN SMITH 2017 BOWMAN DRAFT CHROME DRAFT PICKS AUTO PROSPECT PSA 10 GEM MINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2017 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor Pavin Smith BGS 9.5 GEM MINT AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Pavin Smith 2017 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Autograph BGS 9.5/10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2017 Bowman Chrome 1st RC PAVIN SMITH BLUE Auto 91/150 PSA 10 Rookie Pop 4NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $16.742017 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Pavin Smith #CDA-PS Auto 4d3LOTTERY
  • $22.712017 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Pavin Smith #CDA-PS Auto 1u6LOTTERY
  • —Topps 2017 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Auto Rookie Pavin Smith CDA-PS DBacksNEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now