Deal Sniper

Diego Cartaya

C · Eugene Emeralds · High-A · 24.0y · #5567 of 7,922 we rate

The player
LONG SHOT

25 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

19 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2019 Bowman Diego Cartaya 1st Chrome RC…. Player not there yet.

Our take

Long-shot prospect, untested market.

Diego Cartaya scores 25 out of 100 (#5567 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: plate discipline: plus — 17.1% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 86% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 35 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Old for the level

    -1.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than only 30% of the players there.

  • Contact: bottom of the scale

    65.7% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Plate discipline: plus

    17.1% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 86% at his level.

  • Premium position

    C — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    C sells at a discount at equal production; 24.0 is old for a prospect card.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    35 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 27 on the 20–80 scale (65.7% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /150 at $22.90 costs 1.76× base, and print run alone suggests 1.50×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

19 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 19 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 13 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2019 Bowman Diego Cartaya 1st Chrome RC Sparkle Auto /299 PSA 10

    /299 · PSA 10 · listed 687d

    Player not there yet · 1 other thing in the way

    —

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2019 Bowman Chrome Diego Cartaya 1st Prospect Auto /100 BGS 9.5 10 Dodgers

    /100 · BGS 9.5 · takes offers · listed 25d

    Player not there yet · 1 other thing in the way

    —

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2019 Bowman Chrome Diego Cartaya 1st Auto #CPA-DCA PSA 10 GEM MINT

    base · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 48d

    Player not there yet · 1 other thing in the way

    $25.16

    modeled ~$40.25

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2019 Bowman Chrome Diego Cartaya 1st Auto Speckle Refractor /299 PSA 9 Dodgers

    /299 · PSA 9 · listed 29d

    Player not there yet · 1 other thing in the way

    —

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2019 Bowman - DIEGO CARTAYA - Chrome Prospect AUTO - PSA 10

    base · PSA 10 · listed 224d

    Not a core card · 2 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $17.99

    modeled ~$40.25

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2019 Bowman Chrome Auto Diego Cartaya Blue Refractor /150 PSA 9 #CPA-DCA Twins

    /150 · PSA 9 · listed 5d

    Not a core card · 2 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $22.90

    modeled ~$135.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in psa 10 autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing PSA 10 autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $17.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $17.99 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Speckle RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $92.64, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $92.64 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +415%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $36.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $36.98 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -60%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

11 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 45 on the 20–80 scale, against 492 hitters at High-A

What he is good at

skills overall 45 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 492 hitters at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    27

    bottom of the scale · better than 1% at his level

    65.7% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    47

    average · better than 37% at his level

    .107 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    61

    plus · better than 86% at his level

    17.1% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    43

    below average · better than 25% at his level

    0 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    38

    well below · better than 12% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .500 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    45

    below average · better than 30% at his level · context, not a skill

    -1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 37th percentile of the cohort, production at the 12th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 88% of the players he is measured against.

The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.

How this is read: his skills average 37 and his production sits at 12, a gap of +25. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 492 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 88th percentile.

Will he get there?

Long shot 3.4 / 10

  • old for High-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 492 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

35

AVG

.107

OBP

.286

SLG

.214

OPS

.500

better than 12%

HR

1

SB

0

BB%

17.1

K%

65.7

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market19 listed · 19 eBay-verified · 13 not shown above
Listings
19

19 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$12.99
Median ask
$35.85
Cheapest 1st auto
$25.16
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
—

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 13 cards

  • $24.702019 Bowman Chrome Auto Diego Cartaya Blue Refractor /150 PSA 9 #CPA-DCA TwinsLOTTERY
  • $31.502019 Bowman - DIEGO CARTAYA - Chrome Prospect AUTO - PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $32.982019 Bowman - DIEGO CARTAYA - Chrome Prospect AUTO - PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $36.982019 Bowman Chrome Diego Cartaya Refractor Auto /499 PSA 10 Gem Mint DodgersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $40.25Diego Cartaya 2019 Bowman Chrome Autograph PSA 10 Gem Mint Auto Rookie Card RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $92.642019 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor Diego Cartaya PSA 10 Auto 15mjNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $795.092019 Bowman Chrome Orange Refractor 16/25 Diego Cartaya BGS 9.5 Auto 11oqNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $5004.00Diego Cartaya 2022 Bowman Chrome Vibrations Auto Superfractor True 1/1 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $12.99Diego Cartaya 2019 Bowman Chrome Green Auto PSA 9LOTTERY
  • $63.892019 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor Diego Cartaya PSA 9 MINT Auto 07uiNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2019 BOWMAN CHROME DIEGO CARTAYA GIANTS AUTO ROOKIE RC PSA 9 MINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $41.842019 Bowman Chrome Prospect Baseball Auto Graded PSA Gem MT 10 Diego Cartaya NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $35.85Diego Cartaya 2022 Bowman Chrome Minnesota Twins PSA Authentic Auto BCP-103NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now