Deal Sniper

Ryan Reckley

SS · Rookie · 21.0y · #6164 of 7,922 we rate

The player
LONG SHOT

18 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

41 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2022 Bowman Chrome RYAN RECKLEY RC AUTO PSA… at $29.24. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Long-shot prospect, untested market.

Ryan Reckley scores 18 out of 100 (#6164 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: premium position — SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 79 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Old for the level

    -2.0y vs his level at Rookie — younger than only 23% of the players there.

  • Power: bottom of the scale

    .000 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Premium position

    SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    Little power for his level (6th percentile); SS is a position the hobby pays up for.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    79 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 39 on the 20–80 scale (31.6% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Age for the level

    -2.0y vs his level at Rookie puts him younger than only 23% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-RR — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 14 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 15 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-RR

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 14 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $2.99 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

41 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 41 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 35 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome RYAN RECKLEY RC AUTO PSA 10 GEM MINT 1st BOWMAN

    base · PSA 10 · listed 1307d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $29.24

    modeled ~$89.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome RYAN RECKLEY RC AUTO REFRACTOR #d 263/499 PSA 10 * 1st Bowman

    /499 · PSA 10 · listed 465d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $36.24

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Ryan Reckley #CPA-RR 1st Mojo Auto #d /150

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 174d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    —

    modeled ~$3.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • RYAN RECKLEY 2022 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST SPECKLE REFRACTOR RC AUTO 019/299 #RR

    /299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 385d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $13.99

    modeled ~$6.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • RYAN RECKLEY 2022 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST SPECKLE REFRACTOR RC AUTO /299

    /299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 145d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled ~$8.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Ryan Reckley 2022 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st Bowman Refractor Auto PSA 9 #BCP-163

    Refractor · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 654d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    —

    modeled ~$42.04

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder6 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $2.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $2.99 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $4.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $4.98 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +67%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $13.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $13.99 live
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +181%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue RayWave Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $13.75, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $13.75 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -2%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • HTA Choice Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $23.07, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $23.07 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +68%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Green Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $40.32, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $40.32 live
    Scarcity
    99 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +75%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

13 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 41 on the 20–80 scale, against 1087 hitters at Rookie

What he is good at

skills overall 41 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 1087 hitters at Rookie — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    39

    well below · better than 14% at his level

    31.6% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    34

    bottom of the scale · better than 6% at his level

    .000 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    45

    below average · better than 30% at his level

    12.7% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    45

    below average · better than 32% at his level

    15 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    38

    well below · better than 11% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .548 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    43

    below average · better than 23% at his level · context, not a skill

    -2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 21th percentile of the cohort, production at the 11th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 21 and his production sits at 11, a gap of +10. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 1,087 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 66th percentile.

Will he get there?

Long shot 3.1 / 10

  • old for Rookie

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 68% of what it wants to know — missing readiness, production.

How he is playingThe Rookie line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 1087 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

79

AVG

.215

OBP

.333

SLG

.215

OPS

.548

better than 11%

HR

0

SB

2

BB%

12.7

K%

31.6

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market41 listed · 41 eBay-verified · 35 not shown above
Listings
41

41 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$2.99
Median ask
$13.99
Cheapest 1st auto
$2.99
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$4.98

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 35 cards

  • —RYAN RECKLEY 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect 1st Bowman Auto Giants SGC 9 Prospects NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $4.982022 Bowman Chrome 1st Refractor Auto Ryan Reckley 431/499!!!LOTTERY
  • $13.99RYAN RECKLEY 2022 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST REFRACTOR RC AUTO 030/499 #CPA-RRLOTTERY
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Ryan Reckley #CPA-RR 1st Refractor Auto /499NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Prospects Ryan Reckley Auto Blue Recfractor /150 SGC 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —RYAN RECKLEY 2022 BOWMAN CHROME AUTO GOLD SHIMMER REFRACTOR /50 SGC 9 NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Ryan Reckley 2022 1st Bowman Chrome Blue Raywave Auto /150 GiantsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $2.992022 Bowman Chrome Ryan Reckley 1st Auto CPA-RRLOTTERY
  • $3.23Ryan Reckley 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Ryan Reckley #CPA-RR Bowman 1st RCLOTTERY
  • $4.482022 Bowman Chrome Baseball - 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-RR Giants - RYAN RECKLEYLOTTERY
  • $5.82Ryan Reckley 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Ryan Reckley #CPA-RR Bowman 1st RCLOTTERY
  • $6.322022 Bowman Chrome 1ST AUTO Ryan Reckley Auto San Francisco Giants #CPA-RRLOTTERY
  • $6.58Ryan Reckley 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Ryan Reckley #CPA-RR Bowman 1st RCLOTTERY
  • $6.852022 Bowman Chrome 1st Ryan Reckley On Card Auto San Francisco Giants CardLOTTERY
  • $7.64RYAN RECKLEY 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Rookie RC Autograph Auto #CPA-RRLOTTERY
  • $9.952022 Bowman Chrome #CPA-RR Ryan Reckley 1st Chrome Prospect AutoLOTTERY
  • $13.99RYAN RECKLEY 2022 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-RRLOTTERY
  • $40.322022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Green Refractor 6/99 Ryan Reckley #CPA-RR Auto 1r66NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Ryan Reckley 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Ryan Reckley #CPA-RR Bowman 1st 2NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Ryan Reckley 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Ryan Reckley #CPA-RR Bowman 1st 1NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Ryan Reckley Prospect Auto 1st #CPA-RR San Francisco GiantsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Ryan Reckley 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Ryan Reckley 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Ryan Reckley #CPA-RR Bowman 1st RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $13.752022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue RayWave Refractor /150 Ryan Reckley Auto pe8LOTTERY
  • $16.172022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue RayWave Refractor /150 Ryan Reckley Auto 10fhLOTTERY
  • $23.072022 Bowman Chrome Prospect HTA Choice Refractor 13/150 Ryan Reckley Auto 1j91LOTTERY
  • —Topps 2022 Bowman Chrome Ryan Reckley Giants Rookie Auto Purple Refractor /250NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $57.572022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor 85/299 Ryan Reckley Auto 10qeNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $27.082022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Ryan Reckley #CPA-RR PSA 9 MINT Auto 1tf2NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $36.49Ryan Reckley 2022 Bowman Chrome Auto CPA-RR Giants SGC 9 (CB)NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $38.362022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor Ryan Reckley PSA 9 MINT Auto 15wbNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $39.732022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Ryan Reckley #CPA-RR PSA 9 MINT Auto 1b8NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $42.042022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Atomic Refractor Ryan Reckley PSA 9 MINT Auto 15wbNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2022 Bowman Chrome Ryan Reckley Giants #CPA-RR Rookie Prospect Auto PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $20.96RYAN RECKLEY 2022 BOWMAN CHROME Refractor AUTO /499 SGC 9.5 Giants 1st CPA-RRLOTTERY
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now