Luis Arana
SS · Low-A · 18.0y · #587 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
63 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
33 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
We can't see what this costs all in, so there's nothing to judge yet.
Our take
Solid prospect, untested market.
Luis Arana scores 63 out of 100 (#587 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 100% of the players there.
His core Bowman card has been selling at $12–19 off 1 confirmed sale.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: thin comp evidence — 1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.
The signal
Young for the level
+3.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 100% of the players there.
Power: below average
.082 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
OPS slipping
.895 last season to .708 this one.
Power slipping
.179 last season to .082 this one.
Speed: plus
55 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 90% at his level.
Moved up and held it
Rookie to Low-A.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Thin comp evidence
1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2026 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-LA — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 6 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
$11.63–19.38midpoint $15.50
Evidence limited· 1 salemost recent 2026-08-25 · 6 listed now
- 7 days
- not enough sales
- 30 days
- not enough sales
- 90 days
- not enough sales
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2026 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-LA
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 6 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2026 Bowman Chrome 1st Luis Arana HTA Choice Mojo Refractor Auto /150 RC SP at $107, 138% over the $44.99 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
/150 at or under $44.99 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: evidence still thin.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
33 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 33 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 27 are under "The whole live market".
LUIS ARANA 2026 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTO TRUE BLACK /10 #BCP-72 MARLINS
/10 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 13d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled $20.93–81.38
PASS
Luis Arana 2026 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Orange Shimmer /25
/25 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 22d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled $20.93–81.38
PASS
2026 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Luis Arana Marlins Auto #CPA-LA
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $15.50
PASS
2026 Bowman Luis Arana 1st Chrome Prospect LogoFractor Auto /35 CPA-LA Marlins
/35 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 4d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled $16.74–65.10
PASS
2026 Bowman Luis Arana Chrome Auto Gold Shimmer Refractor 1st #/50 Marlins
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 24d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled $16.74–65.10
PASS
2026 Bowman Chrome Luis Arana 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-LA Gold Shimmer /50 Marlins
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 71d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled $16.74–65.10
PASS
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Luis Arana, just what the money can do today.
- Walker Jenkinsbase$67.98Watch
- Luke AdamsHTA Choice Refractor · /150$74.96Watch
- Rainiel Rodriguezbase$69.99Watch44% under fair value
Compared within $40.25–$84.53, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder9 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $331.57 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Blue RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $372.29, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $372.29 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +12%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $80.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $80.50 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -78%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - HTA Choice Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $106.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $106.99 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +33%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $126.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $126.49 live
- Scarcity
- 100 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +18%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $299.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $299.99 live
- Scarcity
- 89 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +137%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $335.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $335.00 live
- Scarcity
- 89 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +12%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Yellow /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $136.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $136.99 live
- Scarcity
- 75 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -59%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $358.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $358.00 live
- Scarcity
- 35 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +161%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
What he is good atSkills 55 on the 20–80 scale, against 530 hitters at Low-A
What he is good at
skills overall 55 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 530 hitters at Low-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
58
plus · better than 80% at his level
18.5% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
45
below average · better than 32% at his level
.082 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
53
above average · better than 62% at his level
13.3% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
63
plus · better than 90% at his level
55 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
51
average · better than 53% at his level · the result, not a skill
.708 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
80
elite · better than 100% at his level · context, not a skill
+3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 66th percentile of the cohort, production at the 53th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 66 and his production sits at 53, a gap of +13. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 529 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 71th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.0 / 10
- young for Low-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Low-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 530 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
249
AVG
.258
OBP
.368
SLG
.340
OPS
.708
better than 53%
HR
2
SB
23
BB%
13.3
K%
18.5
Is this player getting better?
Down from .895 to .708 OPS, but he moved up to Low-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.
Moved up from Rookie to Low-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.895▼.708
Power
.179▼.082
Walks
13.2%→13.3%
Strikeouts
7.9%▲18.5%
Last season, 227 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold for1 logged sale
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
Only 1 sale logged so far. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
- 2026-08-25 — $14.99 · tracked disappearance — not a confirmed sale proof
The whole live market33 listed · 33 eBay-verified · 27 not shown above
- Listings
- 33
- Lowest live
- $80.50
- Median ask
- $302.87
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $80.50
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $80.50
33 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 27 cards
- $136.992026 Bowman Chrome - Luis Arana #CPA-LA Marlins 1st Auto Yellow /75PASS
- $335.002026 Bowman Chrome Luis Arana 1st Bowman Packfractor Refractor Auto /89PASS
- —Luis Arana 2026 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Packfractor /89 Marlins #CPA-LAPASS
- $106.992026 Bowman Chrome 1st Luis Arana HTA Choice Mojo Refractor Auto /150 RC SPPASS
- $126.492026 Bowman Luis Arana 1st Chrome Auto Mini-Diamond Refractor /100 MarlinsPASS
- $305.752026 Bowman Luis Arana 1st Chrome Auto Mini-Diamond Refractor /100 MarlinsPASS
- —2026 1st Bowman Chrome Purple Refractor Luis Arana Auto /250 RC SP MarlinsPASS
- —LUIS ARANA 2026 BOWMAN CHROME BLUE SAPPHIRE 1ST AUTO 057/199PASS
- —2026 Bowman Luis Arana Chrome Auto Speckle Refractor 1st Prospect #/299 MarlinsPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Luis Arana Speckle Auto /299 1st #CPA-LA MarlinsPASS
- —Topps 2026 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Luis Arana Marlins Auto #CPA-LAPASS
- —2026 Bowman Chrome 1st Luis Arana Prospect Autograph Auto Marlins CPA-LAPASS
- —2026 Bowman Chrome 1st Luis Arana Auto #CPA-LAPASS
- $299.992026 Bowman 1st Luis Arana PACKFRACTOR AUTO #28/89 SSP Miami Marlins #CPA-LAPASS
- $358.002026 Bowman- Luis Arana 1st Bowman Prospect LogoFractor Auto /35 CPA-LA Marlins PASS
- —2026 Bowman Luis Arana #CPA-LA 1st Bowman Auto Yellow Refractor /75 MarlinsPASS
- —2026 Bowman Luis Arana 1st Bowman Green Grass Refractor On Card Auto /99 PASS
- —Luis Arana 2026 1st Bowman Auto Gold Shimmer /50 Au Rc Marlins (CPA-LA)PASS
- —Luis Arana 2026 1st Bowman Auto Gold Shimmer /50 Au Rc Marlins (CPA-LA)PASS
- —Topps Luis Arana Miami Marlins 2026 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto 1st #CPA-LAPASS
- —LUIS ARANA 2026 BOWMAN #CPA-LA CHROME AUTO 1ST PROSPECT MARLINSPASS
- —2025 Topps Chrome Bowman Luis Arana Auto Purple Refractor /250PASS
- —2026 Topps Bowman Marlins Luis Arana 1st Bowman True Green Auto /99PASS
- —2026 Bowman Luis Arana 1st Bowman LogoFractor Auto /35 - Marlins PASS
- $331.57Luis Arana 2026 Bowman 1ST Auto 4696PASS
- $372.29Luis Arana 2026 Bowman 1st Auto Blue X-Fractor 150 Marlins On-Card RefractorPASS
- $80.50LUIS ARANA /150 - 2026 Bowman - 1st Bowman HRA Choice Auto #CPA-LAPASS
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run