Deal Sniper

Jefferson Rojas

SS · Double-A · 21.0y · #84 of 7,922 we rate

The player
STRONG PROSPECT

81 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

14 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait for a better price

Closest of his is 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Jefferson Rojas…. Priced above value.

Our take

Strong prospect, untested market.

Jefferson Rojas scores 81 out of 100 (#84 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.

  • Plate discipline: below average

    8.7% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • OPS slipping

    .871 last season to .819 this one.

  • Contact: plus

    16.2% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 90% at his level.

  • The case is strengthening

    Baseball momentum 69/100 — ahead of the thesis. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Moved up and held it

    High-A to Double-A.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is Jefferson Rojas 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto /150 True Blue Refractor at $339, 56% over the $218 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

/150 at or under $218 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Priced above value
  • Player not there yet
  • On his best-priced card: waiting on sales.

What is for sale right now

14 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 14 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 8 are under "The whole live market".

  • Jefferson Rojas 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto /150 True Blue Refractor

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 26d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    $339.00

    sold $218

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto JEFFERSON ROJAS Purple Refractor #/250

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 16d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $154.39

    modeled $24.70–76.70

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Jefferson Rojas Chrome Auto Purple /250 1st Prospect Chicago Cubs

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $166.99

    modeled $24.70–76.70

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Prospects On Card Auto Jefferson Rojas 1st Purple /250 Cubs

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 11d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $179.99

    modeled $24.70–76.70

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Jefferson Rojas 2023 Bowman Signed RC CGC AUTH w/ 10 AUTO Blue /150 1st Edition

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 9d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether the signature is factory-certified or added later

    $309.99

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Jefferson Rojas #CPA-JR Refractor Auto #371/499 PSA 10

    /499 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 128d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $355.99

    modeled ~$295.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Jefferson Rojas, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $77.19–$162.11, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder2 versions of his cards in psa 10 autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing PSA 10 autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $355.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $355.99 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $400.95, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $400.95 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +13%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

6 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 55 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 55 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    63

    plus · better than 90% at his level

    16.2% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    59

    plus · better than 82% at his level

    .211 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    46

    below average · better than 36% at his level

    8.7% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    52

    average · better than 59% at his level

    23 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    58

    plus · better than 79% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .819 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    69

    plus-plus · better than 97% at his level · context, not a skill

    +3.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 67th percentile of the cohort, production at the 79th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 67 and his production sits at 79, a gap of -12. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 29th percentile.

Will he get there?

Strong chance 7.1 / 10

  • already at Double-A
  • hitting well — 0.819 OPS in 470 PA (not ranked against his level)

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

470

AVG

.271

OBP

.337

SLG

.482

OPS

.819

better than 79%

HR

20

SB

18

BB%

8.7

K%

16.2

Is this player getting better?

Down from .871 to .819 OPS, but he moved up to Double-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.

Moved up from High-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.871▼.819

Power

.214→.211

Walks

12.7%▼8.7%

Strikeouts

15.7%→16.2%

Last season, 299 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market14 listed · 14 eBay-verified · 8 not shown above
Listings
14

14 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$154.39
Median ask
$309.99
Cheapest 1st auto
$154.39
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$154.39

Latest eBay verification: 6 hours ago.

The other 8 cards

  • $400.95Jefferson Rojas Bowman Chrome Refractor Auto Purple #/250 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Jefferson Rojas 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Refractor /499 PSA 10 Gem MetsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Jefferson Rojas 1st AUTO Green Shimmer /99 PSA 10 Cubs MetsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Jefferson Rojas 1st bowman Auto Green Grass Refractor /99 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Jefferson Rojas Speckle Refractor Auto /299 PSA 10 CubsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Jefferson Rojas 1st Refactor Auto /499 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Bowman 2023 Chrome Jefferson Rojas Auto Mojo Refractor PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Jefferson Rojas Cubs / Mets ProspectPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now