Elian Peña
SS · High-A · 18.0y · #2085 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait for a better price
49 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
44 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is Elian Pena 2025 Bowman Chrome Signed Auto… at $61.49. Needs a $25 drop.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Elian Peña scores 49 out of 100 (#2085 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +5.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 100% of the players there.
His core Bowman card has been selling at $43–49 off 4 confirmed sales.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 29 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Young for the level
+5.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 100% of the players there.
Power: well below
.000 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
OPS slipping
.949 last season to .401 this one.
Power slipping
.236 last season to .000 this one.
Plate discipline: plus
17.2% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 87% at his level.
Moved up and held it
Rookie to High-A.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
29 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Swing-and-miss
Contact grades 37 on the 20–80 scale (37.9% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-EP — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 6 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
$43.24–48.76midpoint $46.00
Confirmed· 4 salesmost recent 2026-08-24 · 7 listed now
- 7 days
- not enough sales
- 30 days
- not enough sales
- 90 days
- not enough sales
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-EP
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 6 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2025 Bowman Chrome Elian Pena 1st Prospect Auto 1/1 Superfractor Mets CPA-EP at $95,000, 206422% over the $45–46 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
1/1 at or under $45 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- Needs a $25 drop
- Elian Pena 2025 Bowman Chrome Signed Auto… at or under $36.80 delivered.
- On his best-priced card: waiting on sales.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
44 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 44 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 38 are under "The whole live market".
2025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Elian Pena 1st Auto HTA Choice #CPA-EP /150 PSA 9
/150 · PSA 9 · auction · listed 2d
Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way
—
sold $219
WATCH
Elian Pena 2025 Bowman Chrome Green Lava Auto /99 PSA 10 1st Bowman
/99 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 16d
Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$680.00
modeled $351–369
WATCH
2025 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Elian Pena 1st Auto 89/199 Mets PSA 10
/199 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 5d
Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$725.00
modeled $264–277
WATCH
2025 Bowman Chrome Elian Pena 1st Chrome International Refractor Auto /5 PSA 9
/5 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 14d
Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$3999.99
modeled $435–467
WATCH
ELIAN PENA 2025 BOWMAN CHROME SAPPHIRE #CPSA-EP GREEN /99 1ST AUTO PSA 10 GEM
/99 · PSA 10 · listed 6d
Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $351–369
WATCH
2025 Bowman Chrome Elian Pena Auto Gold Shimmer Refractor 1st Prospect #/50 Mets
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 13d
Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$599.97
modeled $62.27–164
WATCH
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Elian Peña, just what the money can do today.
- Luke AdamsRefractor · /499$49.99Watch
- Christian MooreRefractor · /499$45.94Watch
- Luke AdamsGreen Mojo Refractor · /99$61.74Watch
Compared within $30.75–$64.56, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder10 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $61.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $61.49 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $204.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $204.99 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +233%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $304.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $304.98 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +49%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Sapphire /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $354.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $354.50 live
- Scarcity
- 199 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +16%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Reptilian Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $300.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $300.00 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -15%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $322.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $322.00 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +7%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Gold Shimmer Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $599.97, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $599.97 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +86%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Mini Diamond /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $606.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $606.00 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +1%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Mini Diamond Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $800.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $800.00 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +32%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Superfractor 1/1THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $95000.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $95000.00 live
- Scarcity
- 1 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +11775%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
11 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 44 on the 20–80 scale, against 492 hitters at High-A
What he is good at
skills overall 44 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 492 hitters at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
37
well below · better than 10% at his level
37.9% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
36
well below · better than 8% at his level
.000 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
61
plus · better than 87% at his level
17.2% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
43
below average · better than 25% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
34
bottom of the scale · better than 6% at his level · the result, not a skill
.401 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
80
elite · better than 100% at his level · context, not a skill
+5.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 33th percentile of the cohort, production at the 6th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 90% of the players he is measured against.
The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.
How this is read: his skills average 33 and his production sits at 6, a gap of +27. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 492 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 90th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 6.1 / 10
- young for High-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 492 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
29
AVG
.125
OBP
.276
SLG
.125
OPS
.401
better than 6%
HR
0
SB
0
BB%
17.2
K%
37.9
Is this player getting better?
Down from .949 to .401 OPS, but he moved up to High-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.
