Deal Sniper

Gavin Lux

LF · Durham Bulls · Triple-A · 28.0y · #5764 of 7,922 we rate

The player
LONG SHOT

23 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

17 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Something about this card rules it out no matter the price.

Our take

Long-shot prospect, untested market.

Gavin Lux scores 23 out of 100 (#5764 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: plate discipline: plus-plus — 21.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 96% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: corner-only profile — lF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

The signal

  • Old for the level

    -2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than only 30% of the players there.

  • Power: well below

    .075 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Plate discipline: plus-plus

    21.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 96% at his level.

  • Bat-first profile

    LF — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    Little power for his level (17th percentile); 28.0 is old for a prospect card.

Why now

  • 4 new copies listed this week

    Fresh supply on this exact card. More choice, and more downward pressure.

What could go wrong

  • Corner-only profile

    LF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2016 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CDA-GL — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 4 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 4 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2016 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CDA-GL

Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto

The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 4 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

17 cards of his are listed, 1 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 16 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 10 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2016 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Gavin Lux Auto Los Angeles Dodgers #CDA-GL

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 12d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $11.98

    modeled ~$9.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2016 Bowman Draft Gavin Lux Chrome Auto Autograph 1st Prospect #CDA-GL Dodgers

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 17d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $12.00

    modeled ~$9.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2016 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Gavin Lux #CDA-GL Auto 4tr

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 6d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $16.17

    modeled ~$9.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2016 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Gavin Lux #CDA-GL Auto 1bi0

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $16.17

    modeled ~$9.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Gavin Lux AUTO /50 PSA 9 | BOWMAN CHROME SCOUTS TOP 100

    /50 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 94d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $25.99

    no sold price

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2016 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Gavin Lux #CDA-GL Auto READ xi6

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $33.99

    modeled ~$9.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder2 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $11.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $11.98 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $44.62, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $44.62 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +273%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

8 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 51 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    48

    average · better than 41% at his level

    24.4% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    40

    well below · better than 17% at his level

    .075 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    68

    plus-plus · better than 96% at his level

    21.0% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    49

    average · better than 46% at his level

    10 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    46

    below average · better than 34% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .685 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    45

    below average · better than 30% at his level · context, not a skill

    -2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 50th percentile of the cohort, production at the 34th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 50 and his production sits at 34, a gap of +16. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 72th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.2 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

119

AVG

.223

OBP

.387

SLG

.298

OPS

.685

better than 34%

HR

1

SB

2

BB%

21.0

K%

24.4

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market17 listed · 17 eBay-verified · 10 not shown above
Listings
17

17 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$11.98
Median ask
$25.99
Cheapest 1st auto
$11.98
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
—

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 10 cards

  • $36.00Gavin Lux 2017 Bowman Chrome Scouts Top 100 /50 BGS 9 Auto 10PASS
  • $44.622016 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 148/499 Gavin Lux #CDA-GL Auto READ xi6PASS
  • $153.582016 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Blue Wave Refractor Gavin Lux BGS 9.5 Auto 0rfPASS
  • —Gavin Lux Dodgers 2016 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto Autograph 1st Bowman RookiePASS
  • —2016 Bowman Draft Gavin Lux Chrome Auto Autograph 1st Prospect #CDA-GL DodgersPASS
  • —2016 Bowman Draft #CDA-GL Gavin Lux 1st Bowman Chrome Auto BGS 9.5 GEM MTPASS
  • —2016 Bowman Chrome Draft Gavin Lux Auto BGS 9.5/10 Dodgers RedsPASS
  • —GAVIN LUX /50 RC AUTO 2020 Bowman Chrome Topp 100 PSA 9 Dodgers RedsPASS
  • —2016 Bowman Draft #CDA-GL Gavin Lux 1st Bowman Chrome Auto BGS 9.5 GEM MTPASS
  • —2016 Bowman Chrome Gavin Lux Blue 1st Refractor Auto /150 Dodgers BGS 9 RookiePASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now