Deal Sniper

Michael Arroyo

SS · Triple-A · 21.0y · #75 of 7,922 we rate

The player
STRONG PROSPECT

81 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

26 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Michael Arroyo #CPA-MA Chrome… at $156. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Strong prospect, untested market.

Michael Arroyo scores 81 out of 100 (#75 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +5.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 100% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +5.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 100% of the players there.

  • Plate discipline: below average

    7.7% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • OPS slipping

    .934 last season to .813 this one.

  • Power slipping

    .243 last season to .202 this one.

  • Contact: plus

    17.0% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 78% at his level.

  • The case is strengthening

    Baseball momentum 81/100 — ahead of the thesis. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 6 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2023 Bowman | Michael Arroyo | 1st Bowman Chrome Refractor Auto /499 | Mariners at $115, 66% over the $69.52 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

/499 at or under $69.52 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

26 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 26 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 20 are under "The whole live market".

  • Michael Arroyo 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto RC Yellow Refractor /75 - PSA 9 Mint

    /75 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 190d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    —

    modeled $190

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Michael Arroyo Auto /499 PSA 9

    /499 · PSA 9 · listed 2d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $106.98

    modeled $109

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Michael Arroyo 1st Green Shimmer Auto /99 PSA 9 #CPA-MA

    /99 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 190d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    $256.00

    modeled $171

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Michael Arroyo 1st True Green Auto /99 PSA 9 Mariners #CPA-MA

    /99 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 144d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    $281.00

    modeled $171

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Michael Arroyo 1st True Green Auto /99 PSA 9 Mariners #CPA-MA

    /99 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 237d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    $281.00

    modeled $171

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman | Michael Arroyo | 1st Bowman Chrome Refractor Auto /499 | Mariners

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 1d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    $115.48

    sold $69.52

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Michael Arroyo, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $10.62–$22.30, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $21.24, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $21.24 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $115.48, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $115.48 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +444%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $131.74, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $131.74 live
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +14%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $155.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $155.98 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +18%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

11 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 51 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    58

    plus · better than 78% at his level

    17.0% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    56

    above average · better than 74% at his level

    .202 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    43

    below average · better than 23% at his level

    7.7% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    47

    average · better than 39% at his level

    7 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    54

    above average · better than 66% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .813 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    80

    elite · better than 100% at his level · context, not a skill

    +5.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 54th percentile of the cohort, production at the 66th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 54 and his production sits at 66, a gap of -12. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 30th percentile.

Will he get there?

About as likely as prospects get 8.6 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • young for Triple-A
  • form is climbing

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

182

AVG

.270

OBP

.341

SLG

.472

OPS

.813

better than 66%

HR

7

SB

2

BB%

7.7

K%

17.0

Is this player getting better?

Down from .934 to .813 OPS, but he moved up to Triple-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.

Moved up from High-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.934▼.813

Power

.243▼.202

Walks

12.7%▼7.7%

Strikeouts

21.2%▼17.0%

Last season, 306 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market26 listed · 26 eBay-verified · 20 not shown above
Listings
26

26 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$21.24
Median ask
$131.74
Cheapest 1st auto
$21.24
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$115.48

Latest eBay verification: 12 hours ago.

The other 20 cards

  • $255.992023 BOWMAN CHROME PROSPECT AUTOS GREEN SHIMMER MICHAEL ARROYO 27/99 PSA 9 AUTOPASS
  • $21.24Michael Arroyo Seattle Mariners Auto Signed 2023 1st Bowman Chrome .LOTTERY
  • $21.24Michael Arroyo Seattle Mariners Auto Signed 2023 1st Bowman Chrome .LOTTERY
  • $21.24Michael Arroyo Seattle Mariners Auto Signed 2023 1st Bowman Chrome .LOTTERY
  • $35.94Michael Arroyo Mariners Auto Signed 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Beckett HologramNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $35.94Michael Arroyo Mariners Auto Signed 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Beckett Holo .NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $35.94Michael Arroyo Mariners Auto Signed 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Beckett Holo -NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $131.74Michael Arroyo 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Speckle Refractor Auto /299 #CPA-MANEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $155.982023 Bowman Michael Arroyo #CPA-MA Chrome Auto Purple Refractor /250 1stNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $250.00Michael Arroyo 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Speckle Refractor Auto /299 #CPA-MANEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $335.98Michael Arroyo 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Sapphire Auto #BSPAMA - PSA 10 Gem MintNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $708.902023 Bowman Chrome 1st Michael Arroyo Auto Atomic Refractor /100 PSA 10 RookieNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome MICHAEL ARROYO speckle refractor auto - /299 - RC - 1stNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Michael Arroyo 1st Bowman Chrome Auto True Gold /50 PSA 10 Gem MarinersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Michael Arroyo 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Refractor /499 PSA 10 Gem MarinersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Michael Arroyo Purple Refractor Auto/250 #CPA-MANEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Michael Arroyo Sapphire Auto /99NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Michael Arroyo 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Purple /250 PSA 10 Gem MarinersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2023 Bowman Chrome Michael Arroyo 1st RC Auto /150 #CPA-MA MarinersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Michael Arroyo Blue Lunar Refractor /150 1st Auto Color MatchNEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now