Riley Nelson
1B · High-A · 22.0y · #2830 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
46 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
66 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2026 Bowman Riley Nelson 1st Bowman Chrome…. Player not there yet.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Riley Nelson scores 46 out of 100 (#2830 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 74% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 34 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Young for the level
+1.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 74% of the players there.
Power: below average
.080 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
OPS slipping
.855 last season to .761 this one.
Power slipping
.158 last season to .080 this one.
Plate discipline: plus-plus
26.5% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 98% at his level.
Moved up and held it
Low-A to High-A, though the prior season is a thin sample.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
34 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Corner-only profile
1B carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-RN — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-RN
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is Riley Nelson 2026 Bowman 1st #CPA-RN Chrome Prospects Auto Cleveland Guardians at $19.99, 566% over the $2.45–4.25 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
That card at or under $2.45 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- Priced above value
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
66 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 66 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 60 are under "The whole live market".
2026 Bowman Riley Nelson 1st Bowman Auto Refractor /499 #CPA-RN PSA 10 POP 1
/499 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 61d
Not a core card · 2 other things in the way
$307.00
modeled ~$45.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2026 Bowman Chrome Riley Nelson Bowman LogoFractor 1st Prospect Auto 4/35 SP
/35 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 8d
Player not there yet · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$106.98
modeled $5.88–10.20
PASS
2026 Bowman Chrome Riley Nelson Auto True Gold Refractor 1st Prospect /50 RC
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d
Player not there yet · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $5.88–10.20
PASS
2026 1st Bowman Chrome Riley Nelson Yellow X-Fractor Auto /75 #CPA-RN
/75 · raw · condition not stated · listed 11d
Player not there yet · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $4.90–8.50
PASS
2026 Bowman Chrome Riley Nelson 1st #CPA-RN Auto Yellow /75 Guardians 1st bowman
/75 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 4d
Player not there yet · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $4.90–8.50
PASS
2025 1st Bowman Chrome Riley Nelson GREEN LAVA AUTO /99 & PURPLE GEOMETRIC /250
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 13d
Player not there yet · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$86.99
modeled $4.41–7.65
PASS
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder7 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $8.78, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $8.78 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $16.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $16.49 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +88%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $31.35, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $31.35 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +90%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Lava /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $86.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $86.99 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +178%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Lava Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $61.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $61.00 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -30%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $106.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $106.98 live
- Scarcity
- 35 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +75%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /5 and underTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $337.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $337.00 live
- Scarcity
- 5 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +215%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
1 listing sits in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 53 on the 20–80 scale, against 492 hitters at High-A
What he is good at
skills overall 53 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 492 hitters at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
56
above average · better than 73% at his level
20.6% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
42
below average · better than 22% at his level
.080 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
71
plus-plus · better than 98% at his level
26.5% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
43
below average · better than 25% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
54
above average · better than 65% at his level · the result, not a skill
.761 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
56
above average · better than 74% at his level · context, not a skill
+1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 55th percentile of the cohort, production at the 65th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 55 and his production sits at 65, a gap of -10. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 492 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 34th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.4 / 10
