Deal Sniper

Carlos Rodríguez

RF · Triple-A · 25.0y · #2208 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

48 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

25 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Carlos Rodríguez scores 48 out of 100 (#2208 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 74% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: corner-only profile — rF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +1.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 74% of the players there.

  • Plate discipline: below average

    9.4% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Contact: plus-plus

    10.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 94% at his level.

  • Bat-first profile

    RF — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.

  • Speed: above average

    22 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 71% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Corner-only profile

    RF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $4.44 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

25 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 25 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 19 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2021 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Carlos Rodriguez #CPA-CR

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 213d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    $4.44

    modeled ~$8.89

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Carlos Rodriguez 1st Prospect Auto Autograph #CPA-CR Brewers

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 243d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $5.38

    modeled ~$8.89

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Carlos Rodriguez 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO PURPLE REFRACTOR 059/250 RC z11

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $8.41

    modeled ~$19.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Carlos Rodriguez 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO PURPLE REFRACTOR 059/250 RC z11

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 12d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 89h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $8.42

    modeled ~$19.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • CARLOS RODRIGUEZ 2023 Bowman Chrome SPECKLE REFRACTOR ~ 1st RC AUTO /299

    /299 · raw · condition not stated · listed 7d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $13.29

    modeled ~$12.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • CARLOS RODRIGUEZ 2021 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-CR

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 425d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $13.99

    modeled ~$8.89

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $4.44, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $4.44 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $15.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $15.99 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +260%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $13.29, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $13.29 live
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -17%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $8.41, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $8.41 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -37%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Orange Wave Refractor /25 and underTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $34.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $34.98 live
    Scarcity
    25 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +316%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
What he is good atSkills 54 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 54 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    66

    plus-plus · better than 94% at his level

    10.3% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    46

    below average · better than 33% at his level

    .116 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    46

    below average · better than 36% at his level

    9.4% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    56

    above average · better than 71% at his level

    22 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    52

    average · better than 59% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .784 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    56

    above average · better than 74% at his level · context, not a skill

    +1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 59th percentile of the cohort, production at the 59th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 59 and his production sits at 59, a gap of 0. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 46th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.1 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

446

AVG

.303

OBP

.365

SLG

.419

OPS

.784

better than 59%

HR

6

SB

16

BB%

9.4

K%

10.3

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season — .640 up to .784 OPS.

Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.640▲.784

Power

.076▲.116

Walks

9.2%→9.4%

Strikeouts

12.8%▼10.3%

Last season, 533 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market25 listed · 25 eBay-verified · 19 not shown above
Listings
25

25 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$4.44
Median ask
$15.99
Cheapest 1st auto
$4.44
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$8.41

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 19 cards

  • $14.742021 Bowman Chrome Carlos Rodriguez RC 1st Bowman Autograph Auto BrewersLOTTERY
  • $15.002023 Bowman Chrome Carlos Rodriguez 1st Auto /299 Speckle RefractorLOTTERY
  • $15.992023 Bowman Chrome Carlos Rodriguez 1st Bowman Refractor Auto /499 #CPA-CRLOTTERY
  • $15.992023 Bowman Chrome Carlos Rodriguez 1st Bowman Refractor Auto /499 #CPA-CRLOTTERY
  • $19.182021 BOWMAN CHROME CARLOS RODRIGUEZ 1ST BOWMAN AUTO #CPA-CR BREWERS A1LOTTERY
  • $19.622023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Carlos Rodriguez #CPA-CR Auto 11biLOTTERY
  • $21.922023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor 248/299 Carlos Rodriguez Auto 1d0hLOTTERY
  • $21.922023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor /299 Carlos Rodriguez Auto 18vmLOTTERY
  • $23.072021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor 151/299 Carlos Rodriguez Auto 13c1LOTTERY
  • $34.98Carlos Rodriguez 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO ORANGE Wave REFRACTOR 12/25 RC z1NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $39.98Carlos Rodriguez 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO ORANGE Wave REFRACTOR 12/25 RC z1NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Carlos Rodriguez #CPA-CR NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman 1st 23/50 Chrome Carlos Rodriguez 1st Bowman Auto Gold ShimmerNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Carlos Rodriguez Auto Autograph 1st Prospect #CPA-CR BrewersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Carlos Rodriguez #CPA-CR NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Carlos Rodriguez #CPA-CR NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Carlos Rodriguez 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto CPA-CRNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Refractor Auto /499 Carlos Rodriguez Brewers #CPA-CRNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Refractor /499 Carlos Rodriguez Auto 1st Bowman CPA-CR !NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now