Deal Sniper

Derek Bernard

SS · High-A · 21.0y · #3108 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

43 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

12 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2024 Bowman Chrome Derek Bernard True Blue… at $21. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Derek Bernard scores 43 out of 100 (#3108 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 90% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 36 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +2.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 90% of the players there.

  • Power: well below

    .035 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • OPS slipping

    .833 last season to .416 this one.

  • Power slipping

    .146 last season to .035 this one.

  • Plate discipline: plus

    19.4% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 91% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    Low-A to High-A.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    36 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 41 on the 20–80 scale (33.3% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /150 at $21.00 costs 0.99× base, and print run alone suggests 1.50×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

12 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 12 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 6 are under "The whole live market".

  • Derek Bernard - 2024 Bowman Chrome Refractor Auto /499 1st Bowman

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 8d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $11.24

    modeled ~$12.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Chrome Derek Bernard Refractor Auto /499 Rockies 1st Prospect

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 6d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $13.48

    modeled ~$12.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Chrome Derek Bernard True Blue Refractor Auto /150 Rockies 1st

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 6d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $21.00

    modeled ~$49.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Chrome Derek Bernard True Blue Refractor Auto /150 Rockies 1st

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 6d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $21.00

    modeled ~$49.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Chrome Derek Bernard 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CPA-DB Colorado Rockies

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 76d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $21.25

    modeled ~$9.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor 94/299 Derek Bernard Auto ez6

    /299 · raw · condition not stated · listed 1d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $40.02

    modeled ~$12.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $21.25, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $21.25 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $11.24, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $11.24 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -47%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $40.02, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $40.02 live
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +256%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • True Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $21.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $21.00 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -48%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

3 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 50 on the 20–80 scale, against 492 hitters at High-A

What he is good at

skills overall 50 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 492 hitters at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    41

    well below · better than 18% at his level

    33.3% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    38

    well below · better than 11% at his level

    .035 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    63

    plus · better than 91% at his level

    19.4% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    56

    above average · better than 74% at his level

    33 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    35

    well below · better than 7% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .416 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    63

    plus · better than 90% at his level · context, not a skill

    +2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 49th percentile of the cohort, production at the 7th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 99% of the players he is measured against.

The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.

How this is read: his skills average 49 and his production sits at 7, a gap of +42. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 492 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 99th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.0 / 10

  • nothing stands out either way

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 492 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

36

AVG

.103

OBP

.278

SLG

.138

OPS

.416

better than 7%

HR

0

SB

2

BB%

19.4

K%

33.3

Is this player getting better?

Down from .833 to .416 OPS, but he moved up to High-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.

Moved up from Low-A to High-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.833▼.416

Power

.146▼.035

Walks

11.0%▲19.4%

Strikeouts

24.1%▲33.3%

Last season, 290 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market12 listed · 12 eBay-verified · 6 not shown above
Listings
12

12 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$11.24
Median ask
$21.25
Cheapest 1st auto
$11.24
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$11.24

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 6 cards

  • $41.332024 Bowman Chrome Derek Bernard Prospect AU-BLUE RAYWAVE Auto /150 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $46.072024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 85/499 Derek Bernard #CPA-DB Auto 1k9tNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $306.002024 Bowman Chrome 1st #CPA-DB Derek Bernard Auto 38/50 SGC 9.5 Auto 10 Pop 1NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Derek Bernard 2024 1st Bowman Chrome Refractor Auto /499 #CPA-D8 RockiesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —DEREK BERNARD 2024 BOWMAN CHROME #CPA-DB REPTILIAN BLUE REFRACTOR /150 1ST AUTONEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2024 Bowman Chrome Derek Bernard RC Auto Speckle /299 #CPA-DB PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now