Deal Sniper

Ivan Luciano

C · High-A · 19.0y · #37 of 7,922 we rate

The player
STRONG PROSPECT

84 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

24 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait for a better price

Closest of his is 2024 Bowman Chrome #CPA-IL Ivan Luciano 1st… at $7.94. Needs a $4 drop.

Our take

Strong prospect, untested market.

Ivan Luciano scores 84 out of 100 (#37 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +4.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 99% of the players there.

His core Bowman card has been selling at $1–2 off 1 confirmed sale.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 34 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +4.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 99% of the players there.

  • Speed: below average

    0 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Power: plus-plus

    .260 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 93% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    Rookie to High-A.

  • Premium position

    C — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Contact: above average

    20.6% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 73% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    34 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-IL — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 5 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

$0.97–1.61midpoint $1.29

Evidence limited· 1 salemost recent 2026-08-21 · 6 listed now

7 days
not enough sales
30 days
not enough sales
90 days
not enough sales

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-IL

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 5 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Ivan Luciano 1st Chrome Auto at $21.10, 252% over the $1.29–5.99 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

That card at or under $1.29 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Needs a $4 drop
  • Player not there yet
  • 2024 Bowman Chrome #CPA-IL Ivan Luciano 1st… at or under $4.79 delivered.
  • On his best-priced card: waiting on sales.

What is for sale right now

24 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 24 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 18 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2024 Bowman Draft Ivan Luciano Chrome Auto 1st Prospect Diamondbacks

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 211d

    Priced above value · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    sold $1.29–5.99

    PASS · 8% under

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Draft Ivan Luciano Chrome Auto 1st #CPA-IL Diamondbacks

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 369d

    Priced above value · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    sold $1.29–5.99

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Chrome 1st Bowman Ivan Luciano Gold Wave Refractor /50 Auto #CPA-IL Rookie

    /50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    $132.00

    modeled $1.39–5.42

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Ivan Luciano 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect 1st True Blue Auto Refractor /150

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 358d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    $264.25

    modeled $0.87–3.39

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • ⚾ Ivan Luciano 2024 Bowman Draft 1st Bowman Chrome Auto PSA 9 Diamondbacks

    base · PSA 9 · listed 41d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $41.00

    modeled ~$99.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Draft - Chrome Prospect Auto Ivan Luciano #CPA-IL Blue Wave PSA 10

    Blue Wave · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 7d

    Not a core card · 2 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    —

    modeled ~$165.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $7.94, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $7.94 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $19.04, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $19.04 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +140%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • True Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $264.25, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $264.25 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +1288%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Sparkle Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $326.85, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $326.85 live
    Scarcity
    71 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +24%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Gold Wave Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $132.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $132.00 live
    Scarcity
    50 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -60%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

2 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 55 on the 20–80 scale, against 492 hitters at High-A

What he is good at

skills overall 55 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 492 hitters at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    56

    above average · better than 73% at his level

    20.6% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    65

    plus-plus · better than 93% at his level

    .260 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    56

    above average · better than 74% at his level

    14.7% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    43

    below average · better than 25% at his level

    0 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    71

    plus-plus · better than 98% at his level · the result, not a skill

    1.048 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    73

    plus-plus · better than 99% at his level · context, not a skill

    +4.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 66th percentile of the cohort, production at the 98th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 93% of the players he is measured against.

The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.

How this is read: his skills average 66 and his production sits at 98, a gap of -32. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 492 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 7th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.7 / 10

  • young for High-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 492 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

34

AVG

.333

OBP

.455

SLG

.593

OPS

1.048

better than 98%

HR

1

SB

0

BB%

14.7

K%

20.6

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .780 to 1.048 after moving up to High-A. That is the shape of a breakout.

Moved up from Rookie to High-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.780▲1.048

Power

.107▲.260

Walks

16.9%▼14.7%

Strikeouts

18.7%▲20.6%

Last season, 166 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market24 listed · 24 eBay-verified · 18 not shown above
Listings
24

24 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$7.94
Median ask
$16.39
Cheapest 1st auto
$7.94
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$132.00

Latest eBay verification: 12 hours ago.

The other 18 cards

  • —Ivan Luciano Bowman 1st Auto /499 chromePASS
  • $326.852024 Bowman Draft Ivan Luciano 1st Sparkle Refractor Auto #/71 Dbacks #CPA-ILPASS
  • $19.042024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Ivan Luciano #CPA-IL Auto 0nj8LOTTERY
  • $23.642024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Ivan Luciano #CPA-IL Auto 1k9tLOTTERY
  • —2024 Bowman Ivan Luciano 1st Bowman Auto Red Checker /5PASS
  • $7.942024 Bowman Chrome #CPA-IL Ivan Luciano 1st Prospect AutoPASS
  • $8.312024 Bowman Draft Ivan Luciano #CPA-IL Chrome Auto 1st Prospect DiamondbacksPASS
  • $8.44IVAN LUCIANO 2024 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTOGRAPH BASEBALL DBACKS AUTOPASS
  • $9.992024 Bowman Draft #CPA-IL Ivan Luciano 1st Prospect Chrome AutoPASS
  • $11.09Ivan Luciano 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Auto CPA-IL Diamondbacks 1stPASS
  • $13.99IVAN LUCIANO 2024 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-ILPASS
  • $13.99IVAN LUCIANO 2024 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-ILPASS
  • $16.392024 Topps Bowman 1st Bowman Ivan Luciano Chrome Auto #CPA-IL DiamondbacksPASS
  • $21.102024 Bowman Draft Chrome Ivan Luciano 1st Chrome AutoPASS
  • —Topps 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Ivan Luciano CPA-IL DBacksPASS
  • —2024 Bowman Draft - Chrome Prospect 1st Auto Ivan Luciano #CPA-IL (AU, RC)PASS
  • —Ivan Luciano 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-IL DiamondbacksPASS
  • —2024 Bowman Draft #CPA-IL Ivan Luciano 1st Prospect Chrome AutoPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now