Deal Sniper

A.J. Vukovich

CF · Triple-A · 25.0y · #1001 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

58 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

13 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

A.J. Vukovich scores 58 out of 100 (#1001 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 74% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +1.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 74% of the players there.

  • Plate discipline: below average

    7.2% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Power: plus

    .229 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 81% at his level.

  • Premium position

    CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    CF is a position the hobby pays up for; 25.0 is old for a prospect card.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2020 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2020 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $9.99 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

13 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 13 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 7 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2020 Bowman Chrome Draft AUTO CDA-AV A.J. VUKOVICH 1st

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 12d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 55h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $9.99

    modeled ~$9.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2020 Bowman Chrome AJ Vukovich Auto 1st Bowman RC #CDA-AV

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 18d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 55h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $11.36

    modeled ~$9.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Picks AJ Vukovich #CDA-AV Auto tx9

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $28.82

    modeled ~$9.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2020 (1ST) Bowman Chrome Draft AJ VUKOVICH Auto REFRACTOR Rookie RC #’D/499

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 55h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $30.24

    modeled ~$11.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Picks Refractor 348/499 AJ Vukovich #CDA-AV Auto 01mg

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $38.88

    modeled ~$11.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Picks Refractor 24/499 AJ Vukovich #CDA-AV Auto 0rx7

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 1d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $40.03

    modeled ~$11.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $9.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $9.99 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $30.24, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $30.24 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +203%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $103.28, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $103.28 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +242%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Green Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $96.38, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $96.38 live
    Scarcity
    99 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -7%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

4 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 48 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 48 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    47

    average · better than 40% at his level

    24.9% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    59

    plus · better than 81% at his level

    .229 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    42

    below average · better than 20% at his level

    7.2% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    44

    below average · better than 29% at his level

    0 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    57

    above average · better than 75% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .855 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    56

    above average · better than 74% at his level · context, not a skill

    +1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 43th percentile of the cohort, production at the 75th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 93% of the players he is measured against.

The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.

How this is read: his skills average 43 and his production sits at 75, a gap of -32. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 7th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.5 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A
  • hitting well — 0.855 OPS in 181 PA (not ranked against his level)

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

181

AVG

.283

OBP

.343

SLG

.512

OPS

.855

better than 75%

HR

9

SB

0

BB%

7.2

K%

24.9

Is this player getting better?

About the same as last season — .853 to .855 OPS.

Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.853→.855

Power

.214▲.229

Walks

9.7%▼7.2%

Strikeouts

27.1%▼24.9%

Last season, 476 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market13 listed · 13 eBay-verified · 7 not shown above
Listings
13

13 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$9.99
Median ask
$38.88
Cheapest 1st auto
$9.99
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$30.24

Latest eBay verification: 12 hours ago.

The other 7 cards

  • $55.99AJ Vukovich 2020 Bowman Chrome Draft Blue Refractor PSA 10 1st Auto /150 RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $96.382020 Bowman Draft Chrome Picks Green Refractor 22/99 AJ Vukovich Auto 6fsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $103.282020 Bowman Draft Chrome Picks Blue Refractor /150 AJ Vukovich #CDA-AV Auto 6fsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —AJ Vukovich Signed 2020 Bowman Chrome 1st #BD-150 Arizona Diamondbacks AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2020 Bowman Chrome Draft AJ Vukovich #CDA-AV ON CARD AUTO RC ROOKIE SGC 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —PSA 10 AJ Vukovich 2020 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto RC Blue Refractor /150NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —AJ Vukovich 2020 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st Refractor /499 SGC 10/10 Auto Dbacks ⭐️NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now