Sam Petersen
CF · Triple-A · 23.0y · #1347 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
56 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
8 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is SAM PETERSEN 2026 Bowman 1ST CHROME AUTO…. Evidence still thin.
Our take
Solid prospect, untested market.
Sam Petersen scores 56 out of 100 (#1347 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 95% of the players there.
His core Bowman card has been selling at $16–26 off 1 confirmed sale.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 71 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Young for the level
+3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 95% of the players there.
Contact: well below
32.4% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
OPS slipping
.888 last season to .658 this one.
Power slipping
.193 last season to .131 this one.
Speed: above average
25 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 76% at his level.
Moved up and held it
High-A to Triple-A.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
71 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Swing-and-miss
Contact grades 39 on the 20–80 scale (32.4% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2026 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-SP — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
$15.74–26.24midpoint $20.99
Model estimate· 1 salemost recent 2026-08-26 · 2 listed now
- 7 days
- not enough sales
- 30 days
- not enough sales
- 90 days
- not enough sales
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2026 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-SP
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.
What would make this a buy
- Evidence still thin
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
8 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 8 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 2 are under "The whole live market".
SAM PETERSEN 2026 Bowman 1ST CHROME AUTO #CPA-SP
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 20d
Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $17.83–28
PASS
Topps 2026 Bowman Chrome Sam Petersen Nationals 1st Bowman Auto RC CPA-SP
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 11d
Seller risk · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $17.83–28
PASS
2026 Bowman Chrome 1st Sam Petersen Auto CPA-SP Purple /250
/250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 3d
Seller risk · 3 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $25.28–36.40
PASS
2026 Bowman #CPA-SP Sam Petersen 1st Chrome Speckle Auto #/299
/299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$35.90
modeled $22.29–35
PASS
2026 Bowman Chrome Sam Petersen 1st Auto Blue /150
/150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 9d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$66.99
modeled $26.75–36.81
PASS
Sam Petersen 2026 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Orange Shimmer Refractor /25
/25 · raw · condition not stated · listed 55d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$279.99
modeled $53.50–84
PASS
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Sam Petersen, just what the money can do today.
- Pedro Ramírezbase$35.94Watch14% under fair value
Compared within $17.95–$37.70, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- Speckle /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $35.90, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $35.90 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Blue /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $66.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $66.99 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +87%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Orange Shimmer Refractor /25 and underTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $279.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $279.99 live
- Scarcity
- 25 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +318%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
What he is good atSkills 48 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 48 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
39
well below · better than 13% at his level
32.4% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
48
average · better than 41% at his level
.131 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
48
average · better than 41% at his level
9.9% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
57
above average · better than 76% at his level
25 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
44
below average · better than 29% at his level · the result, not a skill
.658 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
66
plus-plus · better than 95% at his level · context, not a skill
+3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 43th percentile of the cohort, production at the 29th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 43 and his production sits at 29, a gap of +14. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 69th percentile.
Will he get there?
Strong chance 7.2 / 10
- already at Triple-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
71
AVG
.213
OBP
.314
SLG
.344
OPS
.658
better than 29%
HR
2
SB
3
BB%
9.9
K%
32.4
Is this player getting better?
Down from .888 to .658 OPS, but he moved up to Triple-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.
Moved up from High-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.888▼.658
Power
.193▼.131
Walks
11.6%▼9.9%
Strikeouts
18.0%▲32.4%
Last season, 172 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market8 listed · 8 eBay-verified · 2 not shown above
- Listings
- 8
- Lowest live
- $35.90
- Median ask
- $66.99
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $35.90
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $35.90
8 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 2 cards
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run