Moved up from Rookie to High-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.949▼.401
Power
.236▼.000
Walks
16.1%▲17.2%
Strikeouts
16.1%▲37.9%
Last season, 223 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market44 listed · 44 eBay-verified · 38 not shown above
- Listings
- 44
- Lowest seen
- $61.49
- Median ask
- $343.25
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $61.49
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $300.00
44 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 38 cards
- $606.002025 Bowman Chrome Elian Pena Gold Mini Diamond 1st Bowman Auto /50WATCH
- $775.002025 Bowman Chrome Elian Pena Auto Gold Shimmer Refractor 1st Prospect #/50 MetsWATCH
- $800.002025 Bowman Chrome Elian Pena Auto Gold Mini Diamond Refractor 1st #/50 MetsWATCH
- $322.002025 Bowman Chrome 1st Elian Pena Auto Green /99 CPA-EP Mets ProspectWATCH
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Elian Pena 1st Bowman Green Reptillian Refractor Auto /99WATCH
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Elian Pena 1st Bowman Mini Diamond Refractor Auto /100WATCH
- —2025 1st Bowman Chrome Elian Peña ColorMatch Blue Ray Wave RC Auto #CPA-EP /150WATCH
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Elian Pena 1st Bowman Mini Diamond Refractor Auto /100WATCH
- $354.502025 Bowman Sapphire Elian Pena 1st Bowman Auto /199WATCH
- $304.982025 Bowman Chrome Elian Pena 1st Bowman Auto Purple /250 MetsWATCH
- —Elian Pena 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st True Purple Refractor Auto /250 MetsWATCH
- —2025 Bowman Chrome ELIAN PENA 1st Purple Refractor Auto /250 CPA-EP - MetsWATCH
- —2025 Bowman Chrome ELIAN PENA 1st True Purple Refractor Auto # /250 🔥 MetsWATCH
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Elian Pena 1st Bowman Auto /250WATCH
- $325.002025 Bowman Chrome Elian Pena Auto Speckle Refractor 1st Prospect #/299 WATCH
- —Elian Pena 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Refractor Auto #216/499 New York Mets #CPA-EPWATCH
- —Elian Pena 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Refractor Auto #202/499 New York Mets #CPA-EPWATCH
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Elian Pena Auto Autograph Refractor 1st Prospect #/499 MetsWATCH
- —Elian Pena 1st Bowman Auto Chrome Refractor 345/499 #CPA-EP 2025 MetsWATCH
- —2025 Bowman Chrome ELIAN PENA 1st Bowman On Card Refractor Auto /499 🔥 MetsWATCH
- —Topps 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Elian Pena CPA-EP Auto /499 New York Mets MLBWATCH
- —2026 PSA 10 Pop 1 Elian Pena Bowman Chrome Auto /15 Mets #3 ProspectWATCH
- —2026 Bowman Chrome Elian Pena Orange Mojo Refractor Auto /25 New York MetsWATCH
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Elian Pena Refractor Auto #348/499 PSA 9PASS
- $204.992025 Bowman Chrome Elian Peña Prospect Speckle Refractor Auto /299PASS
- $324.992025 Bowman Chrome Elian Pena 1st Auto Purple Refractor /250 PSA 9 MetsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Elian Pena Auto (AU) PSA MetsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $61.49Elian Pena 2025 Bowman Chrome Signed Auto 1st Prospect Rookie MetsPASS
- $300.00Elian Pena 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto /150 Refractor Blue ReptilianPASS
- $301.492025 bowman chrome 1st Elian Pena psa 10 auto PASS
- $331.992025 BOWMAN CHROME ELIAN PENA 1ST AUTO Base # CPA-EPPASS
- $95000.002025 Bowman Chrome Elian Pena 1st Prospect Auto 1/1 Superfractor Mets CPA-EPPASS
- —ELIAN PENA 2025 BOWMAN CHROME #CPA-EP AUTO 1ST PROSPECT METS PSA 10 GEMPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Elian Pena 1st Auto Prospect #CPA-EP MetsPASS
- —Elian Peña 2025 Bowman Chrome #CPA-EP Mets 1st Chrome Prospects AutoPASS
- —ELIAN PENA 2025 BOWMAN CHROME #CPA-EP AUTO 1ST PROSPECT METSPASS
- —ELIAN PENA 2025 BOWMAN CHROME #CPA-EP AUTO 1ST PROSPECT METSPASS
- —🖋️ Elian Pena 1st Bowman On-Card Auto 🖋️ 2025 Bowman Chrome #CPA-EP MetsPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run