Deal Sniper

Ariel Armas

C · Double-A · 23.0y · #3040 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

44 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

25 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2024 Bowman Chrome ARIEL ARMAS 1st AUTO…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Ariel Armas scores 44 out of 100 (#3040 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 80% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +1.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 80% of the players there.

  • Power: below average

    .101 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • OPS slipping

    .672 last season to .639 this one.

  • Contact: above average

    21.2% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 71% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    High-A to Double-A.

  • Premium position

    C — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 3 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 3 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 3 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor 113/250 Ariel Armas Auto 1kn1 at $19.32, 142% over the $7.99 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

/250 at or under $7.99 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

25 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 25 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 19 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2024 Bowman Draft 1st Ariel Armas Auto Chrome Prospect Sparkle 9/71 Cubs #CPA-AA

    /71 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 209d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $324.85

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Chrome ARIEL ARMAS 1st AUTO Draft Refractor #'d /499 #CPA-AA

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 131d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled ~$11.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Draft Ariel Armas 1st Chrome Refractor Auto /499 #CPA-AA Cubs

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 539d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled ~$11.69

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Draft 1st Ariel Armas Auto Chrome Prospect Sparkle 3/71 Cubs #CPA-AA

    /71 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 214d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    —

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Draft CPA-AA Ariel Armas 1st Chrome Prospect Sparkle /71 Auto Cubs

    /71 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 278d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    —

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Draft CPA-AA Ariel Armas 1st Chrome Prospect Sparkle 19/71 Auto Cubs

    /71 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 284d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    —

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $8.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $8.99 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $19.32, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $19.32 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +115%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $32.27, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $32.27 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +67%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Sparkle /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $324.85, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $324.85 live
    Scarcity
    71 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +907%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
What he is good atSkills 49 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 49 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    56

    above average · better than 71% at his level

    21.2% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    44

    below average · better than 28% at his level

    .101 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    50

    average · better than 51% at his level

    10.2% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    46

    below average · better than 35% at his level

    10 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    45

    below average · better than 30% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .639 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    58

    plus · better than 80% at his level · context, not a skill

    +1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 46th percentile of the cohort, production at the 30th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 46 and his production sits at 30, a gap of +16. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 75th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.0 / 10

  • already at Double-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

373

AVG

.223

OBP

.315

SLG

.324

OPS

.639

better than 30%

HR

5

SB

6

BB%

10.2

K%

21.2

Is this player getting better?

Down from .672 to .639 OPS, but he moved up to Double-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.

Moved up from High-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.672▼.639

Power

.113→.101

Walks

10.0%→10.2%

Strikeouts

18.4%▲21.2%

Last season, 381 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market25 listed · 25 eBay-verified · 19 not shown above
Listings
25

25 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$8.99
Median ask
$12.23
Cheapest 1st auto
$9.90
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$324.85

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 19 cards

  • $9.902024 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Ariel Armas Base Auto Cubs ROOKIE RC Autograph C3NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $11.952024 Bowman Draft Ariel Armas Chrome Prospect Auto 1st #CPA-AANEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $12.502024 Bowman Draft Ariel Armas Chrome 1st Bowman Auto - CubsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $13.942024 Bowman Draft #CPA-AA Ariel Armas 1st Chrome Prospect AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $15.00ARIEL ARMAS 2024 Bowman Chrome AUTO AUTOGRAPH 1ST RC ROOKIE ! CHICAGO CUBS !NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Ariel Armas Base Auto Cubs ROOKIE RC Autograph C3NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman Draft Ariel Armas Chrome Prospect Auto 1st #CPA-AANEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman Chrome Ariel Armas Auto 1st CubsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman Draft Ariel Armas #CPA-AA Chrome Auto Chicago Cubs 1st BowmanNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Ariel Armas 2024 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Chicago CubsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Ariel Armas #CPA-AA Auto Chicago CubsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $32.272024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor 55/150 Ariel Armas Auto pe8NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Ariel Armas 2024 Bowman Draft #CPA-AA Chrome Prospect Auto 1st BNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Ariel Armas BDC-109 1st Refractor Auto CubsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $10.992024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Ariel Armas #CPA-AA Auto gb4NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $11.172024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Ariel Armas #CPA-AA Auto 19n6NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $11.272024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Ariel Armas #CPA-AA Auto 07jnNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $8.992024 Bowman Draft Ariel Armas AUTO Cubs 1stNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $19.322024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor 113/250 Ariel Armas Auto 1kn1PASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now