- old for High-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 492 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
34
AVG
.240
OBP
.441
SLG
.320
OPS
.761
better than 65%
HR
0
SB
0
BB%
26.5
K%
20.6
Is this player getting better?
Down from .855 to .761 OPS, but he moved up to High-A — a step back at a harder level is normal — but last season was a small sample, so go easy on it.
Moved up from Low-A to High-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.855▼.761
Power
.158▼.080
Walks
4.6%▲26.5%
Strikeouts
18.5%▲20.6%
Last season, 65 times at bat — a small enough sample that these gaps might just be luck. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market66 listed · 66 eBay-verified · 60 not shown above
- Listings
- 66
- Lowest seen
- $8.78
- Median ask
- $14.32
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $8.78
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $16.49
66 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 60 cards
- —Riley Nelson 2026 Bowman True Blue Chrome Refractor Auto /150 1st GuardiansPASS
- —2026 Bowman Chrome 1st - Riley Nelson Blue X-Fractor Auto /150 Guardians #CPA-RNPASS
- $31.352026 Bowman Chrome Riley Nelson Green Auto 16/99 1st BowmanPASS
- —Riley Nelson 2026 Bowman Chrome Mini-Diamond Refractor Auto /100 1st BowmanPASS
- $16.492026 Bowman Chrome Riley Nelson 1st Bowman Chrome Purple Refractor Auto /250 J1LOTTERY
- —2026 Bowman Riley Nelson Chrome Auto Speckle Refractor 1st #/299 GuardiansPASS
- —2026 Bowman Riley Nelson Chrome Auto Speckle Refractor 1st #/299 GuardiansPASS
- —Riley Nelson 2026 Bowman Chrome 1st AUTO refractor /499 CPA-RNPASS
- —2026 Bowman Chrome Riley Nelson 1st Bowman Auto Purple/250 Cleveland Guardians.PASS
- $61.00RILEY NELSON 2026 BOWMAN CHROME AUTO GREEN LAVA REFRACTOR 53/99 CLEVELANDPASS
- —🔥🥜2026 1st Bowman Riley Nelson Snack Pack Peanuts Auto 5/5 CPA-RN🔥PASS
- $337.002026 Bowman Baseball 1st Bowman Riley Nelson Popcorn Refractor Auto 3/5PASS
- —2026 Bowman Riley Nelson Auto Orange Wave Refractor 25/25 1st Prospect BookendPASS
- $8.782026 1st Bowman Riley Nelson #CPA-RN Chrome Auto - Cleveland GuardiansPASS
- $8.952026 BOWMAN CHROME RILEY NELSON 1ST AUTOGRAPH AUTO #CPA-RN GUARDIANSPASS
- $9.452026 Bowman Baseball 1st Chrome AUTO Riley Nelson Cleveland Guardians #CPA-RNPASS
- $9.992026 Bowman Riley Nelson 1st Chrome Auto #CPA-RN Cleveland Guardians ProspectPASS
- $10.242026 Bowman Riley Nelson 1st Chrome Base Prospect Auto CPA-RNPASS
- $10.962026 Bowman Riley Nelson #CPA-RN Chrome Auto 1st Prospect GuardiansPASS
- $11.242026 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Riley Nelson #CPA-RN GuardiansPASS
- $11.322026 Bowman Riley Nelson Chrome Auto #CPA-RN 1st Prospect Cleveland Guardians CAPASS
- $11.502026 Bowman Chrome Riley Nelson #CPA-RN 1st Bowman AutoPASS
- $11.79Topps Bowman 2026 Riley Nelson #CPA-RN Chrome Prospect Auto 1st GuardiansPASS
- $11.99Topps Bowman Chrome 2026 Riley Nelson 1st Bowman RC Auto CPA-RN GuardiansPASS
- $13.392026 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Autographs Riley Nelson Auto Cleveland GuardiansPASS
- $13.602026 Bowman Chrome #cpa-rn Riley Nelson 1st Auto GuardiansPASS
- $14.32RILEY NELSON 2026 BOWMAN CHROME PROSPECT AUTO CLEVELAND GUARDIANS #CPA-RN 1STPASS
- $14.992026 Bowman - Riley Nelson - Chrome On Card Auto #CPA-RN 1st Prospect GuardiansPASS
- $14.992026 Bowman Riley Nelson Chrome Auto Autograph 1st Prospect #CPA-RN GuardiansPASS
- $15.732026 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Riley Nelson #CPA-RN Guardians RCPASS
- $16.372026 Topps Bowman Chrome Riley Nelson Guardians 1st Bowman Auto RC #CPA-RNPASS
- $16.822026 Bowman Chrome Riley Nelson #CPA-RN 1st Auto GuardiansPASS
- $19.99Riley Nelson 2026 Bowman 1st #CPA-RN Chrome Prospects Auto Cleveland GuardiansPASS
- —Topps 2023 Bowman Chrome Riley Nelson 1st Bowman RC Prospect Auto #CPA-RNPASS
- —2026 Bowman Riley Nelson 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto #CPA-RN GuardiansPASS
- —2026 Bowman Riley Nelson #CPA-RN Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Cleveland GuardiansPASS
- —Topps 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Riley Nelson Guardians CPA-RNPASS
- —2026 Bowman RILEY NELSON 1st Bowman Auto Chrome 🔥 Cleveland Guardians #CPA-RNPASS
- —2026 Bowman Chrome Riley Nelson 1st Bowman Auto Guardians CPA-RNPASS
- —2026 Bowman Riley Nelson Chrome Auto #CPA-RN 1st Prospect Cleveland GuardiansPASS
- —Topps 2026 Bowman Chrome Riley Nelson 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-RN GuardiansPASS
- —2026 Bowman #CPA-RN Riley Nelson 1st Prospect Chrome Auto BJCKWPASS
- —2026 Bowman Chrome Prospect 1st Autograph Auto Riley Nelson #CPA-RN GuardiansPASS
- —Bowman 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Rookie Auto Riley Nelson Guardians #CPA-RNPASS
- —Riley Nelson 2026 Bowman Baseball - Chrome Prospect Auto 1st #CPA-RN ClevelandPASS
- —Riley Nelson 2026 Bowman Chrome Auto 1st Prospects On Card Autograph (#CPA-RN)PASS
- —Riley Nelson 2026 Bowman Chrome Auto 1st BowmanPASS
- —2026 Bowman Chrome Riley Nelson On Card Auto 1st Bowman #CPA-RNPASS
- —2026 Bowman Chrome - Riley Nelson - 1st Bowman On Card Auto - CPA-RN (RC)PASS
- —2026 Bowman Chrome - Riley Nelson - 1st Bowman On Card Auto - CPA-RN (RC)PASS
- —2026 Bowman Riley Nelson 1st Chrome Auto #CPA-RNPASS
- —Topps 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Riley Nelson RC Auto Guardians #CPA-RNPASS
- —2026 Bowman Chrome - Riley Nelson - 1st Bowman On Card Auto - CPA-RN (RC)PASS
- —2026 Bowman Riley Nelson 1st Chrome Auto #CPA-RNPASS
- —2026 Bowman Chrome Riley Nelson 1st Bowman AUTO Cleveland GuardiansPASS
- —Topps Bowman Chrome 2026 Riley Nelson 1st Bowman RC Auto CPA-RN GuardiansPASS
- —Riley Nelson 2026 Bowman Chrome Auto 1st Guardians On CardPASS
- —2026 Bowman Chrome Riley Nelson #CPA-RN 1st Auto GuardiansPASS
- —Riley Nelson 2026 Bowman Chrome Auto 1st GuardiansPASS
- —2026 Bowman Chrome Riley Nelson 1st Bowman Auto CPA-RN Cleveland GuardiansPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run