Deal Sniper

Elly De La Cruz

SS · Louisville Bats · Triple-A · 24.0y · #343 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

68 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Below market

His best base card asks $21.17 against the $377 that card has sold in.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2026 1st Bowman-Chrome Auto Seojun Moon… at $21.17. Evidence still thin.

Our take

Solid prospect, and the market has not caught up.

Elly De La Cruz scores 68 out of 100 (#343 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

A prospect we rate, and cards of his asking less than they have been selling for — but none of them has cleared our own bar yet. What would change that is spelled out below.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 9 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.

  • Contact: well below

    33.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Power: plus-plus

    .375 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 98% at his level.

  • Premium position

    SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    Big power for his level (98th percentile); SS is a position the hobby pays up for.

Why now

  • Listed at your price — $21.17

    target is $301.60

  • Listed at your price — $290.00

    target is $292.18

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    9 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 38 on the 20–80 scale (33.3% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Base$21.17delivered

2026 1st Bowman-Chrome Auto Seojun Moon #CPA-MS, 2026 Topps Elly De La Cruz #150 — $21.17 delivered, 94% under the $377 that copies of this exact card have confirmed sold in.

See it on eBay

What would make this a buy

  • Evidence still thin
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

19 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 19 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 13 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2026 1st Bowman-Chrome Auto Seojun Moon #CPA-MS, 2026 Topps Elly De La Cruz #150

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 6d

    Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $21.17

    sold $377

    LOTTERY · 94% under

    eBayBreakdown

  • Elly De La Cruz Signed 1st Bowman Chrome Rookie Card BCP50 Beckett Auto Reds

    Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1080d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    $306.98

    sold $377

    PASS · 19% under

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Elly De La Cruz 1st Bowman Rookie Prospect Auto

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 67d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    $290.00

    sold $377

    PASS · 23% under

    eBayBreakdown

  • Elly De La Cruz 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st #BCP50 RC Signed Auto BGS BECKETT Reds

    Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1136d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $287.98

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Elly De La Cruz 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st #BCP50 RC Signed Auto BGS 10 Reds

    Red · BGS 10 · takes offers · listed 1136d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $357.98

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • ELLY De La CRUZ 2022 Bowman Chrome Mega Box PSA 10 Mojo Refractor Autograph Auto

    Mojo Refractor · PSA 10 · listed 2d

    Not a core card · 2 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $411.99

    modeled ~$85.25

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Elly De La Cruz, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $10.59–$22.23, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 59 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder2 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $21.17, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $21.17 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • RedTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $306.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $306.98 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +1350%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

14 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 51 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    38

    well below · better than 12% at his level

    33.3% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    71

    plus-plus · better than 98% at his level

    .375 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    51

    average · better than 54% at his level

    11.1% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    44

    below average · better than 29% at his level

    0 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    62

    plus · better than 89% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .958 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    61

    plus · better than 87% at his level · context, not a skill

    +2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 48th percentile of the cohort, production at the 89th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 97% of the players he is measured against.

The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.

How this is read: his skills average 48 and his production sits at 89, a gap of -41. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 3th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.3 / 10

  • already at Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

9

AVG

.250

OBP

.333

SLG

.625

OPS

.958

better than 89%

HR

1

SB

0

BB%

11.1

K%

33.3

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market19 listed · 19 eBay-verified · 13 not shown above
Listings
19

19 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$21.17
Median ask
$411.99
Cheapest 1st auto
$21.17
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$1599.95

Latest eBay verification: 44 minutes ago.

The other 13 cards

  • $466.252024 Bowman Chrome Elly De La Cruz #CRAED Blue Refractor /150 PSA 9 AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $1213.752022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Elly De La Cruz #CPAED PSA 10 AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $1599.952022 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Refractor Elly De La Cruz Auto #72/499 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $2205.952022 BOWMAN CHROME ELLY DE LA CRUZ 1ST BOWMAN AUTO AUTOGRAPH PSA 10 GEM MINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $149999.99ELLY DE LA CRUZ AUTO 2024 Bowman Chrome SUPERFRACTOR VARIATION REFRACTOR RC PSANEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $149999.99ELLY DE LA CRUZ AUTO 2024 Bowman Chrome SUPERFRACTOR REFRACTOR#/1 REDS RC PSA AUNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —ELLY DE LA CRUZ 2022 Bowman 1st CHROME AUTO Refractor /499 Reds RC Autograph📈🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Auto Refractor Elly De La Cruz Rookie RC BGS 9.5 /499NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Elly De La Cruz 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Blue Auto Authentic PSA Auto 10 PAEC10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Elly De La Cruz 1st Bowman Rookie Prospect Auto BGS 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Elly De La Cruz Mega Box Blue AUTO PSA 9 RefractorNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Elly De La Cruz rc auto FULL NAME AUTO 2022 1st Bowman BP-50 BECKETT REDSPASS
  • $296.88Elly De La Cruz 2022 1st Bowman #BP50 (RC) Rookie PSA Authentic Auto GEM MT 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now