Deal Sniper

Francisco Alvarez

C · Syracuse Mets · Triple-A · 24.0y · #3108 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

43 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

15 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2020 Bowman Chrome Francisco Alvarez AUTO… at $49.99. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Francisco Alvarez scores 43 out of 100 (#3108 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 14 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.

  • Plate discipline: below average

    7.1% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Premium position

    C — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    C sells at a discount at equal production; 24.0 is old for a prospect card.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    14 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2020 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-FA — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 3 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 3 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2020 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-FA

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 3 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

15 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 15 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 9 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2020 Bowman Chrome Francisco Alvarez AUTO 1st #CPA-FA PSA 9 Mint New York Mets

    base · PSA 9 · listed 8d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $49.99

    modeled ~$30.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Green Refractor 30/99 Francisco Alvarez PSA 10 GEM MT Auto RC 1st7

    /99 · PSA 10 · listed 5d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether the signature is factory-certified or added later

    $248.19

    modeled ~$129.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • FRANCISCO ALVAREZ 2020 Bowman Chrome Purple Refractor 1st Auto #d 220/250 PSA 9

    /250 · PSA 9 · listed 704d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $259.99

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Francisco Alvarez 2020 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 346d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $299.99

    modeled ~$8.04

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2020 Bowman Chrome Francisco Alvarez Mets Rc 1st AUTO Rookie Autograph PSA 9

    base · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 882d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $303.99

    modeled ~$30.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2020 Bowman Chrome 1st Francisco Alvarez AUTO CPAFA PSA 10. EBAY Guaranteed

    base · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 902d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $350.00

    modeled ~$124.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Francisco Alvarez, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $25.00–$52.49, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in psa 10 autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing PSA 10 autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $350.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $350.00 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Green Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $248.19, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $248.19 live
    Scarcity
    99 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -29%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Superfractor 1/1THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $5004.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $5004.98 live
    Scarcity
    1 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +1917%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

10 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 45 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 45 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    43

    below average · better than 24% at his level

    28.6% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    51

    average · better than 53% at his level

    .154 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    42

    below average · better than 20% at his level

    7.1% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    44

    below average · better than 29% at his level

    0 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    45

    below average · better than 32% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .671 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    61

    plus · better than 87% at his level · context, not a skill

    +2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 32th percentile of the cohort, production at the 32th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 32 and his production sits at 32, a gap of 0. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 46th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.3 / 10

  • already at Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

14

AVG

.231

OBP

.286

SLG

.385

OPS

.671

better than 32%

HR

0

SB

0

BB%

7.1

K%

28.6

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market15 listed · 15 eBay-verified · 9 not shown above
Listings
15

15 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$49.99
Median ask
$327.00
Cheapest 1st auto
$49.99
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$259.99

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 9 cards

  • $354.752020 Bowman Chrome 1st Francisco Alvarez AUTO PSA 10 CPAFA New York MetsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $375.982020 1st Bowman Chrome RC Autograph Francisco Alvarez SGC 10 10 Auto Rookie MetsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $499.952020 Bowman Chrome Francisco Alvarez 1st Bowman Atomic Refractor Auto 11/100NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $5004.982023 Bowman Chrome Francisco Alvarez Superfractor Rookie Auto #1/1 PSA 10 MetsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2020 Bowman Chrome Francisco Alvarez 1st Bowman Auto Refractor /499 PSA 10 cpafaNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2020 Bowman Chrome FRANCISCO ALVAREZ 1st Bowman AUTO #CPA-FA New York MetsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2020 Bowman Chrome Francisco Alvarez 1st Auto RC New York Mets CPA-FA RookieNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2020 Bowman Chrome Francisco Alvarez 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-FA PSA 9 Mets O764NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —🔥 FRANCISCO ALVAREZ 🔥2020 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO RC MINT PSA 9 HOT ROOKIE!💎💯NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now