Deal Sniper

Luken Baker

1B · Reno Aces · Triple-A · 29.0y · #5598 of 7,922 we rate

The player
LONG SHOT

24 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

22 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Something about this card rules it out no matter the price.

Our take

Long-shot prospect, untested market.

Luken Baker scores 24 out of 100 (#5598 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: plate discipline: above average — 13.3% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 73% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: age for the level — -3.0y vs his level at Triple-A puts him younger than only 17% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.

The signal

  • Old for the level

    -3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than only 17% of the players there.

  • Contact: below average

    28.0% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • OPS slipping

    .776 last season to .679 this one.

  • Power slipping

    .218 last season to .134 this one.

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Plate discipline: above average

    13.3% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 73% at his level.

Why now

  • 3 new copies listed this week

    Fresh supply on this exact card. More choice, and more downward pressure.

What could go wrong

  • Age for the level

    -3.0y vs his level at Triple-A puts him younger than only 17% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.

  • Corner-only profile

    1B carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2018 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CDA-LB — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2018 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CDA-LB

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

22 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 22 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 16 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2018 Bowman Chrome Draft~⭐LUKEN BAKER⭐ 1st Bowman《On✒Card AUTO》~CARDINALS

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 196d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $5.78

    modeled ~$8.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2019 Bowman Chrome 1st - Luken Baker #CDA-LB St. Louis Cardinals - AUTO

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 98d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.30

    modeled ~$8.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome #CDA-LB LUKEN BAKER Auto 1st Autograph SL Cardinals

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 140d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.50

    modeled ~$8.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Luken Baker #CDA-LB Auto 0o0

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 28d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $6.97

    modeled ~$8.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Luken Baker #CDA-LB Auto sc2

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 17d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $7.26

    modeled ~$8.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Luken Baker #CDA-LB Auto 0cx3

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 15d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $7.83

    modeled ~$8.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $5.78, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $5.78 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $57.57, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $57.57 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +896%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • True Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $9.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $9.99 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -83%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

6 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 48 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 48 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    43

    below average · better than 25% at his level

    28.0% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    48

    average · better than 42% at his level

    .134 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    56

    above average · better than 73% at his level

    13.3% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    44

    below average · better than 29% at his level

    0 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    46

    below average · better than 33% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .679 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    40

    well below · better than 17% at his level · context, not a skill

    -3.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 42th percentile of the cohort, production at the 33th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 42 and his production sits at 33, a gap of +9. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 61th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.1 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

211

AVG

.218

OBP

.327

SLG

.352

OPS

.679

better than 33%

HR

3

SB

0

BB%

13.3

K%

28.0

Is this player getting better?

Down from .776 to .679 OPS this season.

Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.776▼.679

Power

.218▼.134

Walks

14.2%→13.3%

Strikeouts

25.4%▲28.0%

Last season, 409 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market22 listed · 22 eBay-verified · 16 not shown above
Listings
22

22 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$5.78
Median ask
$11.61
Cheapest 1st auto
$5.78
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$9.99

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 16 cards

  • $9.992019 Bowman Chrome Luken Baker 1st Auto True Blue wave Refractor /150PASS
  • $10.992018 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Luken Baker #CDA-LB Auto 0d8PASS
  • $11.222018 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Luken Baker #CDA-LB Auto 4d3PASS
  • $11.99Luken Baker 2018 1st Bowman Chrome Draft Rookie Prospect Auto #CDA-LB CardinalsPASS
  • $13.292018 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Luken Baker #CDA-LB Auto jc3PASS
  • $16.25Luken Baker 2018 Topps 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CDA-LB St. Louis CardinalsPASS
  • $25.572018 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Blue Refractor Luken Baker BGS 9 Auto 10 113/150PASS
  • $30.682019 Bowman Chrome Mega Box Luken Baker Auto PSA 9 Mint #BMA-LB AutographPASS
  • $30.682019 Bowman Chrome Mega Box Luken Baker Auto PSA 9 Mint #BMA-LB AutographPASS
  • $37.392018 Bowman Chrome Draft Luken Baker AUTOGRAPH AUTO #CDA-LB RC Rookie PSA 10 GEMPASS
  • $40.872018 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Blue Refractor Luken Baker BGS 9 MINT Auto 0rfPASS
  • $57.572018 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Purple Refractor /250 Luken Baker #CDA-LB Auto 0g4PASS
  • —2018 Bowman Chrome CDA-LB Bowman 1st Luken Baker RC Auto /71 Sparkle CardinalsPASS
  • —2018 1st Bowman Chrome Auto LUKEN BAKER - St Louis CardinalsPASS
  • —2018 Bowman Chrome Luken Baker Purple Refractor 1st Rookie Auto /250 CardinalsPASS
  • —2019 Bowman Chrome Mega Box Luken Baker Chrome Mega Auto PSA 9 MintPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now