Deal Sniper

Roderick Arias

SS · Double-A · 21.0y · #509 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

64 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

16 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2022 Roderick Arias Bowman Chrome Purple… at $85.75. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Roderick Arias scores 64 out of 100 (#509 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 78 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.

  • Contact: well below

    33.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Speed: above average

    31 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 72% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    Low-A to Double-A.

  • Premium position

    SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Power: above average

    .169 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 67% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    78 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 40 on the 20–80 scale (33.3% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

16 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 16 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 10 are under "The whole live market".

  • Roderick Arias 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st AUTO True Green /99 PSA 9 🔥🔥🔥

    /99 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 164d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    —

    sold $99

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Roderick Arias Bowman Chrome Purple Refractor 1st Auto /250

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $85.75

    modeled ~$43.42

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Heritage Chrome Prospect Refractor 83/99 Roderick Arias Auto 0m4q

    /99 · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d

    Not a core card · 2 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $91.78

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome - Prospects Roderick Arias #CPA-RA Refractor /499 (RC) Auto

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 3d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $131.50

    modeled ~$49.80

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Roderick Arias 1st #CPA-RA Auto Purple 52/250 Arena 9.5 Mint+

    /250 · raw · takes offers · listed 11d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $170.50

    modeled ~$22.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Roderick Arias Refractor Auto 438/499 Yankees Silver RC

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 34d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $267.98

    modeled ~$49.80

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Roderick Arias, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $42.88–$90.04, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $131.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $131.50 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Purple /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $170.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $170.50 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +30%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $85.75, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $85.75 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -50%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $91.78, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $91.78 live
    Scarcity
    99 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +7%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Mini Diamond /50THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $336.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $336.99 live
    Scarcity
    50 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +267%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

6 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 48 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 48 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    40

    well below · better than 16% at his level

    33.3% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    54

    above average · better than 67% at his level

    .169 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    41

    well below · better than 18% at his level

    6.4% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    56

    above average · better than 72% at his level

    31 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    57

    above average · better than 75% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .797 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    69

    plus-plus · better than 97% at his level · context, not a skill

    +3.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 43th percentile of the cohort, production at the 75th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 93% of the players he is measured against.

The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.

How this is read: his skills average 43 and his production sits at 75, a gap of -32. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 7th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.5 / 10

  • already at Double-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

78

AVG

.282

OBP

.346

SLG

.451

OPS

.797

better than 75%

HR

1

SB

4

BB%

6.4

K%

33.3

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .640 to .797 after moving up to Double-A. That is the shape of a breakout.

Moved up from Low-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.640▲.797

Power

.107▲.169

Walks

14.0%▼6.4%

Strikeouts

28.8%▲33.3%

Last season, 465 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market16 listed · 16 eBay-verified · 10 not shown above
Listings
16

16 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$85.75
Median ask
$267.98
Cheapest 1st auto
$85.75
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$85.75

Latest eBay verification: 7 hours ago.

The other 10 cards

  • $267.982022 Bowman Chrome 1st Roderick Arias Refractor Auto 332/499 ROOKIE PSA MINT 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $267.982022 Bowman Chrome 1st Roderick Arias Refractor Auto 119/499 RC SGC GEM MINT 9.5NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $267.982022 Bowman Chrome 1st Roderick Arias Refractor Auto 388/499 Yankees Silver RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $336.99Roderick Arias 1st /50 Auto Gold Mini Diamond 2022 Bowman Chrome #CPA-RA YankeesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $354.00Roderick Arias 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Refractor /499 #CPA-RA NY YankeesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Roderick Arias 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Blue Raywave /150 PSA 10 Gem YankeesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Roderick Arias Auto Speckle Refractor 1st #/299 BGS 9 🔥🔥🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Roderick Arias Blue Raywave Refractor 1st Auto /150 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Roderick Arias 2022 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CPA-RA Yankees ( READ DESCRIPTION )NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Roderick Arias 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Purple /250 RC CPA-RA YankeesPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now