Deal Sniper

Julio Carreras

SS · Double-A · 26.0y · #4893 of 7,922 we rate

The player
LONG SHOT

30 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

44 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Something about this card rules it out no matter the price.

Our take

Long-shot prospect, untested market.

Julio Carreras scores 30 out of 100 (#4893 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: speed: above average — 23 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 60% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: age for the level — -2.0y vs his level at Double-A puts him younger than only 24% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.

The signal

  • Old for the level

    -2.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than only 24% of the players there.

  • Contact: below average

    28.2% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Speed: above average

    23 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 60% at his level.

  • Premium position

    SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    SS is a position the hobby pays up for; 26.0 is old for a prospect card.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Age for the level

    -2.0y vs his level at Double-A puts him younger than only 24% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 24 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 24 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 24 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 196/499 Julio Carreras #CPA-JCA Auto 2a9 at $15.01, 1416% over the $0.99 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

/499 at or under $0.99 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: not a core card.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

44 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 44 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 38 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Draft JULIO CARRERAS 1st non-auto Chrome REDS #BDC-30

    Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1686d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    $1.75

    no sold price

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Julio Carreras 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Rockies

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 368d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    $2.99

    modeled ~$8.25

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Julio Carreras #CPA-JCA 1st Bowman Auto Colorado Rockies

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 519d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    $2.99

    modeled ~$8.25

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Julio Carreras #CPA-JCA Prospect Auto Purple Refractor #/250

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 12d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $2.99

    modeled ~$10.00

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Julio Carreras #CPA-JCA 1st Auto Colorado Rockies

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 439d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $3.99

    modeled ~$8.25

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Baseball - 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-JCA Rockies - JULIO CARRERAS

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 71d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    $4.23

    modeled ~$8.25

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder7 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $2.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $2.99 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • MojoTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $13.06, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $13.06 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +337%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $12.71, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $12.71 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -3%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $8.67, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $8.67 live
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -32%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $2.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $2.99 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -66%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue Mojo /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $14.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $14.99 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +401%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $12.42, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $12.42 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -17%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

4 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 50 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 50 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    46

    below average · better than 35% at his level

    28.2% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    51

    average · better than 53% at his level

    .148 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    51

    average · better than 55% at his level

    10.7% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    53

    above average · better than 60% at his level

    23 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    47

    average · better than 39% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .675 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    43

    below average · better than 24% at his level · context, not a skill

    -2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 51th percentile of the cohort, production at the 39th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 51 and his production sits at 39, a gap of +12. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 70th percentile.

Will he get there?

Long shot 4.3 / 10

  • already at Double-A
  • old for Double-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

103

AVG

.216

OBP

.311

SLG

.364

OPS

.675

better than 39%

HR

3

SB

4

BB%

10.7

K%

28.2

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market44 listed · 44 eBay-verified · 38 not shown above
Listings
44

44 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$1.75
Median ask
$8.64
Cheapest 1st auto
$2.99
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$8.67

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 38 cards

  • $4.752021 BOWMAN CHROME JULIO CARRERAS CPA-JCA 1ST RC AUTO ROCKIES MCG 10PASS
  • $4.882021 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JCA Julio Carreras 1st Rookie Auto PASS
  • $4.952021 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JCA Julio Carreras 1st Auto RockiesPASS
  • $4.99Julio Carreras 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto RockiesPASS
  • $5.002021 Bowman Chrome Julio Carreras 1st Prospect Autograph Auto #CPA-JCA RockiesPASS
  • $5.622021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs 1st Bowman Julio Carreras Auto ColoradoPASS
  • $5.852021 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Julio Carreras Auto RCPASS
  • $6.742021 Bowman Chrome Julio Carreras 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-JCA MarinersPASS
  • $6.952021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Julio Carreras Rockies #CPA-ICAPASS
  • $8.25Julio Carreras 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Base Auto Rockies Prospect PASS
  • $8.602021 Julio Carreras Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto RC #CPA-JCA (H892)PASS
  • $8.672021 Bowman Chrome 1st Speckle Refractor Auto /299 Julio Carreras #CPA-JCAPASS
  • $8.952021 Bowman Chrome 1st #CPA-JCA Julio Carreras Auto Colorado RockiesPASS
  • $8.98Julio Carreras 2021 Bowman Chrome Prospects 1st Auto #CPA-JCA Rockies QTYPASS
  • $10.00JULIO CARRERAS 2021 Bowman Chrome AUTO AUTOGRAPH 1ST RC ROOKIE ! ROCKIES !PASS
  • $10.742021 Bowman Chrome Julio Carreras 1st Colorado Rockies BCP-161 Signed AutoPASS
  • $10.902020 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Julio Carreras Auto #CPA-JCA Colorado RockiesPASS
  • $12.422021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor /150 Julio Carreras #CPA-JCA Auto 3hdPASS
  • $12.712021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Julio Carreras #CPA-JCA Auto 1lq2PASS
  • $12.99Julio Carreras 2021 Bowman Chrome Auto 1st Bowman #CPA-JCA RockiesPASS
  • $13.062021 Bowman Chrome Julio Carreras 1st Mojo Colorado Rockies BCP-161 Signed AutoPASS
  • $14.992021 Bowman Chrome Julio Carreras 1st Blue Mojo Auto /150 #CPA-JCAPASS
  • $15.012021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 196/499 Julio Carreras #CPA-JCA Auto 2a9PASS
  • $16.162021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor 73/299 Julio Carreras Auto 2a9PASS
  • $16.162021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor 26/150 Julio Carreras Auto 05jaPASS
  • $16.172021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor 106/150 Julio Carreras Auto 19huPASS
  • $19.042021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Julio Carreras #CPA-JCA PSA 9 MINT Auto lz7PASS
  • $40.002021 Julio Carreras Bowman Chrome rc atomic refractor auto #ed /100 SGC 10-10PASS
  • —JULIO CARRERAS 2021 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST GREEN SAPPHIRE AUTO 08/99PASS
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Julio Carreras Auto #CPA-ARO Rockies 1st BowmanPASS
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Julio Carreras Auto Refractor 1st Prospect #/499 RockiesPASS
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Julio Carreras 1st Bowman Auto Sparkle #/299 RockiesPASS
  • —2021 BOWMAN CHROME PROSPECTS #CPA-JCA Julio Carreras Rockies RC 1st AutoPASS
  • —Julio Carreras 2021 Bowman 1st Chrome Auto CPA-JCA RockiesPASS
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Julio Carreras 1st Auto #CPA-JCA RockiesPASS
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Speckle Refractor Auto #CPA-JCA Julio Carreras /299 COLPASS
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Julio Carreras 1st Blue Mojo Refactor Auto /150 RockiesPASS
  • —Topps 2021 Bowman Chrome Julio Carreras RC Auto HTA Choice Refractor /150 PSA 9PASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now