Deal Sniper

Felnin Celesten

SS · Double-A · 20.0y · #1532 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

54 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

24 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Chrome Felnin Celesten Auto 1st…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Felnin Celesten scores 54 out of 100 (#1532 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +4.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 99% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: swing-and-miss — contact grades 40 on the 20–80 scale (33.3% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +4.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 99% of the players there.

  • Contact: well below

    33.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • OPS slipping

    .733 last season to .538 this one.

  • Speed: above average

    34 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 77% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    Low-A to Double-A.

  • Premium position

    SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

Why now

  • Listed at your price — $84.20

    target is $86.40

What could go wrong

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 40 on the 20–80 scale (33.3% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Base$59.87delivered

2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Mega Box Purple Refractor Felnin Celesten Auto 1j2e — $59.87 delivered, 0% under the $60 that copies of this exact card have confirmed sold in.

See it on eBay

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

24 cards of his are listed, 1 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 23 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 17 are under "The whole live market".

  • Felnin Celesten 2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Green Mojo Refractor #37/99

    /99 · raw · condition not stated · listed 2d

    Not a core card · 2 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $84.20

    modeled $108

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome #CPA-FC Felnin Celesten 1st Bowman Prospect Auto PSA 9

    base · PSA 9 · listed 3d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $81.00

    modeled ~$30.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Felnin Celesten Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-FC Mariners PSA 10

    base · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 77d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $255.95

    modeled ~$127.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome FELNIN CELESTEN Auto PSA 10 RC Mariners Autograph 1st Bowman

    base · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 46d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $279.99

    modeled ~$127.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Felnin Celesten 2023 Bowman Chrome Prospect AUTO 1st #CPA-FC Mariners PSA 10 Gem

    base · PSA 10 · listed 223d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $280.90

    modeled ~$127.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Felnin Celesten 1st Prospect Auto Purple /250 CPA-FC PSA 9

    /250 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 62d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $281.08

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Felnin Celesten, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $29.93–$62.86, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in psa 10 autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing PSA 10 autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $255.95, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $255.95 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $550.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $550.00 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +115%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Gold Shimmer Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $1308.90, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $1308.90 live
    Scarcity
    50 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +138%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

11 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 46 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 46 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    40

    well below · better than 16% at his level

    33.3% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    45

    below average · better than 30% at his level

    .107 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    43

    below average · better than 23% at his level

    7.3% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    57

    above average · better than 77% at his level

    34 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    40

    well below · better than 15% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .538 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    73

    plus-plus · better than 99% at his level · context, not a skill

    +4.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 37th percentile of the cohort, production at the 15th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 83% of the players he is measured against.

The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.

How this is read: his skills average 37 and his production sits at 15, a gap of +22. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 83th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.2 / 10

  • already at Double-A
  • young for Double-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

123

AVG

.179

OBP

.252

SLG

.286

OPS

.538

better than 15%

HR

3

SB

7

BB%

7.3

K%

33.3

Is this player getting better?

Down from .733 to .538 OPS, but he moved up to Double-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.

Moved up from Low-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.733▼.538

Power

.099→.107

Walks

8.7%▼7.3%

Strikeouts

22.6%▲33.3%

Last season, 424 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market24 listed · 24 eBay-verified · 17 not shown above
Listings
24

24 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$59.87
Median ask
$279.99
Cheapest 1st auto
$81.00
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$281.08

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 17 cards

  • $299.99PSA 10 FELNIN CELESTEN AUTO 1st 2023 Bowman Chrome MARINERS Rookie RC GEM MINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $550.00FELNIN CELESTEN 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Refractor Auto /499 PSA 10 GEMNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $1308.902023 Bowman Chrome Felnin Celesten 1st Auto Gold Shimmer Refractor /50 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Felnin Celesten Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-FC Mariners PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Felnin Celesten Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-FC Mariners PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Felnin Celesten Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-FC Mariners PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome FELNIN CELESTEN Auto PSA 10 RC Mariners Autograph 1st BowmanNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Felnin Celesten Auto Purple Refractor 1st #/250 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Prospects Felnin Celesten 1st Auto PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Prospects Felnin Celesten 1st Auto PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman 1st Felnin Celesten Green Lava Auto /99 PSA 10!NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Felnin Celesten Auto Purple 1st Bowman #/250 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2024 Bowman Chrome Felnin Celesten Orange /25 RC Auto PSA 9 InscribedNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $59.872024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Mega Box Purple Refractor Felnin Celesten Auto 1j2ePASS
  • $279.992023 Bowman Chrome Felnin Celesten 1st Purple Prospect Refractor Auto #CPA-FC NMPASS
  • $95.98FELNIN CELESTEN 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st AUTO Card #CPA-FC MarinersPASS
  • $283.99Felnin Celesten Signed 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Shimmer #BCP-156 Beckett 10 AutoPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now